Riddle Russia — Harvest of War: Russia’s Grain Export Boom Faces a Test ridl.io/harvest-of-war…

Switzerland just excluded a number of Russians from its sanctions lists.
Check this @Aivengo96 for @RiddleRussia for broader context

ridl.io/sanctions-with…

Russia spent two decades turning itself into a #grain superpower — the world’s top wheat exporter with roughly 21% of the global market and tens of billions in export revenue. Officials even called grain a “silent weapon.”
That model is now under real stress. Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea and Azov ports in 2026 have disrupted the routes that normally carry the bulk of Russian grain. Exports have fallen sharply, alternative corridors (Baltic, Caspian, even experimental Arctic shipments) cannot fully compensate, and domestic prices have collapsed. Many producers are selling below cost; a large share are operating at a loss. Importers in Africa and elsewhere are already diversifying.
Loginov’s analysis for @RiddleRussia shows how the war is forcing the Kremlin to prioritize military objectives over the full recovery of one of its few remaining high-value export sectors — with consequences for both Russian farmers and the global grain market.
Worth reading if you follow food security, commodity markets, or the economic side of the conflict:
ridl.io/harvest-of-war…

Russia built a grain superpower — top wheat exporter, “silent weapon.” Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea ports are now testing it: exports halved, farmers dumping grain at a loss, buyers diversifying.
Loginov on the limits of the boom:
ridl.io/harvest-of-war…

Russia has built a new pro-war cinema canon since 2022 — state-funded films meant to explain the Ukraine war and “re-educate” liberals. They’re formulaic, heavily subsidized, and consistently flop. Why?
ridl.io/explaining-the…

What are Russian propaganda films about the Ukraine war about, and why are they widely unpopular?
@RiddleRussia explains
ridl.io/explaining-the…

Russia has built a new pro-war cinema canon since 2022 — state-funded films meant to explain the Ukraine war and “re-educate” liberals. They’re formulaic, heavily subsidized, and consistently flop. Why?
ridl.io/explaining-the…

Three years ago I made the argument that we should locate the proximate cause of the war to Putin's developing ideological obsessions under conditions of unique agency. I have not stopped being right.
ridl.io/putin-s-agency…

Russia’s economy is crawling, not recovering. Growth at just 0.6% (Jan–Aug), real wages up but consumption and the civilian supply side eroding. Nominal gains mask a grinding slowdown heading into 2027.
@ntrickett16 for @RiddleRussia
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While Putin courts African leaders with multipolar talk and anti-West rhetoric in Moscow, a real war veteran mayor, in Kirov just got purged.
Nikita Gorelov (mobilized soldier turned local head) was sidelined despite the “veterans as new elite” PR.
The political bloc’s message: combat service alone isn’t enough—you need the right connections.
Andrey Pertsev @RiddleRussia on the limits of the veteran experiment. Link first comment

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, #Brazil-#Russia trade jumped from $7.3 bn to a record $12.4 bn in 2024. Russia is now a bigger supplier of diesel and fertilizers Brazil needs. Bigger, but still narrow and transactional — not a strategic alliance.
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Russia failed to turn the SCO into a unified diplomatic bloc supporting its position on Ukraine. The organization’s largest members avoided rhetoric endorsing Moscow’s actions and demonstrated no willingness to support its territorial claims.
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Divergence between U.S. and EU strategies can weaken overall pressure on Russia even without the formal lifting of sanctions. How exactly?
ridl.io/a-sanctions-re…

The Kremlin knows which Russian numbers Western analysts actually use—and how they use them. A clear checklist of the seven most common mistakes that turn official Russian data into misinformation.
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“Idealizing the past has become our national pastime. The rejection of constructing an imagined future is locking Russians in the present.”
@Vladi_Moscou on why so much of Russian discourse stays stuck looking backward. From 2021 but no less relevant.
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Putin did not create Russians’ fear of the future. He uses it. The result is a society that debates which version of the past to return to (1960s, 1980s, 1990s) more readily than it imagines something new.
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Still one of the sharper explanations for why “stability” remains such a powerful frame in Russian politics years later.
Full text - ridl.io/how-russians-l…

What does Putin want from the #SCO after 2022?
Not an anti-Western alliance—at least not yet. Moscow wants diplomatic visibility, sanctions resistance, and a stage for its multipolarity narrative.
But the SCO gives Russia much less than the Kremlin hoped.
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U.S. sanctions relief is giving Russia breathing room on oil exports — and quietly testing the credibility of the whole Western sanctions regime. How bad is it?
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