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Getting a few Qs on the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 thesis - rehashing the below but adding:
-I’m bullish stablecoins of all kinds - GENIUS-compliant or not. It’s a superior product than paper fiat and bank deposits in many use cases. It only accounts for $5-16T of adjusted transactions today. Credit cards are $35-40T, ACH is $100T. A lot more room to grow.
- $USDe is a superior product than many peers. It’s not GENIUS-compliant and that’s ok. It was never a competitor to $USDC. But for a meaningful amount of low-velocity users on @trondao it is superior to ethereum:0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7 and it just got added to the network. Multi-billion opportunity.
-@gdog97_ was always a Mt Rushmore figure in the current iteration of crypto next to @chameleon_jeff @PaulFrambot etc. but he didn’t really embrace the right tokenomics until the 90% sell-off post-10/10. The recent restructurings indicate he gets it. So now the product AND the token are both excellent.
-people underestimate exponential call options like Ethena pay, Robinhood chain, Tron, etc. you just need one to hit. P(hit) = 1 - (1-C1) * (1-C2)… * (1-Cn). Again we just need one.
Overall the story of $ENA is one of humans under appreciating the integral of exponential functions and the structural discount in “phoenix” comeback stories. This is it.
-I’m bullish stablecoins of all kinds - GENIUS-compliant or not. It’s a superior product than paper fiat and bank deposits in many use cases. It only accounts for $5-16T of adjusted transactions today. Credit cards are $35-40T, ACH is $100T. A lot more room to grow.
- $USDe is a superior product than many peers. It’s not GENIUS-compliant and that’s ok. It was never a competitor to $USDC. But for a meaningful amount of low-velocity users on @trondao it is superior to ethereum:0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7 and it just got added to the network. Multi-billion opportunity.
-@gdog97_ was always a Mt Rushmore figure in the current iteration of crypto next to @chameleon_jeff @PaulFrambot etc. but he didn’t really embrace the right tokenomics until the 90% sell-off post-10/10. The recent restructurings indicate he gets it. So now the product AND the token are both excellent.
-people underestimate exponential call options like Ethena pay, Robinhood chain, Tron, etc. you just need one to hit. P(hit) = 1 - (1-C1) * (1-C2)… * (1-Cn). Again we just need one.
Overall the story of $ENA is one of humans under appreciating the integral of exponential functions and the structural discount in “phoenix” comeback stories. This is it.
Let's spell out the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 and $USDE thesis very simply
Following the fee switch vote, the only thing that matters for ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 economics is USDE circulation, which is a function of on
Market cap has gone up $500M in a month and has been adding $20-$40M daily through the weekends
Underlying yield is boosted by greater funding rate arb in crypto and soon to take a stepwise jump when the rumored @tradexyz equity perp funding rate arb partnership kicks in
@RobinhoodCrypto Chain added $320M in 2 months. Just getting started.
Haven't seen any uplift yet from @EthenaPay but of course that's forthcoming too
Every trend says $7.5B is much, much closer than market gives credit for, and of course current valuations give zero value for any of the $10B+ ratchet-ups
And you get all this at a 40%+ effective discount by owning the DAT $USDC which most people don't even know is in existence
Yeah, we're running $PURR back all over again
CC: @tedchenCPC @gdog97_
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Goldman Sachs 13G out on $PURR - now own more than 12M shares or >5%, up from 3M shares last quarter.
I've called $ICE and $GS for a long time as the US institutional gateway for Hyperliquid onshoring. ICE prophecy is fulfilled; Goldman I believe is imminent. Bringing onboard a g-sn incredible act of validation, and Goldman's top notch prime brokerage business will win massively by being the first-mover on US RWA perps.
Hyperliquid
hyperliquid:native
I've called $ICE and $GS for a long time as the US institutional gateway for Hyperliquid onshoring. ICE prophecy is fulfilled; Goldman I believe is imminent. Bringing onboard a g-sn incredible act of validation, and Goldman's top notch prime brokerage business will win massively by being the first-mover on US RWA perps.
Hyperliquid
hyperliquid:native
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Not to be left out, Europe's largest pension manager joins in the equity L/S blow-up
Probably means funding into some sub-par external pod shops also getting pulled
#hedgefundgeddon
Probably means funding into some sub-par external pod shops also getting pulled
#hedgefundgeddon
Fresh meat for our “who fucked up” series: Arini
Already doing like shit but absolute trash -32% YTD for a credit fund through end-Oct
Apparently CCC bonds follow the turkey distribution
#hedgefundgeddon
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Wow big bounce back in $USDE circulation and almost above $5B - what drove this? ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061
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Best read so far on $NVDA situation
Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang:
Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives
The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them.
The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington
Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry."
But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence.
Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses."
The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks
Look at the timing of the two reports.
On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military.
One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation
As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO.
In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds.
Conclusion
"The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through."
Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore.
The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.
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War is fucking over
POTUS clearly recognizes that the vast majority of Americans are disgusted with Israel. Strikingly, he seems confused about why that's the case.
Americans are evidently sick and tired of Israel bamboozling US administrations into Forever Wars. They had enough. So has our region.
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I don't see why these war bloodthirsty warmongers keep re-tweeting doom porn accounts on Iran when the 60 Minute interview with @POTUS basically made it clear the war is over
I guess you can still escalate if Hegseth literally defies Trump? That's about it
youtube.com/watch?v=JklRXl…
I guess you can still escalate if Hegseth literally defies Trump? That's about it
youtube.com/watch?v=JklRXl…
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Good to see futures up after the entire timeline predicted Black Monday for the last 5 hours
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Unpopular opinion:
What if Jensen was the honeydick in this dynamic and sold a bunch of shitty chips to China that didn't work as promised, hence they've never been able to catch up to the frontier
Fucking patriot (?)
$NVDA
What if Jensen was the honeydick in this dynamic and sold a bunch of shitty chips to China that didn't work as promised, hence they've never been able to catch up to the frontier
Fucking patriot (?)
$NVDA
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If you still hold ethereum:native over hyperliquid:native you might be brain dead
The founder is telling you in the face he doesn’t give a shit about revenue generation
And hyperliquid:native will gain more moneyness than ethereum:native ever did
The founder is telling you in the face he doesn’t give a shit about revenue generation
And hyperliquid:native will gain more moneyness than ethereum:native ever did
Expanding on why I believe "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token".
Three primary reasons:
1. ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed
2. Optimizing for ETH as fee-burning token would demand Ethereum and ETH function in ways that are very hard to make compatible with decentralization and capture resistance.
3. Meanwhile, optimizing for ETH as SoV is aligned with Ethereum focusing on its unique strengths (decentralization and CROPS)
EIP-1559 (including its burn) is fine and good, we should keep them. But we should not feel sad if fee burn is < 10% of breakeven indefinitely; the value of ETH comes from elsewhere.
The core idea: the big thing that people appreciate about Ethereum is decentralization and CROPS. The main pragmatic benefit that these things translate into is stability. SoV is the category where that is not an unneeded extra we merely put effort into for ideological reasons, but rather a pragmatic strength from the perspective of people putting in their assets. And in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued.
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Fresh meat for our “who fucked up” series: Arini
Already doing like shit but absolute trash -32% YTD for a credit fund through end-Oct
Apparently CCC bonds follow the turkey distribution
#hedgefundgeddon
Already doing like shit but absolute trash -32% YTD for a credit fund through end-Oct
Apparently CCC bonds follow the turkey distribution
#hedgefundgeddon
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Today was not a risk-on day. Significant selling pressure in the cripples earlier in the day - $WULF went from +12% to down on huge volumes then drifted back to +12%. Not sure if you can read much, but I think the forced HF liquidations are over.
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