Time heals all and this is the country of second chances.
But
$NVDA is in a downtrend
The $SMH is in a downtrend
The $QQQ is in a downtrend
My job does not involve trying to guess when the downtrend ends
But
$NVDA is in a downtrend
The $SMH is in a downtrend
The $QQQ is in a downtrend
My job does not involve trying to guess when the downtrend ends
NVDA has roughly 24 billion shares outstanding, still think this scandal fades in the public consciousness and Jensen stays in his role
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Great convo with Chris as always! Covering the scenarios I’m patiently waiting for over the coming days and weeks!
💥 FREE SCAN + VIDEO 💥
👉 EXACT Trade Plans for Market Chaos + Major Announcement with @RealSimpleAriel & @Chris_J_Lance
investorsunderground.com/free-scan-nove…
$MRVL $LITE $CRWV $ORCL $SNDK $STX $WDC $AMD $NVDA $DELL $DOCU $TOST $XYZ $ANF $ELF $LLY $CROX $SN $SPOT $VEEV $FIGS $ABNB $DAL $RCL $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO $DVN
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Because it raises questions about his integrity and judgment.
We're talking about the man running one of the most important companies of the 21st century. He's responsible for making decisions that impact trillions of dollars in shareholder value.
I'm sure you'd agree that character and personal judgment matter when you're entrusted with that level of responsibility?
We're talking about the man running one of the most important companies of the 21st century. He's responsible for making decisions that impact trillions of dollars in shareholder value.
I'm sure you'd agree that character and personal judgment matter when you're entrusted with that level of responsibility?
Unless he was definitively sharing trade secrets with this woman I don’t see why cheating on his wife matters to Nvidia.
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Now imagine a scenario where @JensenHuang is removed as CEO or conveniently decides to "step down on his own."
Now imagine another scenario where Lori Huang becomes Jensen's ex-wife and pulls a MacKenzie Scott, relentlessly unloading shares and T-bagging long term holders with nonstop selling pressure.
You want to know how the technology sector goes from nearly 40% of the S&P 500 to just 25%?
This certainly looks like one way it could happen.
Now imagine another scenario where Lori Huang becomes Jensen's ex-wife and pulls a MacKenzie Scott, relentlessly unloading shares and T-bagging long term holders with nonstop selling pressure.
You want to know how the technology sector goes from nearly 40% of the S&P 500 to just 25%?
This certainly looks like one way it could happen.
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So he did fall for the honeypot! Damn this is not a good month to be @JensenHuang. Good thing we live in the land of second chances.
$NVDA CEO JENSEN HUANG’S DRAFT MEMO TO EMPLOYEES, OBTAINED BY AXIOS.
“I owe my family and all of you an apology.”
“I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.”
“Leading NVIDIA is the privilege of my mitted to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.”
Regarding the national security investigation:
“I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.”
“My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.”
NVIDIA’s board has launched an independent investigation into reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.
The board says it currently has no reason to believe U.S. national security or NVIDIA’s secrets were compromised.
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Next Week Look Ahead: 3 Scenarios I'm Preparing For
- Friday was completely uneventful. The groups bouncing, like Uranium and Aerospace & Defense, are already sporting wildly broken charts. Not much there that interests me.
The three scenarios I'm most prepared for next week:
- 1. Oooking for an oversold rally in some of the most stretched growth names. These have been absolutely dismantled, and at some point, they're going to offer a tradable bounce.
$LITE $INTC $MRVL $AAOI $NBIS $STX $SNDK $DELL $TER
- 2. Follow Through Day (FTD). Patiently waiting for a legitimate FTD before getting more aggressive with names that have displayed the strongest relative strength over the last few weeks, along with some recent earnings winners.
$CROX $SPOT $GKOS $LLY $ELF $TOST $XLF $EBAY $CPAY These are the names I'd be far more comfortable pursuing if the broader market starts showing signs of a sustainable turn.
- 3. Mean Reversion Back Into Supply. If I don't get a solid bounce trade on, I'll patiently wait for mean reversion back into overhead supply. The declining 20/50/200-day moving averages and resistance gaps are my primary areas of interest. I'd much rather look for shorts into those levels than chase names after they've already been crushed.
- Bottom Line: It's hard to find much else worth doing in this market besides remaining patient and letting the trades come to me. I don't need to predict the next move. I need to be prepared for it.
- Friday was completely uneventful. The groups bouncing, like Uranium and Aerospace & Defense, are already sporting wildly broken charts. Not much there that interests me.
The three scenarios I'm most prepared for next week:
- 1. Oooking for an oversold rally in some of the most stretched growth names. These have been absolutely dismantled, and at some point, they're going to offer a tradable bounce.
$LITE $INTC $MRVL $AAOI $NBIS $STX $SNDK $DELL $TER
- 2. Follow Through Day (FTD). Patiently waiting for a legitimate FTD before getting more aggressive with names that have displayed the strongest relative strength over the last few weeks, along with some recent earnings winners.
$CROX $SPOT $GKOS $LLY $ELF $TOST $XLF $EBAY $CPAY These are the names I'd be far more comfortable pursuing if the broader market starts showing signs of a sustainable turn.
- 3. Mean Reversion Back Into Supply. If I don't get a solid bounce trade on, I'll patiently wait for mean reversion back into overhead supply. The declining 20/50/200-day moving averages and resistance gaps are my primary areas of interest. I'd much rather look for shorts into those levels than chase names after they've already been crushed.
- Bottom Line: It's hard to find much else worth doing in this market besides remaining patient and letting the trades come to me. I don't need to predict the next move. I need to be prepared for it.
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Something about the music from the 70s-80s just hits different on a Saturday morning 🎶
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How long until they postpone their IPO? $ANT
MAJOR INVESTORS ARE SKEPTICAL ANTHROPIC IPO CAN ACHIEVE $1.5 TRILLION VALUATION - WSJ
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11/6/2026: Are we having (fun)ds yet, or are we just watching them blow up?
- $QQQ posts its worst day in 5 years and breaking the Leo low set in July.
- $SPY also closing down 4.5% today. Every single sector closed in the red inside the S&P.
- Names cut in half or worse in 3 week$DELL $LITE $MRVL $NBIS $INTC.
- $USO finished in the green today but the market was so weak that even $XLE couldn't muster up a bounce.
- $DRAM down 18% is almost comical to witness.
- $FOTO $WGMI already in established downtrends speeding up as well. 13-14% down respectively. $IREN $CIFR $NBIS unwinding a years worth of gains! $LITE looks like it's in a hurry to go flat on the year.
- Nothing was meaningfully higher today that is even worth mentioning unless you were looking at the VIX or inverse ETF's.
- The choices from here: 1. Look for and play the mean reversion trade which we inevitably get. Ideally that happens next week. 2. Track names showing RS and wait for a follow through day (make sure to adhere to progressive exposure) because leadership right now is in consumer staples. 3. Let growth names bounce and look to short them into declining key moving averages.
- Hope you have all stayed safe.
- $QQQ posts its worst day in 5 years and breaking the Leo low set in July.
- $SPY also closing down 4.5% today. Every single sector closed in the red inside the S&P.
- Names cut in half or worse in 3 week$DELL $LITE $MRVL $NBIS $INTC.
- $USO finished in the green today but the market was so weak that even $XLE couldn't muster up a bounce.
- $DRAM down 18% is almost comical to witness.
- $FOTO $WGMI already in established downtrends speeding up as well. 13-14% down respectively. $IREN $CIFR $NBIS unwinding a years worth of gains! $LITE looks like it's in a hurry to go flat on the year.
- Nothing was meaningfully higher today that is even worth mentioning unless you were looking at the VIX or inverse ETF's.
- The choices from here: 1. Look for and play the mean reversion trade which we inevitably get. Ideally that happens next week. 2. Track names showing RS and wait for a follow through day (make sure to adhere to progressive exposure) because leadership right now is in consumer staples. 3. Let growth names bounce and look to short them into declining key moving averages.
- Hope you have all stayed safe.
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Pretty sure this isn’t how $SNDK envisioned its 8-for-1 stock split playing out.
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When $AAOI was at $200, people were begging for a pullback to $160.
At $160, we were told it was a gift.
At $120, an even bigger and better gift.
At $100, they’re starting to look a little stunned.
At $80, the pain sets in as they realize they might not get their money back.
At $60, they’re frozen.
Now you’re at $40, and the likelihood of getting back to breakeven on those heavy bags anytime soon is looking increasingly slim.
The 50SMA could have saved you so much money and frustration if you had simply stopped arguing with it.
But some people would rather be right than make money.
If you’re a retail trader, YOU DO NOT need to trade like an institution. You have the luxury of exiting quickly and getting back in when calmer waters return.
If you’ve lost a significant amount of money during this unwind, now is the perfect time to reflect on the mistakes you made and figure out how to avoid repeating them.
And let’s be clear: Both the vertical moves higher and the massive unwinds WILL happen again.
The market will continue to teach these lessons over and over.
The question is, will you actually learn from them?
At $160, we were told it was a gift.
At $120, an even bigger and better gift.
At $100, they’re starting to look a little stunned.
At $80, the pain sets in as they realize they might not get their money back.
At $60, they’re frozen.
Now you’re at $40, and the likelihood of getting back to breakeven on those heavy bags anytime soon is looking increasingly slim.
The 50SMA could have saved you so much money and frustration if you had simply stopped arguing with it.
But some people would rather be right than make money.
If you’re a retail trader, YOU DO NOT need to trade like an institution. You have the luxury of exiting quickly and getting back in when calmer waters return.
If you’ve lost a significant amount of money during this unwind, now is the perfect time to reflect on the mistakes you made and figure out how to avoid repeating them.
And let’s be clear: Both the vertical moves higher and the massive unwinds WILL happen again.
The market will continue to teach these lessons over and over.
The question is, will you actually learn from them?
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Ariel Hernandez retweeted
Today I met with a veteran investor who argued that memory stocks are not cheap even at a P/E of 3. Below is an edited version of our conversation.
Memory LTAs are basically meaningless. The best the LTAs being signed today can do is get customers to shoulder part of the memory makers' capex. Once prices fall, customers will gladly forfeit their deposits (prepayments) and walk away from the LTAs.
Historically, whenever prices fell more than 60% from the peak, customers broke their LTAs even after signing them.
So even if a 2027 shortage is certain and the stocks trade at a P/E of 3 on 2027 operating profit, 2028 operating profit is uncertain, which makes it hard to justify a higher valuation.
He went on to argue that even if 2028 operating profit were certain, we would still have to account for 2029 operating profit.
I pushed back and asked why the market doesn't discount TSMC the same way. Why does TSMC get such a high valuation? Wouldn't TSMC also take a big hit if the AI boom fades?
His answer: the problem was how violently memory prices rose in the first place.
If memory makers had raised prices in a healthy way like TSMC, it might be a different story. But because they hiked prices like a commodity, the market has no choice but to treat memory stocks like commodity stocks.
Even if memory makers stay in shortage through 2030, he said, the market will price in the risk of oversupply in 2031.
He closed his argument this way: even at 3x 2027 earnings, if memory prices fall in 2028 by enough to break LTAs, that 3x multiple on 2027 works out to 7.8 to 10x on 2028. So current valuations are not cheap.
Memory LTAs are basically meaningless. The best the LTAs being signed today can do is get customers to shoulder part of the memory makers' capex. Once prices fall, customers will gladly forfeit their deposits (prepayments) and walk away from the LTAs.
Historically, whenever prices fell more than 60% from the peak, customers broke their LTAs even after signing them.
So even if a 2027 shortage is certain and the stocks trade at a P/E of 3 on 2027 operating profit, 2028 operating profit is uncertain, which makes it hard to justify a higher valuation.
He went on to argue that even if 2028 operating profit were certain, we would still have to account for 2029 operating profit.
I pushed back and asked why the market doesn't discount TSMC the same way. Why does TSMC get such a high valuation? Wouldn't TSMC also take a big hit if the AI boom fades?
His answer: the problem was how violently memory prices rose in the first place.
If memory makers had raised prices in a healthy way like TSMC, it might be a different story. But because they hiked prices like a commodity, the market has no choice but to treat memory stocks like commodity stocks.
Even if memory makers stay in shortage through 2030, he said, the market will price in the risk of oversupply in 2031.
He closed his argument this way: even at 3x 2027 earnings, if memory prices fall in 2028 by enough to break LTAs, that 3x multiple on 2027 works out to 7.8 to 10x on 2028. So current valuations are not cheap.
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