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Housing starts swing wildly. Annoying I know.
Linear trend always “up,” polynomial shows the cycle (better fit with data).
Can we get to the mythical supply-sider green line where volatility is suppressed + more supply + more empty units...which presumably drives price⬇️?
Linear trend always “up,” polynomial shows the cycle (better fit with data).
Can we get to the mythical supply-sider green line where volatility is suppressed + more supply + more empty units...which presumably drives price⬇️?
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I'm with Jeremiah.
I know folks are click-mining on here, but I would suggest chilling out on the dog crates and the rentals.
You live in cities people. Plus we way under-built PBRs, relying on condo investors for too long to contribute to the rental pool.
I know folks are click-mining on here, but I would suggest chilling out on the dog crates and the rentals.
You live in cities people. Plus we way under-built PBRs, relying on condo investors for too long to contribute to the rental pool.
For the record the majority of ownership is held by private owners.
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Correct!
And if we are 4M short, folks should really start thinking about abandoning what they are doing and get into the homebuilding industry. Like now.
4M is ~16-years worth of housing at the current rate of production.
It's a lot.
And if we are 4M short, folks should really start thinking about abandoning what they are doing and get into the homebuilding industry. Like now.
4M is ~16-years worth of housing at the current rate of production.
It's a lot.
F'IN HOW?!!?
HOW!?!
Human beings NEED A LITERAL House to live in! .... and we're 4 MILLION SHORT.
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RBC's note of the immigration numbers switch-up explains it nicely.
Have a look...
rbc.com/en/economics/c….
Have a look...
rbc.com/en/economics/c….
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Finally folks are coming around. You can use whatever catchy phrase you want to describe it.
San Francisco has not recovered it's population loss since the pandemic...why the high home prices?
Price is set at the margins.
Now get on WoWA and buy a mortgage.
San Francisco has not recovered it's population loss since the pandemic...why the high home prices?
Price is set at the margins.
Now get on WoWA and buy a mortgage.
because house prices are measured in dollars, not population growth
excellent research as always by @HanifBayat and the crew at @WOWA_Canada
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The "dog crate condo" thing is a feeling, it's for people who have no control of themselves emotionally.
Also, small units serve a purpose, there is a segment of the population that wants them.
Good on Howard for debunking this stuff...
Also, small units serve a purpose, there is a segment of the population that wants them.
Good on Howard for debunking this stuff...
For my latest story, I wanted to see whether there was truth to the narrative that developers are stuck with unsold condos cause they built too many studios and 1BRs. #vanRE
The data seems to disprove that, as 2/3 are 2BRs and 3BRs. Here's why:
theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/ar…
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Does this mean the new housing system eliminates the inherent cyclicality of housing production and we establish a brand new trend where we just produce more of it?
New report! MMI was happy to work with the National Housing and Investment Initiative (NHII), a group composed of leaders from Canada’s building industry and largest banks, on a report outlining ways to improve Canada's housing system.
Read here: bildgta.ca/building-indus…
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Remember folks, the "limited time" offer on the GST "rebate" is to incentivize demand during a period of slow or falling sales.
A permanent GST rebate just means a repricing of inputs over time.
I've got fingers crossed for ever lower rates, forever.
A permanent GST rebate just means a repricing of inputs over time.
I've got fingers crossed for ever lower rates, forever.
The Big Five banks and the biggest builders just teamed up on one ask list for Ottawa. Top of it: make Ontario's new-home HST rebate permanent.
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Did population growth make homes unaffordable?
Short answer: it played a role, but not the main one.
📊 25 metros, 20 years:
🇨🇦
• Montreal: 👥 slowest growth → 📈 fastest price gains
• Vancouver: 👥 fastest growth → 📉 smallest price gains
🇺🇸
• Orlando grew 10x faster ce growth
• LA & Chicago lost people → prices still up 5%+/yr
💡 What matters most: how fast supply responds
My latest in @globeandmail 👇
—-----------------------------------
Provided by WOWA
Simply Know Your Options🔍
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What does this even mean?
Lol
Lol
As we advance, Canada needs to choose a pro-growth mindset, just as Canadians have throughout our history. Instead of trying to shrink our country, we should continue growing by welcoming new immigrants, while also removing regulatory barriers to housing construction, investing e the potential of every Canadian, and continuing to bring down internal trade barriers while signing free trade deals with as many countries as we can, to generate the kind of prosperity that both attracts newcomers and makes it easier for Canadians to build families.
Read more here: spencerfernando.substack.com/p/canadas-popu…
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Correct.
The average person does not care about housing supply, sales volumes--only the cost of ownership and price appreciation when they become owners.
The average person does not care about housing supply, sales volumes--only the cost of ownership and price appreciation when they become owners.
New Homes and Growth Coalition piece. Politicians and governments talk about housing solutions in terms of increasing housing starts. Canadians, however, think in terms of affordability and availability.
Read here: homesandgrowth.ca/p/canadians-do…
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There are three variables:
People coming
People leaving
Construction of schools and the purchase of desks
You don't need to build new schools if net number of students stays the same.
People coming
People leaving
Construction of schools and the purchase of desks
You don't need to build new schools if net number of students stays the same.
It's not true.
Imagine a Grade 5 and Grade 6 class with 30 desks and 30 students each. Each student is expected to graduate.
But five Grade 6 students are held back. Now you'll have 35 students &30 desks in Grade 6. That's a shortage, despite the 5 students were "already here".
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Carney keeps saying how well Canada is doing on the foreign direct investment front compared to other nations.
Do we want foreign direct investment or not?
Do we want foreign direct investment or not?
The Carney government says its budget is about Canada’s economic sovereignty
The same budget lets foreign investors buy up Canada’s new homes
You can’t have both 🧵
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It's true!
There will be a contingency that wants fewer immigrants and those that want more.
How does it get resolved?
There will be a contingency that wants fewer immigrants and those that want more.
How does it get resolved?
Your periodic reminder:
The alleged ‘consensus on immigration’ was among political parties, MSM, talking heads and the Punditocracy.
There was NO such consensus among Canadians.
Claims that the consensus existed are an elaborate scam.
Details here 👇
darshanmaharaja.ca/how-the-immigr…
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Finally
Announcement! Today we launched the Homes and Growth Coalition, bringing together organizations across the housing supply chain, to develop a comprehensive policy blueprint to restore middle-class housing affordability across Canada.
Read here: homesandgrowth.ca/p/canada-needs…
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