Oracle of Olari retweeted
The problem isn’t that AI is intelligent. It isn’t. The problem is that too many adults (but not all) are at once mechanistic, imitative, unimaginative, stupid, formulaic, influenceable, & gullible, arrogant beyond their skill set, & too expensive to maintain.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
We are about 2 steps from Donald having the FBI blow up some apartment blocks as an excuse to cancel the mid-terms.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
I just saw the prices at my local gas station and now I'm searching for flights to Iran to help with the negotiations
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
Heard from a neolab friend:
“Even if we fail to train the best model, we locked in GPU capacity early. H100/B200/B300 rental prices have since gone up 2–3x. We can just resell the compute and print money.”
OK, so that’s the business model.
“Even if we fail to train the best model, we locked in GPU capacity early. H100/B200/B300 rental prices have since gone up 2–3x. We can just resell the compute and print money.”
OK, so that’s the business model.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
Things are heating up.
Next week is going to be insane. Iran is going to do everything in its power to keep oil high going into midterms.
Grab your popcorn 🍿
Next week is going to be insane. Iran is going to do everything in its power to keep oil high going into midterms.
Grab your popcorn 🍿
BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis announce they just struck Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline and multiple of its pumping stations, as well as 6 other Saudi targets, including Saudi Aramco oil facilities.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
@brent_e_traderissing the point Brent. $CRWV is so beyo$CRWVrewed that $NVDA is using u$NVDAlosed terms to allow the company to not default on its contract by allowing accrual of $6 billion of $NVDA chips as “$NVDAnts payable” on their balance sheet in hopes someone will lend them money to repay Nvidia. S&P Global warned on Friday that ratings agencies no longer can track true debt and future liabilities of the largest hyperscalers and Neo-clouds because of complicated and opaque deals and undisclosed SPV contracts and lending.
$NBIS pain comes whenever the convertibles mature, not now. The current Nebius pain isn’t fundamental, but tied to the aforementioned $NVDA channel stuffing on essentially illiquid companies its covering up.
You need to follow the bonds and underlying obvious collapse on $NVDA structure. Show me any company outside $CRWV that wasn’t already bankrupt when near term liabilities of “accrued expenses” and “accounts payable” reached 100% of annual revenue and 30% marketcap of a company.
Nebius is fine until the converts exercise, but it’s not hard for bond experts to look at the books and see that the underlying system is failing and being covered up. Bonds don’t go to 16% YTM for no reason. CoreWeave is essentially illiquid and Nvidia is afraid when it defaults the bubble pops. They can’t secure the debt, because $CRWV has basically already defaulted on its obligations to $NVDA which could constitute securities fraud and prison time for Jensen etc for acknowledging the default via bailout without disclosure.
$NBIS pain comes whenever the convertibles mature, not now. The current Nebius pain isn’t fundamental, but tied to the aforementioned $NVDA channel stuffing on essentially illiquid companies its covering up.
You need to follow the bonds and underlying obvious collapse on $NVDA structure. Show me any company outside $CRWV that wasn’t already bankrupt when near term liabilities of “accrued expenses” and “accounts payable” reached 100% of annual revenue and 30% marketcap of a company.
Nebius is fine until the converts exercise, but it’s not hard for bond experts to look at the books and see that the underlying system is failing and being covered up. Bonds don’t go to 16% YTM for no reason. CoreWeave is essentially illiquid and Nvidia is afraid when it defaults the bubble pops. They can’t secure the debt, because $CRWV has basically already defaulted on its obligations to $NVDA which could constitute securities fraud and prison time for Jensen etc for acknowledging the default via bailout without disclosure.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
It’s actually REALLY embarrassing analysts are spewing bullshit about $CRWV and someone with 399 followers has a more solid grasp of the dire situation CoreWeave is in (and how it’s consequently related to $NVDA hiding channel stuffing as “accounts payable” on Neo-Cloud balance sheets.
@rdd147 $CRWV never made a single dime of net income on a cumulative basis. Because of the accumulated deficit , shareholders' equity is almost cut in half.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
When people start to write postmortems of the GenAI crash, this will be a popular statistic:
venturebeat.com/infrastructure…
venturebeat.com/infrastructure…
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
I want to be fair to $NBIS but more importantly show how close $CRWV may really be to default. The hallmark of near term default risk is hiding cash flow problems and losses as liabilities.
Since $NBIS is nowhere near the default risk of $CRWV they don’t have “accrued expenses” combine “accrued expenses” and “accounts payable”
For CoreWeave “Accrued Expenses” is money they owe to hardware suppliers for obligations they made that they are now struggling to make good on. (Although it’s impossible for us to know how the suppliers are working with CoreWeave on re-payment terms, could be 6 months or 5 years if $NVDA wants to keep hiding channel stuffing).
I’m not a fan of any Neo-Cloud over the next 3-5 years, so this isn’t an endorsement of $NBIS necessarily. $CRWV will be lucky if they ever see 2028.
CoreWeave facing typical near term bankruptcy
Since $NBIS is nowhere near the default risk of $CRWV they don’t have “accrued expenses” combine “accrued expenses” and “accounts payable”
For CoreWeave “Accrued Expenses” is money they owe to hardware suppliers for obligations they made that they are now struggling to make good on. (Although it’s impossible for us to know how the suppliers are working with CoreWeave on re-payment terms, could be 6 months or 5 years if $NVDA wants to keep hiding channel stuffing).
I’m not a fan of any Neo-Cloud over the next 3-5 years, so this isn’t an endorsement of $NBIS necessarily. $CRWV will be lucky if they ever see 2028.
CoreWeave facing typical near term bankruptcy
One of the ways we look at default risk in bonds is to investigate accounts payable vs receivable and accrued expenses.
Two red flags are falling accounts receivable with rising accounts payable as well as increasing accrued expenses.
People overlook the numbers, but it shows to hide cash flow and losses on their balance sheet as liabilities.
For $CRWV trending toward what you see in defaults; especially accrued expenses. You can see the cash they’re raising through bonds, share sales, and convertibles isn’t for debt or expansion, it’s for paying down major past due bills that are piling up that haven’t been paid.
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
“Far left” and it’s just a mfer saying a full time job should cover rent and groceries.a
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
Interpret this how you will, but more than a third of AI spend by the top 1% of firms is already going to compute
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
We're at the point where it's obvious who the first cycle people are
Unfortunately everyone must learn the lesson of risk management eventually
Unfortunately everyone must learn the lesson of risk management eventually
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Oracle of Olari retweeted
Whoopsies
Since nailing every call to date, it would be uncharacteristic for me not to tackle my next major path setting for the main crypto trading algorithmic instruments that have been used for nefarious activities.
Aside from their useless fundamentals, the technicals are painting a is depicting a complex head and shoulders pattern, while Ethereum is showing a broadening pattern yet to complete the fifth reference point, which it is currently in the progress of doing.
Targets should be met sometime next year at much lower levels.
Hope this helps.
Yours truly,
The Great Martis. ✨
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