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We invest up to 2M in pre-seed and seed stage companies building at the intersection of:
-Money
-Manufacturing
-Movement (supply chain)
-Marketplaces
Mostly B2B, only in North America
DMs are always open
-Money
-Manufacturing
-Movement (supply chain)
-Marketplaces
Mostly B2B, only in North America
DMs are always open
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AI forecasting elections better than experts? We will see! Fun one: GPT 6.1 Sol is the only one that thinks democrats can win Iowa - astra thinks its a perfect 50/50 tossup and everyone else thinks the republican will win. Time will tell if OpenAI is right. Great work @thoughtfullab
Can AI forecast elections better than experts and prediction markets?
We built BallotBench to find out: a live benchmark where 9 frontier AI agents compete to predict the 2026 US midterms, from today through Election Day, Nov 3.
Follow along → ballotbench.com
Watch earch, revise their predictions, and make their calls all in live feeds.
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Scrolling X for five minutes: Omg someone is building everything and has raised so much money, market is taken. It's too late.
Talking to any large private or public company CEO: Uh, we don't use AI, working on a strategy, also how do we price agents?
Don't even get me started on consumer.
It is so early. Go build.
Talking to any large private or public company CEO: Uh, we don't use AI, working on a strategy, also how do we price agents?
Don't even get me started on consumer.
It is so early. Go build.
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Was reading about a self made billionaire who rarely does interviews. He was asked what he did to celebrate his first massive financial win. "Had a steak and glass of wine with my wife". Think about this every day. This is the way.
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If I invested in all of the companies that when referenced someone said “total dumpster fire, stay away” I would be 100x more successful. Hope that helps.
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None of the personal AI assistants have figured out shopping and all should be using Mate at minimum - make our lives easier (and cheaper)
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Crazy to see notable seed funds closing up shop and not because they weren't crushing. Game on the field is nothing like it was. Many reorienting around growth. Many believe you either have a super small fund writing flyer checks behind top funds or are able to write 5M+ checks at seed with no ownership requirements. Thinking about this a lot.
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If you asked me what the last company on Earth I would want to build, my answer would be a mortgage loan origination system. Extremely dated industry, painful implementations, very long sales cycles and a brutal interest rate environment.
Founders @michael_yu and @ydev left have spent the past six years building and implementing the perfect platform for AI agents to automate mortgage originations. We will live in a world very soon where we can get approved for a mortgage and close on a home in 7 days. Vesta has closed a few of the largest mortgage lenders in the country like PennyMac and are seeing massive efficiency gains. Six years in and still early. Lucky to be an early investor!
Founders @michael_yu and @ydev left have spent the past six years building and implementing the perfect platform for AI agents to automate mortgage originations. We will live in a world very soon where we can get approved for a mortgage and close on a home in 7 days. Vesta has closed a few of the largest mortgage lenders in the country like PennyMac and are seeing massive efficiency gains. Six years in and still early. Lucky to be an early investor!
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Pre Discipulus Demo Day dinner followed by the best demo day yet. Wild 24 hours in LA. Crazy that @jakobdiepen started DV just a few years ago with a small fund and brute forced an entire El Segundo industrial tech movement. And shout out to his new team member Chase who was bc traffic was so bad and TMZ showed up thinking it was some hot celebrity event. Hope they got good pics of @shaunmmaguire @isaiah_p_taylor !!
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Q3 2026 pre-seed and seed round sizes and valuations that we saw as a firm:
Met with 87 companies (18 pre-seed, 69 seed)
Average pre-seed round size: $3.18M
Average post-money valuation: $26M
Average seed round size: $5.36M
Average post-money valuation: $35M
Certainly the least dilutive quarter we've seen in awhile
Met with 87 companies (18 pre-seed, 69 seed)
Average pre-seed round size: $3.18M
Average post-money valuation: $26M
Average seed round size: $5.36M
Average post-money valuation: $35M
Certainly the least dilutive quarter we've seen in awhile
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Perfect day in LA to host a big crew of deeptech investors and founders for dinner. Need to fuel up before one of my favorite events of the year tomorrow at @jakobdiepen DV Demo Day 👀
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Factory shaping up to be an early Anthropic - what better VC to invest than Matt Murphy who led Anthropics Series D. Go @matanSF and team!
Menlo is investing in @FactoryAI 🚀
Proud to back Factory as they build the system that automates the entire software lifecycle: planning, review, testing, security, documentation, all of it.
Coding has gone from $550M to $30B+ in two years, but generation was only one piece. Factory closes the rest of the loop with a shared, governed, model-agnostic platform.
Excited to partner with @matanSF and @EnoReyes, and to witness their talent and vision firsthand.
More from @mmurph: menlovc.com/perspective/me…
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Apparently you can book a witch on Etsy to manifest on your behalf anything you want or cast spells. First profile I looked at has had an account for 1 year and done $70k in sales. You submit basic info and they email you your reading/plan. Probably entirely driven by AI. Margins must be nuts.
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Got renderings of a new data center build. Modern farmhouse look. People are going to try and live in these soon enough.
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Set two good friends up on a blind date. Booked a res for them on Friday. Somehow told one that it was Saturday and the other Friday. Someone had dinner alone last night. AMA.
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Hosted the coolest workout bright and early on the Sky Deck this morning in NYC. Coach and portfolio founder Shawn Booth kicked everyone’s butt. Easily the most incredible venue to do a workout. Thank you to the founders and investors who showed up at 7am! More of this to come. obusiness and @deel for sponsoring.
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