NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
9h
Much of the U.S. could see above-normal precipitation next week. The highest probabilities (60 to 70%) are centered over the Central and Southern Plains.
The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook issued November 9, 2026, and valid for November 17 to November 23, 2026. Chances for above-normal precipitation are indicated across the majority of the country, including California, the Southwest, the Great Basin/Intermountain West, the Rockies, the Plains, the Mississippi Valleys, the Great Lakes, and the Southeast. The highest probabilities (60 to 70 percent) are centered over the Central and Southern Plains. Near-normal precipitation is forecast for the northernmost parts of the Northwest Pacific, Northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, along with a secondary band stretching across parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and southern Middle Atlantic. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Northeast and the northern Middle Atlantic with probabilities reaching 40 to 50 percent over northernmost parts of New England, and 33 to 40 percent chances over the rest of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.
2
32
220
9,596
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Nov 6
Potential atmospheric river activity could impact parts of the West Coast including heavy rain, high elevation snow, and high winds. Plain text version of the infographic at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messag…
Potential atmospheric river activity could bring enhanced moisture to much of the West Coast during mid-November. Strong surface low pressure just north of the region could also likely drive high winds along the immediate coastline. A fair amount of uncertainty continues regarding the exact timing and magnitude of rainfall and winds. Moderate risk (40 to 60%) of heavy precipitation shown for Nov 14 to 15 across parts of southwestern OR and northern/central CA, while a slight risk (20 to 40%) extends to Nov 17 across the West Coast into the Southwest, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies. A moderate risk of high winds shown for the immediate West Coast Nov 14 to 15 and broader slight risk across the West until Nov 17. Moderate risk of heavy snow for higher elevations of the Klamath and Sierra Nevada Nov 14 to 15. Slight risks of heavy snow to Nov 17 for high elevations of the Cascades, Klamath, and Sierra Nevada, Northern Intermountain, Great Basin, and Central and Northern Rockies.
6
30
184
15,530
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Nov 5
Potential atmospheric river activity could bring enhanced moisture to much of the West Coast during mid-November. There is increased uncertainty regarding the potential for heavy precipitation. Strong surface low pressure north of the region will also likely drive high winds along the immediate coastline. Moderate risk (40 to 60%) of heavy precipitation shown for Nov 13 to 15 across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern/central California, with slight risk (20 to 40%) extends to Nov 17 across the West Coast into the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies. High winds are possible across much of the West, including a moderate risk along the immediate West Coast Nov 13 to 15 and broader slight risk to Nov 17. Moderate risk of heavy snow across the higher elevations of the Klamath and Sierra Nevada Nov 13 to 15. Slight risks of heavy snow extend to Nov 17 for these areas as well as the Northern Intermountain, Great Basin, and Central and Northern Rockies.
4
28
208
27,476
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Nov 2
Atmospheric River Expected to Affect the West Coast states
Heavy Precipitation, High Wind, and Flooding risks for the western United States, valid November 10-16. There is a high risk (over 60 percent) of heavy precipitation across the West Coast states from northern California through the Northwest November 10-12, accompanied by the potential for flooding in lower elevations. A moderate risk (40 to 60 percent) extends through November 14 and includes central California. A moderate risk (40 to 60 percent) of high winds extends along coastal portions of the West Coast November 10-14. Slight risks of heavy precipitation and high winds cover large parts of the West through November 16. Heavy Snowfall risks for the western United States, valid November 10-16. A high risk (over 60 percent) of heavy snow is indicated across the Washington Cascades 10-12, with a moderate risk (40 to 60 percent) extending farther south to include the southern Cascades, Klamath, and Sierra Nevada ranges through November 14. A slight risk continues through November 16
41
177
1,509
212,907
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Oct 26
Periods of heavy precipitation and high elevation snow are possible across parts of Northern California and the Pacific Northwest next week due to an approaching mid-level low pressure system. Coastal high winds and localized flooding are also possible within the risk areas.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook released October 26, 2026 for the period of November 3 to 9, 2026 indicates a moderate risk (40 to 60 percent chance) of heavy precipitation for portions of southwestern Oregon and northwestern California November 6 to 8, and a moderate risk of heavy snow for portions of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades Nov 6 to 8. Slight risk (20 to 40 percent chance) of heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Nov 5 to 9, along with slight risks of heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath and northern Sierra Nevada ranges Nov 5 to 9.
0
28
167
17,939
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Oct 22
Much of the U.S. is leaning toward a wet end to October into the beginning of November! Above-normal precipitation is broadly favored, with the strongest probabilities focused over parts of coastal southern California and the Southwest, and lower chances elsewhere.
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued October 22, 2026 valid October 30 to November 5, 2026 depicts broad chances of above-normal precipitation over much of the U.S. 60 to 70 percent chances of above-normal precipitation are indicated over coastal southern California, southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. 50 to 60 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of California, stretching through the southern half of Nevada and Utah, into Oklahoma and most of Texas. Broader 40 to 50 percent chances and 33 to 40 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of the U.S., with the exception of Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and New England, where near-normal precipitation is favored.
10
56
375
22,016
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Oct 21
There is an increasing chance of an unusually wet Halloween for southern California. One or more low pressure systems interacting with enhanced Pacific moisture favor above-normal precipitation across California and the Southwest from Oct 29-Nov 4.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook issued October 21, 2026, and valid October 29-November 4, depicts greater than a 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation across much of central and southern California and more than a 50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation throughout the Southwest.
1
60
350
15,647
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Oct 20
Redesign of the Drought Outlook and what drought changes are forecast through January 2027
The Drought Outlook was released on October 15, 2026 and its valid period begins on October 15, 2026 and ends on January 31, 2027. This product depicts the forecast change in drought category, such as removal, improvement, no changes, development, or worsening.
0
21
86
7,321
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Oct 8
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/
5
143
406
32,827
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Oct 2
An extended period of wet weather is likely across much of the Southeast at least through next week. Periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible, especially across northern Florida and adjacent areas of the Gulf Coast, Georgia, and Alabama, into next weekend.
Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook across the southeastern Contiguous United States valid October 8-12 2026. Probabilities of above normal rainfall exceeds 60 percent across much of the Florida Panhandle and above 50 percent across much of the remainder of the eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast.Climate Prediction Center Risk of Heavy Rain and Flooding valid for the period of October 10-16 2026. A Moderate Risk of Heavy Rain is indicated across northern Florida and adjacent areas of the Gulf Coast and southern Georgia and Alabama, with flooding possible across many of these same areas.
0
10
21
3,509
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Sep 10
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/
8
157
402
51,048
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Sep 1
An unsettled pattern and widespread above-normal precipitation are favored for the West through mid-September. Potential for tropical moisture may produce heavy rainfall for some areas, especially the Southwest.
6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook issued September 1, 2026, valid September 7 to 11, 2026. A 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers much of the interior West, including eastern California, the Northern and Central Great Basin, the Southwest, and parts of the Northern and Central Rockies. A 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation spans parts of the Pacific Northwest, California, Southwest, and Northern and Central Plains. A broad area of 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers much of the western and central United States.8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook issued September 1, 2026, valid September 9 to 15, 2026. A broad area of 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers much of the western United States, excepting the Olympic Peninsula in the Northwest Pacific region, which is forecast to have near-normal precipitation. 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation stretches from the Southwest northward through the Central and Northern Great Basin into parts of the Northern Rockies. A 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers southern California and southwestern Arizona.
9
53
493
24,221
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Aug 31
Above normal precipitation is likely to continue across Hawaii past Labor Day weekend as tropical activity remains elevated across the eastern and central Pacific. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest developments (nhc.noaa.gov).
The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Precipitation Outlook issued August 31, 2026 for the period of September 8 to 14, 2026 indicates a greater than 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation for the Big Island of Hawaii and a greater than 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation for the remainder of the Island Chain.
0
7
19
4,907
NWS Climate Prediction Center retweeted
NWS Weather Prediction Center
@NWSWPC
Aug 27
Here are the latest Key Messages for the ongoing heat wave. Dangerous heat will continue through the end of the week over the Southwest and re-build across the South Central U.S. this weekend into next week.
Dangerous heat will persist across the Southwest through Friday with daytime highs of 110-115°F. Expect numerous daily record highs and Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Little overnight relief is expected as many areas may not cool below 80°F for several nights in a row. Temperatures return to near-normal levels over the weekend. Dangerous heat will build across the Southern Plains again beginning this weekend, and persist into next week. Daytime highs of 95-105°F, with limited recovery at night due to lows only in the mid-70s (°F), will result in widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Increased chances for extreme heat continue into early Sep. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of extreme heat remains highlighted across the south-central CONUS and Lower and Middle Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys, Sep 4-6. Limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to A/C or cooling centers. Check on vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors. Never leave kids or pets unattended in vehicles.
4
28
64
21,610
NWS Climate Prediction Center retweeted
NWS Weather Prediction Center
@NWSWPC
Aug 19
Dangerous heat will persist across the Southeast and build into the south-central U.S. through the end of the month.

Stay hydrated and limit your time outdoors to protect yourself!

Get the latest details at weather.gov
4
27
74
12,989
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Aug 18
El Nino and the MJO favor an active East and Central Pacific with a significant chance of tropical cyclone development from August 26 to September 8. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/preci…
The Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released August 18, 2026 for the valid period of August 26, 2026 through September 8, 2026. More than a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development is indicated for the East Pacific from August 26 to September 1; with a 40 to 60 percent chance closer to the Central Pacific. From September 2-8, a 20 to 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development is designated for the East and Central Pacific. This product is updated once per week and targets broad scale conditions integrated over a 7-day period for US interests only. This graphic does not indicate track or potential landfall of tropical systems. Refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
0
9
30
4,516
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Aug 17
Extreme Heat and Rapid Onset Drought over the Southern U.S.
Key Message for Extreme Heat and Rapid Onset Drought over the Southern U.S. issued Aug 17, 2026. For Aug 25 to 31, over 60 percent chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated across much of the Southwest, Central, and Southern U.S. 70 to 80 percent chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated over southwestern Texas. A high risk (greater than 60 percent chance) of extreme heat covers the parts of the Southern and Central Plains, adjacent areas of the Mississippi Valley Aug 25 to 26. Moderate risk (40 to 60 percent chance) of extreme heat indicated for much of the Central and Southern Plains, Rockies, Desert Southwest, parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent parts of the Southeast Aug 25 to 28. Slight risk (20 to 40 percent chance) of extreme heat indicated for portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast Aug 25 to 31. Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for
2
32
90
16,351
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Aug 13
Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought
Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought issued August 10, 2026, updated August 13, 2026, for August 21–27. A greater than 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast for August 21–27. A high risk (greater than 60 percent chance) of extreme heat affects the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley August 21, with heat indices possibly reaching over 105 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit and near-record overnight lows possible. A moderate risk (40 to 60 percent) is indicated for the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast August 21 to 23, and a slight risk indicated for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic August 21 to 27. Rapid Onset Drought is underway across the Central/Southern Plains and
1
25
62
10,444
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Aug 13
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/
25
245
696
117,836
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPC
Aug 10
Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought
Key Message of extreme heat for much of the South-Central and Southeastern U.S. released August 10, 2026, for August 18-24. a) The CPC Week-2 temperature outlook depicts large probabilities (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Aug 18 to 24. b) The risk of hazardous temperatures depicts a high risk (60 to 80 percent chance) of extreme heat across parts of the Central and Southern Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Moderate (40 to60 percent chance) and slight (20 to 40 percent chance) risks of extreme heat for a broader area of the south-central and southeastern U.S. and are valid from Aug 18 to 22 and Aug 18 to 24, respectively. A Rapid Onset Drought risk is posted for parts of the Southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and Lower Mississippi Valley.
5
21
61
15,825
Load more