Pinned Tweet
So excited that this will be out in the world tomorrow! And grateful to everyone who helped make it happen.
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Last year, we predicted Medicaid cuts were a risky move for Republicans. Now we're seeing it on the ground.
Reupping our @Briefing_Book piece (w/ @MikeGeruso and @danielposthumu2 ) on how a program once associated with Democratic constituencies has become central for stest in frontline districts where Republicans face the most competition.
Reupping our @Briefing_Book piece (w/ @MikeGeruso and @danielposthumu2 ) on how a program once associated with Democratic constituencies has become central for stest in frontline districts where Republicans face the most competition.
Mike Johnson spent the wknd talking up his Medicaid cuts
Once upon a time, Medicaid cuts might have been an easy sell to his caucus
Today, it’s tougher
New @Briefing_Book piece (w @MikeGeruso @danielposthumu2) on the rise of Medicaid in red districts
Highlights and link 👇
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Overpopulation has been the big worry for decades. So why should we care about population decline?
Economist @MikeGeruso makes the case for people: fewer people means fewer ideas, smaller markets, and less capacity to solve big problems.
Listen now → bit.ly/4y5Y9Nd
Economist @MikeGeruso makes the case for people: fewer people means fewer ideas, smaller markets, and less capacity to solve big problems.
Listen now → bit.ly/4y5Y9Nd
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Many national and intl agencies project that declining fertility rates will stabilize or rebound—e.g to TFR at 1.6. But that’s not consistent with what has happened on avg in countries and periods that have previously reached (and fallen through) those levels.
Population projections often assume that future fertility rates will stop declining after falling below some threshold, but that is at odds with global historical patterns, from Diane Coffey, @MikeGeruso, Dean Spears, and Sangita Vyas nber.org/papers/w35824
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Michael Geruso retweeted
A few hours ago, INEGI, the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography, a government agency, published its Encuesta Intercensal (EIC) 2025 (intercensal survey 2025).
Here is the press release:
inegi.org.mx/app/saladepren…
Page 9 reports the total fertility rate (TFR). s TFR for 2024 at 1.2 (screenshot in Spanish below). Yes, 1.2, only slightly above Japan’s level in the same year (1.15). By 2026, Mexico’s TFR could fall below Japan’s.
I don’t find words to describe this.
Here is the press release:
inegi.org.mx/app/saladepren…
Page 9 reports the total fertility rate (TFR). s TFR for 2024 at 1.2 (screenshot in Spanish below). Yes, 1.2, only slightly above Japan’s level in the same year (1.15). By 2026, Mexico’s TFR could fall below Japan’s.
I don’t find words to describe this.
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Fun game, draw a random life out of what we know about the entire history of human population statistics.
I died at six months old in Bronze Age Southeast Asia.
anyhumanever.com
I died at six months old in Bronze Age Southeast Asia.
anyhumanever.com
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Michael Geruso retweeted
This might be the most beautiful thing I've read in my life. What a privilege to be alive in 2026.
ordinaryabundance.com
ordinaryabundance.com
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Michael Geruso retweeted
For about three decades, scholars have argued that if men did more childcare and housework, the fertility rate would rise. The first part is happening, but the second is not.
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/08/…
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/08/…
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Daughter back from sleep-away camp - reported that one morning all the girls were saying they don’t want to have kids, it will be better for their careers, plus it’s better for the world since the population is too big…(the Ehrlich legacy just won’t die…)…
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Most explanations of collapsing birth rates picture adults who never have kids at all. @MikeGeruso & Dean Spears (NBER, 2025) decompose the decline: childlessness explains only 38% of it in rich countries. The fall is mostly parents having fewer children.
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Michael Geruso retweeted
How will your country's demographics change this century?
At Our World in Data we built a tool to let you see for yourself.
The UN's assumptions are the starting point.
But then you can adjust the three drivers of change — births, deaths, and migration — to what you expect.
At Our World in Data we built a tool to let you see for yourself.
The UN's assumptions are the starting point.
But then you can adjust the three drivers of change — births, deaths, and migration — to what you expect.
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Michael Geruso retweeted
What if the population crisis isn’t too many people, but too few? Falling birth rates could reshape growth, climate, and prosperity.
Join @MikeGeruso this Friday as he explores one of the century’s biggest shifts and its impact on our future.
Register → zurl.co/9y873
Join @MikeGeruso this Friday as he explores one of the century’s biggest shifts and its impact on our future.
Register → zurl.co/9y873
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Michael Geruso retweeted
This graph and headline should have made everyone scratch their head!
The 40 year olds who allegedly “caught up” had much higher fertility at 30 years old than 30 year olds today do!
The 40 year olds who allegedly “caught up” had much higher fertility at 30 years old than 30 year olds today do!
This graph is pretty striking, it makes you think most women are having fewer kids by age 30, but then catch up.
But if you line up the birth cohorts, you see that fertility at age 30 *strongly* predicts fertility at age 45.
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Upon further consideration, I was too neutral about this article.
It is contorting itself to make a point that is not supported by the data.
It's still possible the 1990 cohorts will reach 2 birth per woman. But you should bet against it.
x.com/paulnovosad/st…
It is contorting itself to make a point that is not supported by the data.
It's still possible the 1990 cohorts will reach 2 birth per woman. But you should bet against it.
x.com/paulnovosad/st…
Here's what the Upshot's graph looks like when we do it in number of births instead of % changes.
This was a felony-level chart crime.
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Michael Geruso retweeted
A nice reminder to check out "After the Spike" by Dean Spears and @MikeGeruso!
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Michael Geruso retweeted
This is an interesting new paper on the likelihood of persistently low global fertility in the "Journal of Economic Perspectives".
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Michael Geruso retweeted
I am grateful to our authors and our core editing team -- @ProfJAParker, @TimothyTTaylor, and Jeff Kling) for all of the work behind this winter 2026 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Available open-access (as always) here: aeaweb.org/issues/836
Available open-access (as always) here: aeaweb.org/issues/836
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Last week, @HDRUNDP engaged with the faculty, students, and researchers of @UTAustin to consult on key themes and analytical directions of the forthcoming 2026 Human Development Report and to advance joint research on development outcomes, fertility dynamics, and their links to ndex.
Key points discussed at the #HDR2026 consultation hosted by the @UTPopCenter include:
• Population decline ≠ solution to climate change 🌍
• Focus on drivers: consumption, production, tech & policy
• Aspirational, actionable framing with the concept of Nature Relationship Index (NRI)
Visit our website to learn more and stay tuned for updates on the forthcoming Report!
👉hdr.undp.org/content/announ…
Key points discussed at the #HDR2026 consultation hosted by the @UTPopCenter include:
• Population decline ≠ solution to climate change 🌍
• Focus on drivers: consumption, production, tech & policy
• Aspirational, actionable framing with the concept of Nature Relationship Index (NRI)
Visit our website to learn more and stay tuned for updates on the forthcoming Report!
👉hdr.undp.org/content/announ…
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Michael Geruso retweeted
As a former economist in Biden's CEA, if I tried to frame an analysis as "Biden v. Trump" states or "Red v. Blue" states, I would have been fired (or at least heavily disciplined) because it was simply the case that we were working for all Americans, not just Biden voters.
Trump posted several slides from the briefing that the CEA gave him after they crunched some of the jobs numbers on Thursday.
One of the slides provided this high-level overview:
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Dean Spears and Michael Geruso’s new book, “After the Spike,” considers how depopulation will transform the world—and argues that societies should make an effort to stabilize population levels. Read @JenniferSciubba’s review.
foreignaffairs.com/reviews/depopu…
foreignaffairs.com/reviews/depopu…
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Michael Geruso retweeted
Michael Cannon seems fond of saying that research by a Biden advisor (me) found that Obamacare made things worse for sick patients. He's made that claim again just now in the WSJ. The only problems are 1) I’ve never said it, and 2) my work certainly doesn't show it.
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