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Keeping an eye on the long range MJO forecasts
CFS has some MJO activity across the Pacific around mid November
This could lead to a risk of the first real cold snap of the "season" in late Nov/early Dec
Other factors involved but something to watch
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
CFS has some MJO activity across the Pacific around mid November
This could lead to a risk of the first real cold snap of the "season" in late Nov/early Dec
Other factors involved but something to watch
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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Still an interesting signal from the ECM seasonal for winter
Higher than average heights to the NW
Would give a greater chance of colder weather at times, especially further North
Let’s see
#UKweather
Higher than average heights to the NW
Would give a greater chance of colder weather at times, especially further North
Let’s see
#UKweather
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Had a rough few weeks with mental health but slowly getting back in business
I am super excited for scenes like the ones below to return to the fells, and my suspicion is that it might not be too far away
Winter coverage of the mountains will be coming
#LakeDistrict
I am super excited for scenes like the ones below to return to the fells, and my suspicion is that it might not be too far away
Winter coverage of the mountains will be coming
#LakeDistrict
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Still a long way to go, but that period very end of November through first week or 2 of Dec is still of interest to cold fans
Keeping an eye on the long range MJO forecasts
CFS has some MJO activity across the Pacific around mid November
This could lead to a risk of the first real cold snap of the "season" in late Nov/early Dec
Other factors involved but something to watch
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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MetRyan retweeted
Keeping an eye on the long range MJO forecasts
CFS has some MJO activity across the Pacific around mid November
This could lead to a risk of the first real cold snap of the "season" in late Nov/early Dec
Other factors involved but something to watch
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
CFS has some MJO activity across the Pacific around mid November
This could lead to a risk of the first real cold snap of the "season" in late Nov/early Dec
Other factors involved but something to watch
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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MetRyan retweeted
November
Plenty high pressure, more unsettled late on
High pressure to 9th, maybe something a touch unsettled 10-13th before more high pressure, particularly in the South
More widely unsettled possible late on, small chance of colder air, especially in North
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
Plenty high pressure, more unsettled late on
High pressure to 9th, maybe something a touch unsettled 10-13th before more high pressure, particularly in the South
More widely unsettled possible late on, small chance of colder air, especially in North
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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November
Plenty high pressure, more unsettled late on
High pressure to 9th, maybe something a touch unsettled 10-13th before more high pressure, particularly in the South
More widely unsettled possible late on, small chance of colder air, especially in North
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
Plenty high pressure, more unsettled late on
High pressure to 9th, maybe something a touch unsettled 10-13th before more high pressure, particularly in the South
More widely unsettled possible late on, small chance of colder air, especially in North
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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Looking very atmospheric in the Lakes!
Sky feels so heavy
Would love to be on the top of Great Gable this evening!
#LakeDistrict
Sky feels so heavy
Would love to be on the top of Great Gable this evening!
#LakeDistrict
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MetRyan retweeted
So then
High pressure to end October, and lasting through first 7-10 days of November seems likely
Plenty dry weather, risk of fog and inversions perhaps
Wind becoming light
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
High pressure to end October, and lasting through first 7-10 days of November seems likely
Plenty dry weather, risk of fog and inversions perhaps
Wind becoming light
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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Models struggling with MJO
Some getting MJO into phase 3
Thats heights to the E, just like what we've got coming up, if that were to develop again combined with any "drips" from SSW, then the potential would be there for some colder air to feed in from the NE, later in Nov.
culation
Some getting MJO into phase 3
Thats heights to the E, just like what we've got coming up, if that were to develop again combined with any "drips" from SSW, then the potential would be there for some colder air to feed in from the NE, later in Nov.
culation
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How things aloft develop after this SSW is really unknown
The seasonal models didnt see this on their October updates
SO do we see a weak PV continue well into winter, with the trop leading the way? Or do we see a rapid recovery with a quick imprint lower down(meaning more unsettled perhaps)?
Do we still see a big disruption later in winter like the seasonals modelled?
Lots of spinning plates
The seasonal models didnt see this on their October updates
SO do we see a weak PV continue well into winter, with the trop leading the way? Or do we see a rapid recovery with a quick imprint lower down(meaning more unsettled perhaps)?
Do we still see a big disruption later in winter like the seasonals modelled?
Lots of spinning plates
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We are looking at a strong disruption of the Polar Vortex
Could become a technical SSW, which would be the earliest recorded
What does this mean?
Very hard to tell at the moment. We could see blocking patterns mid/late Nov into Dec, but this is uncertain
#UKweather
Could become a technical SSW, which would be the earliest recorded
What does this mean?
Very hard to tell at the moment. We could see blocking patterns mid/late Nov into Dec, but this is uncertain
#UKweather
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So then
High pressure to end October, and lasting through first 7-10 days of November seems likely
Plenty dry weather, risk of fog and inversions perhaps
Wind becoming light
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
High pressure to end October, and lasting through first 7-10 days of November seems likely
Plenty dry weather, risk of fog and inversions perhaps
Wind becoming light
#UKweather #LakeDistrict
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