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Actions will forever speak louder than words, but unhurried conversations (& allowing replies) let ideas breathe.
Great sitting down with @captnhayz and @Bjirke again, we covered some essentials and plenty of unexpected detours, made for a great conversation.
Great sitting down with @captnhayz and @Bjirke again, we covered some essentials and plenty of unexpected detours, made for a great conversation.
“Show me, don’t tell me.”
Back with @MattVisser (CEO of @SonicLabs). Straight talk on $USSD, Frax rails, Spawn, token supply and more!
Top 5 Timestamps:
02:45 – $USSD as preferred settlement (Frax × Sonic)
18:23 – USSD transportability across chains
24:00 – Spawn’s economic Token supply, belief & the Sonic Marines
48:00 – “If I could delete the Mint button, I would”
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Rare to see this said with receipts this detailed.
"Zeitgeist gambling" is catching a falling knife, with your eyes closed, on a unicycle with a flat tire.
The edge isn't playing the game better. It's not playing.
"Zeitgeist gambling" is catching a falling knife, with your eyes closed, on a unicycle with a flat tire.
The edge isn't playing the game better. It's not playing.
The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino
Since late August we have recorded every trade on every pump fun and Stonk launch on Solana. Not a sample. All of it: 384 million swaps from 7.7 million wallets across more than a million pools, every bonding curve and every pool that follows it. ata and 820 million rows of market history, and it grows by 18 to 25 million trades, up to a million wallets and more than 60,000 new launches every day.
We measured each coin minute by minute. We scored every entry by what the coin did next. We trained neural nets on the result, then went wallet by wallet looking for the people who actually win.
The question was simple: can anyone see the big move coming before it happens?
The short answer is no. The long answer is worse than no, because the data does not just fail to find an edge for you. It shows, in detail, who holds the edge, how they use it, and what they do with you.
Start with a coin that has actually caught a bid: real volume, real buyers, the kind of thing that shows up on your screener. From any given moment, about one in ten of those doubles within the next 24 hours. The rest bleed, and the bleeding is not gentle.
Now take a wallet's first buy into a live coin. Every first buy, 22.8 million of them over a two-week window. In 17% of those entries the coin doubles before it drops 40%. Trade that mechanically, double or stop, and you lose about 19% per attempt after costs.
Call that the house hold. A slot machine keeps 5 to 10%. This keeps 19%, per pull, before any skill or selection is applied.
The reason is the shape of the payoff. A 2× pays you 100%. The failures do not cost you 10%; they cost you 50%, 80%, 95%. To break even you have to be right far more often than the game allows.
The cabal is real, and we can see it
CT calls it the cabal. The data calls it a cluster: a set of wallets whose first buys land within a minute of each other, on the same brand-new coins, over and over. We do not find them by name or PFP. They fall out of the trade stream all on their own.
They are there. Swarms of 450, 1,400 and 2,000 wallets that hit hundreds of launches a week, moving in within the first minute or two of a coin's life. Smaller, tighter groups of 7 to 50 wallets that pick their spots. Across daily refreshes the count has run from 9 groups to 33, with members rotating in and out as wallets burn and fresh ones take their place.
They are not guessing. The coins the big swarms pile into double 28 to 46% of the time, three to four times the base rate. Their own entries, across every coin they touch, run 50 to 60% to a 2× before a 40% drop, against 17% for everyone else.
That is what an edge looks like in this market. It belongs to a few hundred wallets, and it is applied to tens of thousands of launches with industrial regularity.
Copying them loses too
The obvious retort: find the cabal, copy the cabal. We did exactly that. A machine watches every launch every minute and flags the moment a known group piles in. Then we traded every flag the way a fast human could: in two minutes behind the group, double or stop out at −40%, out after a day.
Following the big swarms lost 41% per coin across 93 coins. The median result was −95%. Not because they were wrong; their coins doubled 28% of the time. Two minutes behind them is simply already the top of the move. They bought at launch. You bought the candle they are selling into.
Following only the groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per coin. Following one good wallet on its own lost 20% per trade in our back-tests. The single pocket that came out ahead, a handful of small, tight groups, made about 10% per coin over 16 coins. That is a few days of trades and nothing anyone should bet a bankroll on.
The cabal's edge is not information you can borrow. It is position. By the time their trade is visible on-chain, the thing that made it profitable is gone.
The best model we could build still loses
We also tried the honest version: no cabal, just prediction. Dozens of signals per coin every minute, price, flow, liquidity, holder behaviour, bot share, fed into neural nets trained on our own history and tested on days they had never seen.
It works, in the sense a quant would recognize. The top of its ranking doubles 26% of the time against a 10% base rate. Two and a half times better than chance.
It also loses money every single day. 771 picks over eight days; every day negative; −11% per pick on the same double-or-stop rule; the median pick down 45%; 55% stopped out within 24 hours.
The ranking is real and the P&L is still red. The losers are deeper than the winners are tall, and nothing observable at the five-minute mark separates the coin that keeps going from the one that reverses. That is the part worth meditating on: a model 2.5× better than chance odds is still a losing model.
Why nobody sees it coming
The reason is simple, and it should change how you look at every chart. A meme coin moves because a few people decide to move it: the operator holding the supply, the caller with an audience, the wallet group with the bankroll. That decision is made off-chain. The chain only shows you its execution, the swaps, the volume, the new holders, and by then the first leg is done.
Everything a trader looks at, from a screener to a chart to a wallet tracker, is a photograph of a decision that has already been made. The data is enormous and almost all of it is the crowd reacting. The informative part, a few hundred wallets' intent, is visible only at the instant it executes, and the people executing it are the ones selling to you a few minutes later.
Add 60,000 launches a day, and the future 100× at minute one is indistinguishable from the 59,999 that die. The casino does not need to hide the cards because it deals them faster than anyone can read and analyze them.
Conclusion
After spending thousands of dollars in API credits, VPS costs, Claude credits, etc the goal was simple: find alpha - if it exists - in order to be able to monetize it.
Instead, all we were able to prove is what we all have suspected all along - the meme coin casino is almost entirely cabal driven.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋
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A reminder from the road: the most important business still happens in person. Online narrative matters, but sitting across from decision-makers, sharing vision face to face and making commitments eye to eye, is where things actually move.
@kbwofficial and @token2049 in Singapore delivered exactly that. It was a particular pleasure to sit down with @stelyb & I'm grateful for his continued support and guidance, and for the network around him.
This week: the UAE, and more of the same. Productive conversations with people building real-world use cases and genuinely supporting us, teams and businesses who want to use our tech & partner with us. If you're in the region and working on something real, my door is open to meet in real life.
Onwards and upwards.
@kbwofficial and @token2049 in Singapore delivered exactly that. It was a particular pleasure to sit down with @stelyb & I'm grateful for his continued support and guidance, and for the network around him.
This week: the UAE, and more of the same. Productive conversations with people building real-world use cases and genuinely supporting us, teams and businesses who want to use our tech & partner with us. If you're in the region and working on something real, my door is open to meet in real life.
Onwards and upwards.
At HyperChain we are aligned with the new vision and strategy of Sonic Labs.
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Was a pleasure to sit down with one of the original supporters and felt almost surreal. The complete full circle moment is still coming, but I believe the road ahead is becoming clear, even for outsiders and naysayers.
I'm also always very critical of my own public responses after the fact, thinking I could have done better or explained something more succinctly, but I try to just clear my head and focus on telling the truth.
We could all see the slow motion car accident that was unfolding in front of our eyes and again, I'm grateful for the opportunity to pull it back on track and get Sonic back to where we are supposed to be.
The technology and the community deserve it. I hope more people start focusing on our future like I do.
I'm also always very critical of my own public responses after the fact, thinking I could have done better or explained something more succinctly, but I try to just clear my head and focus on telling the truth.
We could all see the slow motion car accident that was unfolding in front of our eyes and again, I'm grateful for the opportunity to pull it back on track and get Sonic back to where we are supposed to be.
The technology and the community deserve it. I hope more people start focusing on our future like I do.
Sonic CEO Reveals Why It's Crypto's Next BIG Opportunity! | Matthew Visser Full Interview
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I'm very appreciative of the opportunity to revive and strengthen @SonicLabs We know that there are equal amounts of challenges and opportunities ahead, but every time we overcome another challenge, the future seems a little brighter. 1% every day.
"It always seems impossible, until it's done."
"It always seems impossible, until it's done."
What matters most for Sonic right now?
Building durable revenue.
Consistent, sustainable business that compounds over time.
That’s the focus.
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GM All,
I said it at the start, about 126 days or 3047 hours ago; and its been being proven more and more each & every day as we've progressed.
From Korea to Singapore and around the world, we have a lot more people cheering for us than against us.
Join us.
I said it at the start, about 126 days or 3047 hours ago; and its been being proven more and more each & every day as we've progressed.
From Korea to Singapore and around the world, we have a lot more people cheering for us than against us.
Join us.
gm Singapore! 🇸🇬
The Sonic team will be around TOKEN2049 and joining two events this week:
→ Today, 10/6: Open Board
→ Thursday, 10/8: HSC Singapore
Come say hi while we’re in town.
RSVP links below.
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Tomorrow afternoon and I'm looking forward to it. Should be a challenging and refreshing discussion.
Seoul, see you October 1. 🇰🇷
Sonic CEO @MattVisser joins HSC’26 to share where Sonic goes next, from the work underway today to the next phase of growth for the network.
See you there.
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I don't think I'll ever stop wearing my heart on my sleeve, or staying up late to talk to people on the internet when it matters.
It matters now. I'm grateful for every opportunity, every comment, every follow.
The future is brighter and more promising than it's ever been. The right people stayed, and we're going to do more than just make it.
Sonic is so full of potential that I still get angry daily at the state we find ourselves in, but that energy goes toward making it better.
Packing for Korea & Singapore, watching the clip below.
I'll never get used to hearing my own voice, but I'll never forget that the best revenge is success.
It matters now. I'm grateful for every opportunity, every comment, every follow.
The future is brighter and more promising than it's ever been. The right people stayed, and we're going to do more than just make it.
Sonic is so full of potential that I still get angry daily at the state we find ourselves in, but that energy goes toward making it better.
Packing for Korea & Singapore, watching the clip below.
I'll never get used to hearing my own voice, but I'll never forget that the best revenge is success.
What does the next chapter of Sonic look like?
CEO Matt Visser discusses the first 100 days, the changes made across the business, and greater transparency around the token and treasury.
He also breaks down why the focus now is on execution, revenue, and long-term growth.
Full AMA below.
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A lot of accounts who must have benefited from how things were, are popping up to larp as fair critics and predict our total failure. They use a familiar insider arrogant tone, all knowing, which is ironic, given how they are so clearly on the outside looking in. Onwards & upwards.
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@kbwofficial first and then Singapore for @token2049 - if you're attending and want to discuss anything about @SonicLabs let us know.
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We still have a long way to go.
We've had some long-overdue good days recently, and there will be more good and bad days ahead.
We take both in stride, staying disciplined, focusing on the fundamentals that matter and trusting that the rest will follow.
I'm proud and grateful to be here.
I believe in @SonicLabs
We've had some long-overdue good days recently, and there will be more good and bad days ahead.
We take both in stride, staying disciplined, focusing on the fundamentals that matter and trusting that the rest will follow.
I'm proud and grateful to be here.
I believe in @SonicLabs
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With or without clarity, the rest of the world will continue to innovate and @SonicLabs is going to be a big part of it. We're not going anywhere.
V2.2 on 9.22
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GM Marines, friends & strangers!
The 1% isn't always visible, but the commitment will be.
The rest of our business needs to catch up to our technology and we're busy doing exactly that.
"The evolution of Sonic has just begun."
The 1% isn't always visible, but the commitment will be.
The rest of our business needs to catch up to our technology and we're busy doing exactly that.
"The evolution of Sonic has just begun."
There's more than to what we're doing than meets the eye, and we want to make sure developers, users, and community members all understand that we're improving the technical and business aspects of Sonic hand-in-hand.
The evolution of Sonic is just getting started.
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Congratulations, it was a very competitive, high quality group and coming out on top already says a lot. We're all looking forward to seeing you grow from strength to strength.
Onwards and upwards!
Onwards and upwards!
What an honour to be chosen as the winner out of 300+ applicants at 10X Founders Demo Day v2.0.
Huge thanks to @InspiraLabsHQ and every partner who hosted. Great to share the stage with such a strong group of founders.
Onwards 👀
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100%
We can't hope that X algos protect us, we need to help protect each other. I find myself doing this every time I see a blatant one in the replies.
Takes less than a minute and even just a handful of accounts being vigilant can dramatically reduce the risk for other new or less experienced community.
We can't hope that X algos protect us, we need to help protect each other. I find myself doing this every time I see a blatant one in the replies.
Takes less than a minute and even just a handful of accounts being vigilant can dramatically reduce the risk for other new or less experienced community.
Please report scam accounts if you see them people. Look after each other ❤️
Love yas
Big Kev
@SonicLabs
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Long form conversations like this are great to get into the details of things. We covered less than half of what we were supposed to, so definitely a round 2 coming up soon as well.
Handy reminder that following @SonicLabs is the quickest way to catch all of the upcoming AMAs and updates.
Handy reminder that following @SonicLabs is the quickest way to catch all of the upcoming AMAs and updates.
Sonic’s CEO dives deeper into the vision behind RWAs, AI, and community.
Listen to the full interview with @FraxForce below.
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Feedback like this matters. Thank you for the continued support @minhokim & team. Making it reciprocal is something which makes sense for us, our B2B business cases and our users.
The @gosodax team have been incredibly positive about what the future could look like. They're building and scaling, together and independently; and I'm looking forward to replicating the same goodwill & professional formula with other protocols and Dapps on @SonicLabs
Onwards and Upwards!
The rising tide lifts all boats.
The @gosodax team have been incredibly positive about what the future could look like. They're building and scaling, together and independently; and I'm looking forward to replicating the same goodwill & professional formula with other protocols and Dapps on @SonicLabs
Onwards and Upwards!
The rising tide lifts all boats.
On June 19, @SonicLabs announced a surprising leadership change. Like many $S community members, we were initially skeptical and concerned about this shift. Now, 50 days in, I feel confident that the Sonic ecosystem is headed in the right direction.
I can confidently say that the new Sonic leadership team is among the most professional executives I have worked with across my 20 year career alongside other C-suites. On our first meeting, they came with a viable plan and got right to work. Our teams continue to hold weekly, action oriented meetings. I have personally had two direct calls with the new CEO @MattVisser, with another scheduled for next week. We speak the same language, demanding real results week in and week out from each other.
I was very direct with Matt when we first spoke. I told him that we migrated to Sonic from our own L1 (ICON) because our engineers genuinely preferred building here. We did not stop at building either. We invested a 7-figure sum to acquire $S, we run a validator to help secure the network, and we sponsored and attended the Sonic Summit in Vienna, Singapore, and New York. We made a substantial effort to align ourselves with Sonic and become a core, contributing part of this community. However, that alignment had not been reciprocal, which was tough to square with our level of commitment. Matt understood that immediately and went to work to restore true alignment.
To me, real alignment means that at this stage of the ecosystem and the broader crypto market, we need to work together to grow the pie rather than waste time debating what is in it for one party versus another. For example, as a recent post highlighted, scaling the $USSD stablecoin is a major focus for Sonic. On July 29, we integrated $USSD as money market collateral within the SODAX SDK, allowing users to supply $USSD and borrow against native assets against it. When an initiative like $USSD is a priority for Sonic, we make it a priority for SODAX, building key infrastructure around it to drive growth. This is just one of many examples where we are taking action. With stronger alignment, we can accelerate ecosystem growth much faster, and I am genuinely excited about what we are executing right now.
I am looking forward to the next 50 days. Sustainable success takes time and ultimately depends on generating real, tangible revenue for both Sonic and its partners. As Matt wrote: “As the business units described above start producing revenue we can point to, the mechanism for how that reaches S holders gets designed and published.” We could not agree more.
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Matt Visser retweeted
We're pleased to announce our media partners supporting 10X Founders Demo Day v2.0 🚀
Each one already has a real relationship with the people who matter most in this space, investors deciding where to put capital, builders deciding who to collaborate with and traders deciding o
Having them involved means the story of this event doesn't stop at the stage, it reaches the exact audience finalists are trying to get in front of, through outlets that already have their trust
@BitcoinNews - one of crypto's longest-running news publications, daily coverage of Bitcoin, digital assets, regulation and markets. Covers events like Demo Day because their readers are already following where the next project comes from
@Cointelegraph - publishing since 2013, read by millions of investors and builders worldwide. An accelerator demo day with named backers is standard beat coverage for them
@CoinMarketCap - the platform hundreds of millions of people open first to check what's worth watching. They cover launches and pitch events because that's literally what their audience is there to find
@CryptoRank_io - the analytics platform 600K+ investors and analysts use to track raises and fund activity. A live pitch event with a real prize pool is exactly the kind of raise their audience watches
@incrypted - the top crypto media brand in Ukraine and one of the largest crypto communities in Eastern Europe. They cover it because it's relevant news for a CIS audience most English-language outlets don't reach
@Assemble_io - an AI news layer (NS3) wired into Binance's and CoinGecko's own news feeds, distributing coverage across 16 languages automatically. They pick up stories like this because it's newsworthy at the protocol level
A pitch event is judged by who's in the room on August 25
It gets remembered by who wrote about it after
10X Founders Demo Day v2.0 · August 25
🔗 Apply now: luma.com/mie9hpvt
Each one already has a real relationship with the people who matter most in this space, investors deciding where to put capital, builders deciding who to collaborate with and traders deciding o
Having them involved means the story of this event doesn't stop at the stage, it reaches the exact audience finalists are trying to get in front of, through outlets that already have their trust
@BitcoinNews - one of crypto's longest-running news publications, daily coverage of Bitcoin, digital assets, regulation and markets. Covers events like Demo Day because their readers are already following where the next project comes from
@Cointelegraph - publishing since 2013, read by millions of investors and builders worldwide. An accelerator demo day with named backers is standard beat coverage for them
@CoinMarketCap - the platform hundreds of millions of people open first to check what's worth watching. They cover launches and pitch events because that's literally what their audience is there to find
@CryptoRank_io - the analytics platform 600K+ investors and analysts use to track raises and fund activity. A live pitch event with a real prize pool is exactly the kind of raise their audience watches
@incrypted - the top crypto media brand in Ukraine and one of the largest crypto communities in Eastern Europe. They cover it because it's relevant news for a CIS audience most English-language outlets don't reach
@Assemble_io - an AI news layer (NS3) wired into Binance's and CoinGecko's own news feeds, distributing coverage across 16 languages automatically. They pick up stories like this because it's newsworthy at the protocol level
A pitch event is judged by who's in the room on August 25
It gets remembered by who wrote about it after
10X Founders Demo Day v2.0 · August 25
🔗 Apply now: luma.com/mie9hpvt
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There are so many people looking for support and trying to start or build something great.
This could be the X post you talk about one day in the future, when you're explaining to somebody how you got your start.
@InspiraLabsHQ @Yellow @cicada_mm
This could be the X post you talk about one day in the future, when you're explaining to somebody how you got your start.
@InspiraLabsHQ @Yellow @cicada_mm
Hey builders. Got something cool you are building?
Join the 10X Founders Demo Day v2.0 for a chance at $150,000!
As the Anchor Partner, we are ready to provide resources to further your success and growth.
See you on August 25th!
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