@sundarpichai & @Google the piece from the earnings call everyone is missing is when the CFO mentioned the backlog and the expected realized meet of that backlog in the next 24 months.
Could this mean cloud is expected to run at $30 billion + per quarter over the next 24 months?
Could this mean cloud is expected to run at $30 billion + per quarter over the next 24 months?
关于 $GOOGL ，我怀疑很多人没看财报没听电话会，跟着k线随波逐流。
谷歌已经需要从外面买算力来满足客户，四季度还要买更多。这时候只盯着资本开支涨得快不快，容易把问题看反。
这次电话会最值得认真听的，就是这段。
（1）谷歌眼下缺的，是能交到客户手里的产能。
对本季云利润率的拖累有限。四季度会扩大使用，短期利润率将承压。
这句话解释了谷歌正在做的取舍。自己的产能暂时接不住需求，就先用外部资源把生意做起来，代价是少赚一点。
如果客户确实愿意付钱，谷歌的选择就不能只按“怎样让下季度利润率最好看”来算。少租一点，利润率可能漂亮，但一部分客户需求也可能接不下来。
所以，四季度云利润率如果下降，要先看外购算力带来了多少新增业务，不能看到利润率回落，就直接推成需求转弱。
（2）在这个前提下，资本开支增加有它的必要性。
谷歌云本季收入增长103%，经营利润约111亿美元。客户需求已经在变成收入和利润，讨论扩产有现实基础。
现在一边需要外购算力，一边又要求公司控制自有产能建设，总得回答一个问题——后面增长的客户需求准备交给谁？
自建需要时间，也会带来折旧、电力和运营成本。但如果新增产能能够被持续使用，就有机会减少对外部供应商的依赖，把更多经营收益留在自己手里。
租算力解决眼前交付，自建解决后续供给，两者可能在一段时间里同时增加。这会让当期报表难看，却不天然意味着投资方向错了。
而且谷歌这次没有上调2026年资本开支指引，仍是1950亿至2050亿美元。管理层说2027年会显著增加，具体安排留到下次财报解释。把这次结果描述成“又突然加码”，也不准确。
（3）负自由现金流需要进一步分析。
本季自由现金流负91亿美元，其中还有52亿美元的欧盟罚款付款，以及为TPU系统销售准备库存带来的占款。
罚款是实际付出去的钱，不能装作没发生；但它不能代表每个季度都要重复承担的经营成本。备货则要继续追到后面的交付和回款。
电话会上，云业务负责人Kurian还明确说，TPU系统库存对应的是已经签下的合同。这个信息比单独看到库存上升有价值，至少说明公司是在为承诺的交付准备货物。
合同当然还要执行，但备货占用现金，与产品卖不出去积压在那里，是两种不同处境。
因此，这份现金流没有表面数字看起来那么简单。它同时包含扩产、交付准备和一次罚款付款，不能全部解释成AI生意赚钱能力变差。
（4）谷歌仍有需要面对的问题，搜索变现就是其中一个。
管理层解释，搜索增速放缓受汇率、广告行业变化等因素影响，也承认AI Mode目前变现较低。更多使用量怎样转成广告收入，这一段还需要做出来。
同样，三季度36.2%的云利润率，也不能直接当成四季度的基准。第三方算力的成本影响才刚开始，公司已经提前说了后面会承压。
但这些问题，没有推翻扩产的经营理由。
这份财报之后，对谷歌云的判断应该更积极。收入和利润在增长，供给却仍然紧，甚至需要外购来补。此时资本开支的价值，要看它能否补上交付缺口、改善后续供给成本。
如果以后产能上线了，客户用量接不上，或者新增收入覆盖不了长期成本，那才有充分理由质疑扩产。
眼下已经要靠外面的算力接客户，还只拿“资本开支太高”当结论，等于跳过了谷歌为什么必须花这笔钱。
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THE BIGGEST JOKE OF ALL IS THINKING I AM ACTUALLY BEARISH @sundarpichai or @Google at all!!!
I have been using my platform all day to draw attention to them, by any means, and I have full faith @Google will actually be the BEST AI play the world has ever seen. @sundarpichai
I have been using my platform all day to draw attention to them, by any means, and I have full faith @Google will actually be the BEST AI play the world has ever seen. @sundarpichai
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This shit needs to be investigated immediately and this Gemelo person and the Store need to be help legally accountable for what occurred.
A massive FIGHT broke out at the grocery store after Gemelo got PRESSED by a Racist who told him to stop recording while he was paying for everyone’s food
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@hievan9 @chrollosoll Do you know them?
I am willing to fund the entire lawsuit and connect him with an attorney.
This creator needs an awakening to what the U.S. actually is.
I am willing to fund the entire lawsuit and connect him with an attorney.
This creator needs an awakening to what the U.S. actually is.
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@chrollosoll If this man wants to sue both the content creator and the grocery store that allowed this to occur. I am ready to fund it all, and am happy to connect him with a wonderful lawyer.
This is the most disgustingly want to be vigilantly shit ever. There’s no place for this in the USA
This is the most disgustingly want to be vigilantly shit ever. There’s no place for this in the USA
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Datini 🖼 retweeted
刚看完 Google 财报和盘后大阴线，几分钟内就亏掉大几个月的的薪水，瞬间就没心情写代码了😭
复盘一下这次砸盘的核心逻辑：
1. CapEx 焦虑：内部这大半年把日常 budget 抠到极致，省下的钱全砸进了算力和 AI 基建。但华尔街逻辑变了：光砸钱不够，拿不出立竿见影的 ROI 指引就是挤压利润率。
2. ，但推理成本实打实在烧钱。市场更担心 AI 是在创造广告增量，还是在稀释传统搜索的高利润。
3. 预期差：财报前预期拉得太满，没有炸裂的 beat & raise，资金就会直接借机获利了结。
白天在工位死磕分布式系统省那几毫秒延迟和机器成本，晚上看机构以毫秒级的速度把自己的 RSU 砸出个大坑。血泪教训：永远别把人力资本和财务资本绑在一条船上。等这波过去，老老实实做分散了。今晚湾区和西雅图估计不少人睡不着。
复盘一下这次砸盘的核心逻辑：
1. CapEx 焦虑：内部这大半年把日常 budget 抠到极致，省下的钱全砸进了算力和 AI 基建。但华尔街逻辑变了：光砸钱不够，拿不出立竿见影的 ROI 指引就是挤压利润率。
2. ，但推理成本实打实在烧钱。市场更担心 AI 是在创造广告增量，还是在稀释传统搜索的高利润。
3. 预期差：财报前预期拉得太满，没有炸裂的 beat & raise，资金就会直接借机获利了结。
白天在工位死磕分布式系统省那几毫秒延迟和机器成本，晚上看机构以毫秒级的速度把自己的 RSU 砸出个大坑。血泪教训：永远别把人力资本和财务资本绑在一条船上。等这波过去，老老实实做分散了。今晚湾区和西雅图估计不少人睡不着。
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@rchen1386 Look at what you’ve done @sundarpichai
You motherfucker you. You goat looking motherfucker.
We will swing your own people against you, and it won’t be hard either. Look!
They are doing it for us!
@Google we want a no confidence vote in @sundarpichai IMMEDIATELY.
You motherfucker you. You goat looking motherfucker.
We will swing your own people against you, and it won’t be hard either. Look!
They are doing it for us!
@Google we want a no confidence vote in @sundarpichai IMMEDIATELY.
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@sundarpichai you’re such a worthless fucking coward.
FUCKING ANSWER US. TELL US THE TRUTH. YOU SHIT THE BED AND KNEW SINCE 2025 AI WAS EATING AWAY AT SEARCH.
Did you hide it? @Google we want a no confidence vote in this CEO called immediately.
FUCKING ANSWER US. TELL US THE TRUTH. YOU SHIT THE BED AND KNEW SINCE 2025 AI WAS EATING AWAY AT SEARCH.
Did you hide it? @Google we want a no confidence vote in this CEO called immediately.
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@KevInvestingYT Delta on these, like mine, are going to be below .1 tomorrow all thanks to Likes to and Looks like a Goat Fuck @sundarpichai
Which is why we are making it our only mission in life to ax him from the U.S. and @Google with a no confidence vote and a deportation from @POTUS
Which is why we are making it our only mission in life to ax him from the U.S. and @Google with a no confidence vote and a deportation from @POTUS
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@sundarpichai FUCK YOU GOAT LOOKING SHIT HOLE!
We hate you @sundarpichai
We will get rid of you in a no confidence vote.
You’re a fucking failure even ford can hit their numbers.
We hate you @sundarpichai
We will get rid of you in a no confidence vote.
You’re a fucking failure even ford can hit their numbers.
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@jzrdan You’re wrong @sundarpichai shit his pants Pichai is an AI failure.
I’m getting all the holders I know to sign onto a letter demanding a vote on no confidence in him.
I’m getting all the holders I know to sign onto a letter demanding a vote on no confidence in him.
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What’s another name for Goat Fuck Shit Hole Idiot?
If you guessed @sundarpichai you guessed correctly.
This motherfucker needs to go. Get out the U.S. and get the fuck out of @Google
I WANT A VOTE ON NO CONFIDENCE AGAINST HIM TOMORROW.
If you guessed @sundarpichai you guessed correctly.
This motherfucker needs to go. Get out the U.S. and get the fuck out of @Google
I WANT A VOTE ON NO CONFIDENCE AGAINST HIM TOMORROW.
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@legen_eth No it’s heading to 265 a share trust me I lost 7k on Google options today.
@sundarpichai should be jailed for lying and hiding the fact search was under threat from AI.
@sundarpichai should be jailed for lying and hiding the fact search was under threat from AI.
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@sundarpichai because of you you sick demented wheezily fuck. I will never trust an Indian person in my life.
In fact @POTUS DEPORT THEM ALL.
This motherfucker is destructive, he’s an idiot, and he’s a fucking failure. Let’s put an actual American in as CEO of @Google
In fact @POTUS DEPORT THEM ALL.
This motherfucker is destructive, he’s an idiot, and he’s a fucking failure. Let’s put an actual American in as CEO of @Google
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@sundarpichai YOU BETTER SAY SOMETHING ON THIS EARNINGS CALL YOU, you fuck.
YOU GOAT FUCK LOOKING IDIOT.
I PROMISE THIS WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.
@sundarpichai looks like a goat fuck idiot and @Google put this demented fucker in only to lose us all money.
WE WANT A VOTE NO CONFIDENCE.
YOU GOAT FUCK LOOKING IDIOT.
I PROMISE THIS WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.
@sundarpichai looks like a goat fuck idiot and @Google put this demented fucker in only to lose us all money.
WE WANT A VOTE NO CONFIDENCE.
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@sundarpichai @sundarpichai THE FUCKING STOCK IS DOWN OVER 6%.
You motherfucking pig fuck you.
@Google this fucker has to go. GET RID OF HIM TODAY.
WE WILL NEVER FORGET, WE ARE EVERYWHERE, AND WE WILL MAKE IT OUR GOAL TO RUIN YOU @sundarpichai
You motherfucking pig fuck you.
@Google this fucker has to go. GET RID OF HIM TODAY.
WE WILL NEVER FORGET, WE ARE EVERYWHERE, AND WE WILL MAKE IT OUR GOAL TO RUIN YOU @sundarpichai
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@sundarpichai you sick demented twisted fuck.
You good for nothing fucking troll.
EVEN FUCKING FORD BEAT. You demented sick fuck. @Google you are evil.
You good for nothing fucking troll.
EVEN FUCKING FORD BEAT. You demented sick fuck. @Google you are evil.
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WHAT THE FUCK @sundarpichai
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK.
@Google down over 6% you missed fucking earnings?
Are you stupid? Are you dumb? You sick twisted fuck. I won’t forget this. YOU FUCKING IDIOT.
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK.
@Google down over 6% you missed fucking earnings?
Are you stupid? Are you dumb? You sick twisted fuck. I won’t forget this. YOU FUCKING IDIOT.
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@hxxntrr is a complete fraud and idiot hahaha!
These “gurus” have NO REAL IDEA, how this process actually works.
I fear they are just stupid people.
These “gurus” have NO REAL IDEA, how this process actually works.
I fear they are just stupid people.
You can legally wire $70,000 from Chase and American Express straight into your personal checking account at 0% interest by renting your own living room to yourself
not joking btw
And the IRS makes the entire $70,000 tax-free on both ends
Almost every business owner has heard of Section 280A(g), the Augusta Rule that lets you rent your house to your own LLC for up to 14 days a year without reporting a dime of that rent as personal income
But 99% of people never touch it because they think "I need $70,000 of cash sitting in my business account first just to move my own money from my right pocket to my left pocket"
No mf. You don't use your own cash. You use the bank's 0% money
Step 1: Take your 720+ credit score and open $200,000 in 0% APR business credit cards under your LLC across Chase Ink, Amex Blue Business Plus, and US Bank Triple Cash
Step 2: Your LLC signs a 14-day corporate rental agreement with you personally at 3,500aday(49,000 total, backed by local hotel conference room quotes), plus sets up an Accountable Plan under IRC Section 62 to reimburse you another $21,000 for your home office, cell phone, internet, and mileage
Step 3: Never swipe your own Square reader (that gets you shut down for self-merchanting). Pay that $70,000 invoice to yourself through a B2B payment rail like Melio or Plastiq using the 0% business cards. They charge 2.85% and wire $70,000 straight into your personal checking account
Step 4: Put the other $130,000 on your 0% cards into cash-flowing inventory, equipment, or T-bills that pay the cards back before the 15-month 0% clock runs out
Do you realize what just happened??
Your LLC gets a $70,000 tax deduction right now that cuts roughly $25,000 off your April tax bill. You personally get $70,000 of tax-free cash sitting in your personal checking account for 15 months at 0% interest. And your personal Experian report shows $0 in new debt
If you have a 700+ credit score and want my team to build your 150k-250k 0% funding stack so you don't get auto-declined applying in the wrong order, book a call using the link in my bio
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