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Legendary investor Howard Marks just released a new memo.
“In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen economic cycles, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.”
My Notes…
“In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen economic cycles, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.”
My Notes…
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Market is going to absolutely rip next week.
Problem when everything goes higher is staying disciplined and not chasing bad companies.
Still focus on owning only the highest quality companies with competitive advantages even if they’re not going up as much as some other momentum-based companies
Problem when everything goes higher is staying disciplined and not chasing bad companies.
Still focus on owning only the highest quality companies with competitive advantages even if they’re not going up as much as some other momentum-based companies
Baring some external event, market feels like it’s ready to go higher next week.
Today and yesterday felt like some forced selling.
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Baring some external event, market feels like it’s ready to go higher next week.
Today and yesterday felt like some forced selling.
Today and yesterday felt like some forced selling.
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BREAKING: Polymarket has launched 15-minute gold and silver up/down markets.
Users can now trade whether gold and silver will move higher or lower over each 15-minute window.
Users can now trade whether gold and silver will move higher or lower over each 15-minute window.
Gold & silver, up or down?
15 minute up/down gold & silver polymarkets are now live.
@chainlink is our official oracle partner for high-speed up/down markets, and we’re just getting started 🤝
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I'm a sucker for fundamental analysis and @FASTGraphs absolutely nailed it with $INTC.
I STRONGLY RECOMMEND that you give @FASTGraphs a follow if you want to learn about fundamental analysis.
I STRONGLY RECOMMEND that you give @FASTGraphs a follow if you want to learn about fundamental analysis.
Is it too late to buy $INTC?
Shares are trading at a blended P/S of 10, higher than anytime in the last 20 years.
If it trades down to its historic P/S ratio of around 3, the stock price would be $36, down from over $117 currently.
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What a recovery for $AMZN
In all seriousness, I think the knee-jerk 10% drop won’t hold and I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock positive tomorrow.
Quarter was pretty good in the areas that matter.
More to come in my earnings review newsletter tomorrow.
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I still believe $AMZN will close in the green or just slightly down today but not close to down 8% like it was last night.
AWS is a beast
AWS is a beast
RECKLESS PREDICTION
I think this is the perfect setup to be long $AMZN into earnings.
Here’s a preview of what I sent out to paid subs. DM me if you want full access.
The setup comes straight from the two cloud reports we just got. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% to $33.2 billion apex came in below what the market feared.
Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, accelerating from 63% in Q1 and 82% in Q2. Demand for cloud and AI compute is not the question anymore. But Alphabet still fell 9% after hours, because the growth is coming with a bill attached: free cash flow negative for a second straight quarter, $28.7 billion of debt sold during the quarter, capex guided to increase significantly again in 2027, and search growth slowing to 12% from 19% at the start of the year. The market paid for the cloud and then charged Google for everything around it.
Amazon goes into tonight’s report with the read-through and without the baggage Alphabet has. AWS is the largest cloud business in the world and just watched its two rivals confirm the demand.
Amazon isn’t carrying frontier-model spending commitments the way Google funds Gemini, it funds its buildout from operating cash flow, and nobody is asking whether AI breaks Amazon’s core business the way they’re asking about search for Alphabet.
If AWS shows the same acceleration Azure and Google Cloud just showed, I think shareholders will be rewarded.
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I think there’s a real argument that AI is an existential threat to crypto.
Why would anyone risk holding any meaningful money on any non-insured exchanges?
Why would anyone risk holding any meaningful money on any non-insured exchanges?
Our team is doing everything we can to support in the current situation, including blocking sends to compromised wallets. We've also reached out to Binance to offer our help.
Moments like this call for the industry to work together. Openly sharing any useful information and helping to protect customers should come first, regardless of which platform they use. If you can do anything to help, please do!
Crypto has been through many tough times, and has always come out stronger on the other side. This won’t be any different.
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Is crypto going to be the first thing that is entirely wiped out by AI?
BREAKING: World's largest crypto exchange Binance hacked with over $5.6 billion stolen:
• $1.45 billion $BTC
• $875 million $ETH
• $234 million $TRX
• $50 million $XAUT
• $1.57 billion $USDT
• $823 million $USDC
• $75 million $WBETH
• $88.5 million $RLUSD
+ $447.5 tocurrencies
This is the largest hack in crypto history.
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Amazon down 9% after earnings. Deleting this post immediately.
Kidding. Too many people act like they’re perfect.
We all make mistakes. This was one of them.
Kidding. Too many people act like they’re perfect.
We all make mistakes. This was one of them.
RECKLESS PREDICTION
I think this is the perfect setup to be long $AMZN into earnings.
Here’s a preview of what I sent out to paid subs. DM me if you want full access.
The setup comes straight from the two cloud reports we just got. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% to $33.2 billion apex came in below what the market feared.
Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, accelerating from 63% in Q1 and 82% in Q2. Demand for cloud and AI compute is not the question anymore. But Alphabet still fell 9% after hours, because the growth is coming with a bill attached: free cash flow negative for a second straight quarter, $28.7 billion of debt sold during the quarter, capex guided to increase significantly again in 2027, and search growth slowing to 12% from 19% at the start of the year. The market paid for the cloud and then charged Google for everything around it.
Amazon goes into tonight’s report with the read-through and without the baggage Alphabet has. AWS is the largest cloud business in the world and just watched its two rivals confirm the demand.
Amazon isn’t carrying frontier-model spending commitments the way Google funds Gemini, it funds its buildout from operating cash flow, and nobody is asking whether AI breaks Amazon’s core business the way they’re asking about search for Alphabet.
If AWS shows the same acceleration Azure and Google Cloud just showed, I think shareholders will be rewarded.
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In all seriousness, I think the knee-jerk 10% drop won’t hold and I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock positive tomorrow.
Quarter was pretty good in the areas that matter.
More to come in my earnings review newsletter tomorrow.
Quarter was pretty good in the areas that matter.
More to come in my earnings review newsletter tomorrow.
RECKLESS PREDICTION
I think this is the perfect setup to be long $AMZN into earnings.
Here’s a preview of what I sent out to paid subs. DM me if you want full access.
The setup comes straight from the two cloud reports we just got. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% to $33.2 billion apex came in below what the market feared.
Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, accelerating from 63% in Q1 and 82% in Q2. Demand for cloud and AI compute is not the question anymore. But Alphabet still fell 9% after hours, because the growth is coming with a bill attached: free cash flow negative for a second straight quarter, $28.7 billion of debt sold during the quarter, capex guided to increase significantly again in 2027, and search growth slowing to 12% from 19% at the start of the year. The market paid for the cloud and then charged Google for everything around it.
Amazon goes into tonight’s report with the read-through and without the baggage Alphabet has. AWS is the largest cloud business in the world and just watched its two rivals confirm the demand.
Amazon isn’t carrying frontier-model spending commitments the way Google funds Gemini, it funds its buildout from operating cash flow, and nobody is asking whether AI breaks Amazon’s core business the way they’re asking about search for Alphabet.
If AWS shows the same acceleration Azure and Google Cloud just showed, I think shareholders will be rewarded.
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$AMZN down 9% after earnings.
Deleting this immediately. Just kidding, I don’t do that.
Reminder that it’s impossible to predict earnings/earnings reactions and investing with a much longer time horizon is better.
Deleting this immediately. Just kidding, I don’t do that.
Reminder that it’s impossible to predict earnings/earnings reactions and investing with a much longer time horizon is better.
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RECKLESS PREDICTION
I think this is the perfect setup to be long $AMZN into earnings.
Here’s a preview of what I sent out to paid subs. DM me if you want full access.
The setup comes straight from the two cloud reports we just got. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% to $33.2 billion apex came in below what the market feared.
Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, accelerating from 63% in Q1 and 82% in Q2. Demand for cloud and AI compute is not the question anymore. But Alphabet still fell 9% after hours, because the growth is coming with a bill attached: free cash flow negative for a second straight quarter, $28.7 billion of debt sold during the quarter, capex guided to increase significantly again in 2027, and search growth slowing to 12% from 19% at the start of the year. The market paid for the cloud and then charged Google for everything around it.
Amazon goes into tonight’s report with the read-through and without the baggage Alphabet has. AWS is the largest cloud business in the world and just watched its two rivals confirm the demand.
Amazon isn’t carrying frontier-model spending commitments the way Google funds Gemini, it funds its buildout from operating cash flow, and nobody is asking whether AI breaks Amazon’s core business the way they’re asking about search for Alphabet.
If AWS shows the same acceleration Azure and Google Cloud just showed, I think shareholders will be rewarded.
I think this is the perfect setup to be long $AMZN into earnings.
Here’s a preview of what I sent out to paid subs. DM me if you want full access.
The setup comes straight from the two cloud reports we just got. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% to $33.2 billion apex came in below what the market feared.
Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion, accelerating from 63% in Q1 and 82% in Q2. Demand for cloud and AI compute is not the question anymore. But Alphabet still fell 9% after hours, because the growth is coming with a bill attached: free cash flow negative for a second straight quarter, $28.7 billion of debt sold during the quarter, capex guided to increase significantly again in 2027, and search growth slowing to 12% from 19% at the start of the year. The market paid for the cloud and then charged Google for everything around it.
Amazon goes into tonight’s report with the read-through and without the baggage Alphabet has. AWS is the largest cloud business in the world and just watched its two rivals confirm the demand.
Amazon isn’t carrying frontier-model spending commitments the way Google funds Gemini, it funds its buildout from operating cash flow, and nobody is asking whether AI breaks Amazon’s core business the way they’re asking about search for Alphabet.
If AWS shows the same acceleration Azure and Google Cloud just showed, I think shareholders will be rewarded.
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What a joke.
Now $OPEN has a CEO who had 0 experience in the housing industry and now they’re bringing on a Board member with 0 experience.
Clearly trying to leverage X and become a meme stock.
Now $OPEN has a CEO who had 0 experience in the housing industry and now they’re bringing on a Board member with 0 experience.
Clearly trying to leverage X and become a meme stock.
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Wow. One of the best $GOOGL bear cases I’ve seen.
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:
This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term
Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries
Google’s response?
Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for
A few examples to illustrate:
For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model
I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid
This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much
However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding
It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem
Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision
Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting
This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed
But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”
The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off
So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam
This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)
This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes
Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day
And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off
Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target
These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow
Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs
Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future
This is now no longer the case
At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
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