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20 Conversations on the behavioural traits & mindset of investors with @safalniveshak @NileshShah68 @iancassel @Sanjay__Bakshi @Anand_1969 @Iamsamirarora @RajeevThakkar @oraunak @VetriSmv @AswathDamodaran @MohnishPabrai @christine_benz @devinamehra @awealthofcs
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Position Sizing
“Your position size is more a function of not how much you CAN MAKE, but how much you CAN LOSE.
Manage your position based on your downward loss perspective, not your upward potential."
“Your position size is more a function of not how much you CAN MAKE, but how much you CAN LOSE.
Manage your position based on your downward loss perspective, not your upward potential."
Picking the stock is the easy part.
Buying it at the right price is the next step.
Sizing it right. That’s tough.
The hardest part is not the analysis, but temperament.
Not selling in a panic when it drops 30%.
Most wealth isn’t lost to bad picks. It’s lost to bad reactions.
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Picking the stock is the easy part.
Buying it at the right price is the next step.
Sizing it right. That’s tough.
The hardest part is not the analysis, but temperament.
Not selling in a panic when it drops 30%.
Most wealth isn’t lost to bad picks. It’s lost to bad reactions.
Buying it at the right price is the next step.
Sizing it right. That’s tough.
The hardest part is not the analysis, but temperament.
Not selling in a panic when it drops 30%.
Most wealth isn’t lost to bad picks. It’s lost to bad reactions.
Valuation, in many ways, is an Act of Faith.
This is why an investor must have a Margin of Safety in the price before committing capital.
#stocks #Investing
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If the “source”on RBI proposal last month is to be believed, it is getting more difficult for Indian investors to invest abroad.
So we are forced to invest only in India but don’t get the tax benefit. That’s only for the foreigners.
Why are we being screwed on all fronts?
So we are forced to invest only in India but don’t get the tax benefit. That’s only for the foreigners.
Why are we being screwed on all fronts?
FROM REUTERS
SEBI PROPOSES GOVERNMENT REMOVE LONG-TERM CAPITAL GAINS TAX FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS
#BIGBREAKING
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What's not in your control:
Sensex: 86,000 (Dec) to 71,000 (Oct) to 75,000 (Nov)
What's in your control:
• Focus on fundamentals when buying stocks
• Not letting market noise dictate your decisions
• Not letting emotions drive your investments
What did I miss?
Sensex: 86,000 (Dec) to 71,000 (Oct) to 75,000 (Nov)
What's in your control:
• Focus on fundamentals when buying stocks
• Not letting market noise dictate your decisions
• Not letting emotions drive your investments
What did I miss?
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Valuation, in many ways, is an Act of Faith.
This is why an investor must have a Margin of Safety in the price before committing capital.
#stocks #Investing
This is why an investor must have a Margin of Safety in the price before committing capital.
#stocks #Investing
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We consider risk when money is involved. But it permeates every aspect of life simply cause nothing in life is certain.
…whom to marry, whether to switch jobs, move cities, have another child…
Some of the biggest risks we took we never thought of as risk.
…whom to marry, whether to switch jobs, move cities, have another child…
Some of the biggest risks we took we never thought of as risk.
“The riskiest thing in the world is the widespread belief that there’s no risk.”
— Howard Marks
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I tend to disagree. We become what we consume.
People underplay how deeply media, in all forms, shapes behaviour & choices. This is due to a psychological blind spot known as the 3rd-person effect— the belief that other people are easily persuaded by media while we stay immune.
People underplay how deeply media, in all forms, shapes behaviour & choices. This is due to a psychological blind spot known as the 3rd-person effect— the belief that other people are easily persuaded by media while we stay immune.
Blaming films for rise in violence is like , blaming Ramayana for rise in kidnappings
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Friend visiting from Europe was at Bandra & shocked at the cafe prices.
Burger at Veronica’s: ₹750-800
Caesar salad at Suzette: ₹720
Both places packed.
How did she hear about it? Instagram.
That’s how SM plays us. Everyone else is here, so it must be worth the price.
Both places packed.
How did she hear about it? Instagram.
That’s how SM plays us. Everyone else is here, so it must be worth the price.
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The fall is always gradual, then sudden.
“As business declined, I drew from my savings to keep it afloat”
“There was no financial safety net waiting to catch me. Then the money ran out.”
“As business declined, I drew from my savings to keep it afloat”
“There was no financial safety net waiting to catch me. Then the money ran out.”
Three years ago, I earned $500k/year in tech.
Today, I’m homeless, living in my car.
28 years of experience. Three technical books. AI engineer since the 1990s.
And I can’t find a job.
My story is a warning about the future of work.
medium.com/effortless-pro…
#AI #FutureOfWork
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A small tweak in language & the brain responds differently. Use this to your advantage. My latest weekly Substack post. Link in next tweet.
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Talk about being obscenely lucky!!!!!! That too a salaried employee.
$331 billion in employee options/RSUs covers about 5,300 employees
Caveat: Though an average of $62 million each, when you joined matters enormously.
But still… a could have millions for sure.
$331 billion in employee options/RSUs covers about 5,300 employees
Caveat: Though an average of $62 million each, when you joined matters enormously.
But still… a could have millions for sure.
Who actually gets rich if Anthropic lists at $2 trillion?
The S-1 filed on Monday lets us answer from the filing itself.
The reported target is $1.5T to $2T, listing the week of November 16. The filing implies about 16.9B fully diluted shares. So $2T works out to roughly $118 at $2T:
- $199B for the 7 controlling co-founders, about 10%
- $28B for Ben Mann, if his stake matches theirs
- $100B for the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, 5%
- $331B in employee options and RSUs, about 17% , That pool covers about 5,300 employees, an average of $62M each.
- But when you joined matters enormously.
The S-1 shows how much equity was granted each year, and at what price. [
Headcount went from about 300 to 500 in late 2023, to 940 at end 2024, to 5,300 now.
Match the two, and here is roughly how many people made what at $2T:
- $110M to $400M each: ~300 to 500 people hired by 2023
- $200M to $300M each: ~440 to 640 hired in 2024
- $70M to $95M each: ~1,360 hired in 2025
- $10M to $20M each: ~3,000 hired in 2026
So about 940 people hired by the end of 2024 average nine figures. Everyone hired since averages eight figures.
The 2024 class is the surprise. That year Anthropic granted 1.28B options at $1.30 a share. At $118, that one year of grants is worth about $133B.
Then there is the tender. In April, holders could sell at $25.91 a share. Investors lined up $6B, but only $4.7B sold.
Weeks later, Series H priced at $58.90 a share. At $2T, the people who held would be up 4.6x. And Dario and Daniela Amodei were among the sellers.
The 7 founders have pledged 80% of their equity to charity. That is about $159B at $2T. But the S-1 says the pledges are not legally binding.
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I heard someone describe Financial Stability as the assurance that you can pay your bills & financially handle any unpleasant surprises.
Peace of Mind is what they wanted their money to give them.
Peace of Mind is what they wanted their money to give them.
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Investors need advisors/distributors.
1. To tell them which type fund complements their portfolio
2. The specific fund
3. When to hold & when to sell
4. How different funds come together to to achieve a goal
1. To tell them which type fund complements their portfolio
2. The specific fund
3. When to hold & when to sell
4. How different funds come together to to achieve a goal
Investor on twitter asks which index fund he should invest in.
He logged into a website, saw dozens of index funds to choose from and closed the website.
Index funds are no more just market cap based funds. We may soon have more index funds than active ones.
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The reason for a tailor-made asset allocation is because a portfolio serves multiple purposes:
1. Capital Preservation
2. Capital Appreciation
3. Income generation
4. Ease of liquidity
Depending on age/goals/what you need from your money, the asset allocation is determined.
1. Capital Preservation
2. Capital Appreciation
3. Income generation
4. Ease of liquidity
Depending on age/goals/what you need from your money, the asset allocation is determined.
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October 2026 has been a massive eyeopener.
I don’t ever want to discuss religion/politics with any friend/acquaintance ever again.
Used to avoid it professionally, but now I don’t want to know anyone’s views.
(nothing about RW, leftists, liberal, conservative or whatever)
I don’t ever want to discuss religion/politics with any friend/acquaintance ever again.
Used to avoid it professionally, but now I don’t want to know anyone’s views.
(nothing about RW, leftists, liberal, conservative or whatever)
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