In our last Nobel Prize prediction (for Economics), we're adding three things to prior predictions:
-- Economics-specific context modeling (Arna Wömmel)
-- Field-first prediction (first step)
-- Within the major fields, predicting the defining discovery and the candidate econd step)
Here's our next bold bet for the Nobel Prize in Economic Science:
Steven Berry
Yale University
New Haven, USA
James Levinsohn
Yale University
New Haven, USA
Ariel Pakes
Harvard University
Cambridge, USA
"For the structural estimation of demand and market power in differentiated-product markets"
More detailed results about tomorrow’s chemistry prediction here: github.com/Dawoon-Jeong05…
Alternative results from simulated committee decisions here: x.com/BastosCostaDav…
-- Economics-specific context modeling (Arna Wömmel)
-- Field-first prediction (first step)
-- Within the major fields, predicting the defining discovery and the candidate econd step)
Here's our next bold bet for the Nobel Prize in Economic Science:
Steven Berry
Yale University
New Haven, USA
James Levinsohn
Yale University
New Haven, USA
Ariel Pakes
Harvard University
Cambridge, USA
"For the structural estimation of demand and market power in differentiated-product markets"
More detailed results about tomorrow’s chemistry prediction here: github.com/Dawoon-Jeong05…
Alternative results from simulated committee decisions here: x.com/BastosCostaDav…
The simulated Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences has decided to award the 2026 prize jointly to:
Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
John Moore
“for foundational contributions to collateral constraints, credit cycles, and the financial accelerator”
0
1
3
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics went to Francis Halzen alone for his decisive contributions to the IceCube Neutrino Observatory and the discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos.
Our bold bet on quantum simulators with ultracold atoms (Bloch, Cirac, Zoller) missed. on our list, with Halzen named, but at only 3.5% (14 of 30) due to bundling with co-nominees.
We're carrying three fixes into our Chemistry prediction:
Leaner lineups: AI committees now only nominate combinations they strongly support (10 of 30 Chemistry options are solo candidates)
Patents as evidence: discoveries are now supported by both their defining papers and tied patents
Additional sources: the profile cards are now one main source, weighed alongside prizes, news, predictions and the history of the prize, rather than the main evidence. Bibliometrics alone seem to miss some of what matters; for one, the value captured in patented technology.
Otherwise we used the same framework: "science of science" profile cards (citation impact, defining works, technological translation, textbook reach, collaboration, and now the patents tied to each discovery) built from OpenAlex, PatentsView and Reliance on Science, fed into the Preseen.com forecasting engine.
Here's our next bold bet for the Nobel Prize in Chemistry:
Shankar Balasubramanian
University of Cambridge
Cambridge, UK
David Klenerman
University of Cambridge
Cambridge, UK
"For the development of sequencing-by-synthesis, the basis of next-generation DNA sequencing"
More detailed results about tomorrow’s Chemistry prediction here: github.com/Dawoon-Jeong05…
Alternative results from simulated committee decisions here: x.com/BastosCostaDav…
Our bold bet on quantum simulators with ultracold atoms (Bloch, Cirac, Zoller) missed. on our list, with Halzen named, but at only 3.5% (14 of 30) due to bundling with co-nominees.
We're carrying three fixes into our Chemistry prediction:
Leaner lineups: AI committees now only nominate combinations they strongly support (10 of 30 Chemistry options are solo candidates)
Patents as evidence: discoveries are now supported by both their defining papers and tied patents
Additional sources: the profile cards are now one main source, weighed alongside prizes, news, predictions and the history of the prize, rather than the main evidence. Bibliometrics alone seem to miss some of what matters; for one, the value captured in patented technology.
Otherwise we used the same framework: "science of science" profile cards (citation impact, defining works, technological translation, textbook reach, collaboration, and now the patents tied to each discovery) built from OpenAlex, PatentsView and Reliance on Science, fed into the Preseen.com forecasting engine.
Here's our next bold bet for the Nobel Prize in Chemistry:
Shankar Balasubramanian
University of Cambridge
Cambridge, UK
David Klenerman
University of Cambridge
Cambridge, UK
"For the development of sequencing-by-synthesis, the basis of next-generation DNA sequencing"
More detailed results about tomorrow’s Chemistry prediction here: github.com/Dawoon-Jeong05…
Alternative results from simulated committee decisions here: x.com/BastosCostaDav…
Our simulated Nobel Committee awards the 2026 Chemistry prize to Roberto Car and Michele Parrinello for the Car–Parrinello method in first-principles molecular dynamics.
They led 47/100 decisions, but 46 of those wins came from GPT-5.6 Terra. Claude selected them once.
0
1
4
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine went to Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann, and Georg Nagel for their pioneering work on optogenetics.
Our agent-based prediction models ranked optogenetics 6th (4% probability), which was lower than the leading prediction of GLP-1 at ey over-indexed on recent news rather than longer-term scientific impact.
Interestingly, a parallel approach we tested did predict optogenetics (flagging Deisseroth and Hegemann, though not Nagel). That model leaned into "science of science" signals: citation impact, technological translation, textbook reach, and collaboration networks — drawing on OpenAlex, PatentsView, and Reliance on Science data, all distilled into discovery “cards” and fed into the Preseen.com forecasting engine that took that as primary evidence, alongside the broader universe of relevant data and signals available to that system. Full author profiles and results for medicine here: dawoon-jeong0523.github.io/Author_profile…
Using that same prediction framework, here's our next bold bet for the Nobel Prize in Physics:
Immanuel Bloch
Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics
Garching, Germany
J. Ignacio Cirac
Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics
Garching, Germany
Peter Zoller
University of Innsbruck
Innsbruck, Austria
"for theoretical proposals and experimental realizations of quantum simulators using ultracold atoms in optical lattices"
More detailed results about tomorrow’s physics prediction here: docs.google.com/document/d/1WW…
Want to see the alternative predictions from yesterday’s model? We posted those here: linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
Our agent-based prediction models ranked optogenetics 6th (4% probability), which was lower than the leading prediction of GLP-1 at ey over-indexed on recent news rather than longer-term scientific impact.
Interestingly, a parallel approach we tested did predict optogenetics (flagging Deisseroth and Hegemann, though not Nagel). That model leaned into "science of science" signals: citation impact, technological translation, textbook reach, and collaboration networks — drawing on OpenAlex, PatentsView, and Reliance on Science data, all distilled into discovery “cards” and fed into the Preseen.com forecasting engine that took that as primary evidence, alongside the broader universe of relevant data and signals available to that system. Full author profiles and results for medicine here: dawoon-jeong0523.github.io/Author_profile…
Using that same prediction framework, here's our next bold bet for the Nobel Prize in Physics:
Immanuel Bloch
Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics
Garching, Germany
J. Ignacio Cirac
Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics
Garching, Germany
Peter Zoller
University of Innsbruck
Innsbruck, Austria
"for theoretical proposals and experimental realizations of quantum simulators using ultracold atoms in optical lattices"
More detailed results about tomorrow’s physics prediction here: docs.google.com/document/d/1WW…
Want to see the alternative predictions from yesterday’s model? We posted those here: linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
0
3
9
Tomorrow, the Nobel Assembly announces the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. Today, we're putting our prediction on record.
Knowledge Lab’s simulated Nobel committee predicts that the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will go to:
Daniel J. Drucker
University of
Jens Juul Holst
University of Copenhagen
Copenhagen, Denmark
Svetlana Mojsov
The Rockefeller University
New York, USA
“for GLP-1 physiology and the development of incretin therapies for diabetes and obesity”
This was the most likely outcome informed by deep agentic research across a wide range of data sources and analyses with Preseen, drawing upon Knowledge Lab’s own research, informed by 120 simulations of the Nobel Prize Committee’s deliberation process (x.com/BastosCostaDav…). More details here (docs.google.com/document/d/1l3…).
We'll announce our prediction for each prize the day before it's awarded.
These are bold bets. After the last prize drops, we'll open the hood: which approaches worked, which didn't, and what the horse race tells us. This is a part of larger experiments with Preseen.com to integrate science with forecasting complex human and collective decisions.
Thanks to members of KLab: @BastosCostaDavi, Dawoon Jeong, Robbie Ward, Arna Wömmel, @ArjSabet, Huadong Xiong, and Julia Koschinsky.
Knowledge Lab’s simulated Nobel committee predicts that the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will go to:
Daniel J. Drucker
University of
Jens Juul Holst
University of Copenhagen
Copenhagen, Denmark
Svetlana Mojsov
The Rockefeller University
New York, USA
“for GLP-1 physiology and the development of incretin therapies for diabetes and obesity”
This was the most likely outcome informed by deep agentic research across a wide range of data sources and analyses with Preseen, drawing upon Knowledge Lab’s own research, informed by 120 simulations of the Nobel Prize Committee’s deliberation process (x.com/BastosCostaDav…). More details here (docs.google.com/document/d/1l3…).
We'll announce our prediction for each prize the day before it's awarded.
These are bold bets. After the last prize drops, we'll open the hood: which approaches worked, which didn't, and what the horse race tells us. This is a part of larger experiments with Preseen.com to integrate science with forecasting complex human and collective decisions.
Thanks to members of KLab: @BastosCostaDavi, Dawoon Jeong, Robbie Ward, Arna Wömmel, @ArjSabet, Huadong Xiong, and Julia Koschinsky.
Our simulated committee predicts the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will go to Daniel J. Drucker, Jens Juul Holst & Svetlana Mojsov for their work on GLP-1 and incretin therapies for diabetes and obesity. Most common outcome in 120 runs.
0
3
14
We test this in canonical economic tasks: Dictator, Ultimatum, Trust, Public Goods, Beauty Contest, Lottery Choice, and Normal Form games. The protocol fits behavioral models using payoff variables in source environments, then asks whether those models predict behavior in lent target environments.
1
0
3
Do LLMs behave consistently across scenarios that have identical payoff matrices but differ in formally irrelevant details? A new preprint by Tianjia Dong, Nadav Kunievsky (@NadavKun), and James Evans (@profjamesevans) finds that the answer is often no. Behavior learned in one s to transfer to another. 🧵
1
0
7
Larger models differentiate intents better, but can also be more responsive to superficial wording.
This suggests that we should evaluate models not only on mapping questions to correct answers, but in mapping questions to their intended meanings.
This suggests that we should evaluate models not only on mapping questions to correct answers, but in mapping questions to their intended meanings.
1
0
2
When model outputs vary, we can decompose this into three components:
1.) Variation from wording (articulation sensitivity)
2.) Variation in user intent (intent sensitivity)
3.) Residual variation (model uncertainty)
1.) Variation from wording (articulation sensitivity)
2.) Variation in user intent (intent sensitivity)
3.) Residual variation (model uncertainty)
1
0
1
LLMs can be sensitive to subtle changes in wording that shouldn’t matter. Ideally, models respond not to the specific words of the prompt, but the user’s underlying intent.
In new work accepted at ICML, @NadavKun and @profjamesevans formalize “understanding intent” then ability of LLMs to do so.
(...link below)
In new work accepted at ICML, @NadavKun and @profjamesevans formalize “understanding intent” then ability of LLMs to do so.
(...link below)
1
0
9
Diverse thinkers co-located within universities drive influence! arxiv.org/abs/2107.04165
arxiv.org/abs/2107.04165
@phil_of_ai @profjamesevans @KLakhani and moi show that the work that most influences us is that done by intellectually distant colleagues at the same institution
0
0
3
Mind Bytes 2021 - Research Computing Expo and Symposium| From AI to Quantum Computing: Towards a Transformative Research Ecosystem mindbytes.uchicago.edu Register by March 29 #ArtificialIntelligence #QuantumComputing
0
0
1
The Summer Institute in Computational Social Science at Chicago is back for a 4th year! The Institute is for both social scientists and data scientists and will involve lectures, group problem-solving sets, and participant-led research projects sicss.io/2021/chicago/
0
1
4
Check out @profjamesevans discuss how AI transforms the practice of scientific study and the study of scientific practice, implications for diversity in team-building and innovation #MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence
complexity.simplecast.com/episodes/55?fb…
complexity.simplecast.com/episodes/55?fb…
0
0
1
Check out @profjamesevans Social Science Unhinged ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/92415… in the new IEEE journal, Journal of Social Computing and the invitation to submit your least boring, weirdest, most awesome stuff about how computation transforms the social world ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/92431…
0
1
2
A new collection of summer essays on knowledge and knowing in the algorithmic age out in Critical Inquiry today with an introduction by the inimitable Adrian Johns and @profjamesevans #sociology #uchicago
criticalinquiry.uchicago.edu/current_issue/
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
criticalinquiry.uchicago.edu/current_issue/
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
0
0
2
Save the Date: April 26| Workshop on Crimes of Prediction
Join machine-learning, social theory and ethnography experts for a discussion on the predictability of behavior in the context of crime in Chicago knowledgelab.org/events/detail/… @BettencourtLuis @haroldpollack @AVPapachristos
Join machine-learning, social theory and ethnography experts for a discussion on the predictability of behavior in the context of crime in Chicago knowledgelab.org/events/detail/… @BettencourtLuis @haroldpollack @AVPapachristos
0
2
5
The wisdom of polarized crowds: Study of more than 200,000 @Wikipedia pages finds that collaborations which bridge the political spectrum produce higher quality work nature.com/articles/s4156… #BigData @nature @NatureHumBehav
1
2
5
Team expansion and paradigm stabilization: large teams develop science and technology, small teams disrupt it nature.com/articles/s4158… @Nature #BigData #MachineLearning
0
2
6
Insights into skill discrepancies between research, education and jobs: pnas.org/content/115/50… #BigData #MachineLearning #datamining
0
2
2
@KnowLab research featured in Science of Science paper: science.sciencemag.org/content/359/63… @dashunwang #MachineLearning #BigData
0
0
2
Second Postdoc position available: How Programming Languages Shape Thought knowledgelab.org/research_grant… @SloanFoundation @glupyan @github @UChicago #postdoc
0
5
6
Seeking outstanding candidates for a Postdoc position focusing on Expanding Machine Learning Beyond Social Prediction to Explanation & Intervention knowledgelab.org/research_grant…
@DARPA @UChicago #postdoc #bigdata #MachineLearning
@DARPA @UChicago #postdoc #bigdata #MachineLearning
0
1
1
Validating macroeconomic theories using #remotesensing human activity.
Story: bit.ly/2bY8jMM
Paper: bit.ly/2dOtoJC
Story: bit.ly/2bY8jMM
Paper: bit.ly/2dOtoJC
0
0
6
New paper in @EPJscience assesses distributional impact of economic development from space. bit.ly/2bY8jMM
0
3
5
Convergence of Economic Growth and the Great Recession as Seen From a Celestial Observatory. arxiv.org/abs/1604.04312
0
0
3
An amazing @chronicle write-up of the @KnowLab @comp_inst paper on Choosing Experiments: bit.ly/1SCRgtu
0
2
3
@KnowLab network member Rebecca Steorts named as one of @techreview 35 #Innovators under 35!: bit.ly/1hW36Ck
0
0
1
@KnowLab network member Rebecca Steorts named as one of @techreview 35 #Innovators under 35: bit.ly/1hW36Ck
0
0
0
Nice @techreview writeup on @KnowLab research. @Wikipedia + #openaccess = Revolution: bit.ly/1JCHtCN
0
0
1
Cool piece by @sciencenathan @PacificStand on new research on fact checking using @Wikipedia bit.ly/1J6abcn
0
0
2
New @comp_inst @KnowLab research finds that the “world” of science is surprisingly small: bit.ly/1GCw1WZ
0
0
0
@comp_inst @KnowLab research finds that the “world” of science is surprisingly small: bit.ly/1GCw1WZ
0
2
1
Tomorrow! “Cultural Analytics: Computational Approaches to the Study of Culture”. RSVP here: bit.ly/1Hf1G0j
0
1
1
In 1 HOUR (4p): Sandy Pentland @QuadClub bit.ly/1E631SN
@UChicago @UChicagoSSD @comp_inst @ChicagoBooth
@UChicago @UChicagoSSD @comp_inst @ChicagoBooth
0
0
1
FRI 15th, Alex ‘Sandy’ Pentland gives Computational Social Sciences Distinguished Lecture: bit.ly/1E631SN
0
0
0
May 15th, Alex ‘Sandy’ Pentland to give Computational Social Sciences Distinguished Lecture: bit.ly/1E631SN
0
1
0
Friday @m_sendhil gives Winter Computational Social Science Distinguished Lecture @UChicago: bit.ly/1E631SN
0
0
1
Network representations of “bad” (left) and “good” (right) internets @KnowLab #bigdata bit.ly/1zzXJKk
0
0
0
Network representation of connections between phishing sites @KnowLab #bigdata #datascience bit.ly/1zzXJKk
0
0
2
Once you get into the “bad internet,” it’s hard to get out. @KnowLab @comp_inst #datascience bit.ly/1zzXJKk
0
1
1
Missed @KnowLab researcher Misha Teplitskiy’s workshop on Statistical Learning with Python and Pandas? We recorded it youtu.be/nMZf9V_J_Sw
0
0
1
@KnowLab housed at @UChicago announces $1.5MM in outgoing grants to support #Metaknowledge bit.ly/1t1T1CE
0
0
2
@KnowLab housed at @comp_inst announces $1.5MM for #Metaknowledge supported by @templeton_fdn bit.ly/1t1T1CE
0
1
0
@KnowLab housed at @comp_inst announces $1.5MM for #Metaknowledge supported by @templeton_fdn bit.ly/1t1T1CE
0
3
2
@KnowLab housed at @UChicago @comp_inst announces $1.5MM in awards supported by @templeton_fdn bit.ly/1t1T1CE
0
1
1
Liberating facts with @TheContentMine @comp_inst @KnowLab @petermurrayrust @ianfoster @RDCEPorg @rmounce
0
4
1
How do online databases change the way scientists come up with hypotheses? bit.ly/1x8l7iu #machinescience
0
0
1
Great video from @GoogleResearch about why it's so hard to get computers to understand language youtu.be/yxxRAHVtafI #languagelearning
0
1
1
David McAllester at the Knowledge Lab, explaining how his "entity-phrase semantics" breaks down sentences
0
0
1
If Materialism is True, the U.S. (spatially distributed but informationally integrated) is Probably Conscious. Enjoy! vimeo.com/5017845
0
0
0
@templeton_fdn #metaknowledge retreat well underway. A) Questions have been asked. B) Solutions being proposed.
0
0
0
An "In the Loop" student @Inventables Lamp! Now to do some data science (and squirrel that @Raspberry_Pi away) #STEM
0
7
10
Lamp assembly day for In the Loop class. LED and @Raspberry_Pi time. Next week, data analysis! #STEM
0
0
0
#STEM education continues for "In the Loop" class. Today at the @UChicago @comp_inst! Laser cutting and 3D printing!
0
2
1
'In the Loop' class laser cutting base for @Raspberry_Pi lamp at @chipublib innovation lab. @tmwkenglewood #STEM
0
0
0
Looking at the goal: 3D printed, @Raspberry_Pi powered lamp that pulses to energy data @datascifellows @tmwkenglewood
0
3
3
"In the Loop" class learning to program Raspberry Pi's to collect twitter data today @datascifellows
0
5
4
Bill Catino, @KnowLab engineer, using @Azure to teach Chicago high schoolers about cloud computing. @MSFTChicago
0
1
2