#MargallaDialogue2026| #IPRI

Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Shahbaz Syed, President & CEO @EximBankPK,

"Mr Shahbaz H Syed, President & CEO, Export-Import Bank
of Pakistan

"We all know that in the modern-day world, finding out exactly what thevery easy because there is a lot of information available through AI. The challenge is finding the solution and implementing it. You rightly pointed out that we have dealt with all kinds of reforms over the years, but reforms disappear out of the policy window and are nowhere to be seen. As someone who has worked in policy and as a professor of policy, I will be very candid. Reforms and policies in Pakistan have mostly been driven externally. They have not been driven or thought out within the ministries, nor have they been locally driven. The element of local wisdom has been missing. As economists, we always talk about the two Ws: the will and the way. Based on my experience of over six years, including my work with Raza, international NGOs, and elsewhere, I believe the question of will is very important. We all know the way, including policymakers, decision-makers, and academia, but somehow the will is missing. Ownership and political will are missing. That is the real problem, and we need to find ways to secure that will. That is the real challenge. I would say that reforms have been devised, but somehow they are not implemented and eventually disappear. The reasons are clear. Ownership is one issue. The second is that reforms are not indigenous, and the third is misplaced priorities in our policymaking. These are our biggest challenges. Look at the economic indicators in this country. They speak for themselves. We do not need to look elsewhere to understand where we stand today. Other countries have done it, and so can we. I will re-emphasise that we do not have to reinvent the wheel. Policies and papers are good, but we mostly fail at implementation. Why? Because there is a disconnect. Policy has to be made at the federal level, but implementation has to be the responsibility of the district level. Our policy and planning should move towards decentralisation, with implementation taking place in the districts and provincial governments providing support. That is our main objective. This is easier said than done, but it is very important."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Mr Ezaz A Dar, COO @EPBDT,

"Another problem is that policies on paper look good, but we mostly fail at implementation. Why we fail at implementation? There has been a d implementation. Policy actually is made at the federal and provincial level, but implementation actually is the job of the district. It is at the district level, it goes closer to the people. Our policy and planning has been centralized, now the world is moving towards decentralisation, and that's why we at PIDE are now conducting a study to find the ways how to empower the districts so that policies are made and implemented at the district level, and the federal government or provincial government should support it. So that is our main contention. So this solutions are easier, but the will is lacking, that is why."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Mr Ezaz A Dar, COO @EPBDT,

"We all know in modern day's world, finding out what exactly the problem is very easy because there's a deluge of information. The real challenge is d implementing it. We have dabbled with all kinds of reforms over the years, but reforms disappear out of the window and the results are nowhere to be seen. Reforms and policies in Pakistan have mostly been driven externally. Locally driven and local wisdom element is always missing. But the more important thing is, as in economics 101, we always say there are two W's. The two W's means the will and the way. The question of way is very easy because we all know, we all just knew the policy makers, the decision makers, the academia, everybody. We know the way, but somehow the will is being lacked. Ownership and the political will is being lacked. That is the real problem and that is what we need to ensure and find out how to secure that will. That is the real challenge. I would say that reforms, the brain device, not always out of somehow they're not implemented and they disappear."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

@zafar_masud, President & CEO, @thebankofpunjab,

"Welfare GDP estimates the real size of the economy and distributes it according to how income is actually spread across the popuPakistan's Household Integrated Economic Survey. It starts with Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI), which is defined as GDP plus net primary income and net secondary income, including dividends. This provides a more accurate picture of what people actually have available to them. We then apply this concept across household surveys and income distribution accounts covering thousands of households."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

@zafar_masud, President & CEO, @thebankofpunjab,

"What does this economy's income actually look like at each level of the population? And, as a nation, are we growing and doing bettentional measures like GDP measure the size of the economy using one number for the whole country. They tell you how much Pakistan produced this year, but they do not tell you how that income is distributed among the population.
There is a possibility that two countries can have identical GDP per capita, but in one country, everyone lives close to that average. In the other, a small group takes almost everything, while most people live far below the average.
GDP alone cannot distinguish between these two very different realities.
Welfare GDP estimates the real size of the economy and distributes it according to how income is actually spread across the population, using data from Pakistan's Household Integrated Economic Survey."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Minister of State, for Finance, @BilalAKayani,

The only sustainable way of earning foreign exchange is through exports. So, how do we increase exports? We have to broaden the ucts. We have to increase the number of markets we are trying to access. We have to deepen our existing export sectors.

In order to do that, we have to identify the problems. The diagnosis that has emerged from the discussions in this session, as well as from our countless sessions with the private sector over the last year, points to a few recurring themes.

Again, these issues are not unknown. I think taxation is one. From the larger sectors, you'll also hear about energy prices, policy rates, and, obviously, the availability of financing."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Keynote, Minister of State, for Finance, @BilalAKayani,

"There is no harm in reflecting very briefly on what we have been trying to achieve as a state and as a nation, and then s. The boom-and-bust cycles are obvious to everyone. I won't go into the details. We have achieved macroeconomic stabilisation over the past two and a half years, but this is a point we have to make.
So, how do we ensure that things are different this time? How do we ensure that this is not another consumption-led growth drive that eventually leads to a depletion of foreign exchange reserves, forces us to turn to the lender of last resort, and ultimately makes us put the brakes on?That is really the challenge and the task facing this government every day. It is the Prime Minister's priority.
The simple answer, again repeating something that has already been said, is exports. The fact of the matter is that we run out of foreign exchange, and we have to find a way to sustain our foreign exchange earnings."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Director General, @NIPS_NUST, Prof Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, SI,

"Our remittances are projected to grow to around $44 billion. In the past, our remittances used to bridge around gap. This year, however, they will not be sufficient even to bridge the trade gap. Naturally, our growth will slow down once again, and the boom-and-bust cycle will continue.
So, the government will have to take certain actions and cut down on unnecessary imports. That is why I have been saying all along that an aggressive yet selective import compression policy must be pursued. A selective and aggressive import compression policy should remain in place for at least two to three years, until the balance of payments is under control and this boom-and-bust cycle can be managed. So, this is the historical reconstruction."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Moderator, Chair Economic Security, Dr @SalmanAneel,

"Our fastest-growing export is not textiles. It is our young people.
Our weakness has never been diagnosis. We have o many times, he can now recite the report himself. The problem is that we keep writing the prescription in PowerPoint dosage."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Director General, @NIPS_NUST, Prof Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, SI,

"Today, our growth is consumption and import-led growth, as opposed to investment and export-led growth. So, we nd how can we reverse that? By expanding our tax bases to include untaxed sectors like wholesale and retail trade, real estate, and the services sector. There are many services sector which are untaxed. To bring them in tax net requires direction. If you look at today's environment, I think the government lacks courage to undertake these difficult decisions. So, that is why we are postponing all these things. Second thing is that we must discourage unnecessary imports, luxury imports. When a country is facing balance of payment crisis, borrowing dollars from the IMF and importing 4,000 CC cars and so many electronic vehicles are now coming into Pakistan, which is it will not be manufactured here. It will come here and in lockdown condition, it will simply be assembled here. So, the more you bring those lockdown conditions, your import will increase and definitely get the balance of payment difficulties. Your reserve will keep on declining and then we will have no option but go to the IMF. And this is exactly happening in this current fiscal year. Our trade gap is widening. Trade gap is widening at about $4 billion per month. Our tax imports are $7 billion per month. Imports are around $3 billion per month. So, we have a $4 billion gap. So, if you simply take it into for the 12 months, it will be about $48 billion trade gap this year. My projection is that it will be somewhere around $45, $44, $45 billion gap. Our remittance is projected to grow by around something around $44, $43, $44 billion. Even our remittance which used to contribute to bridge the gap of our trade gap between 15, 25 to 60%, this year it will not be sufficient even to bridge the gap of trade gap. Naturally, our growth will slow down once again. So, the boom and bust cycle will continue. So, the government will have to take certain actions, cut down and throw unnecessary imports. And that is why I have been saying all the time that aggressive and yet selective import compression policy must be pursued. Selective and aggressive import compression policy for at least three years till such time that the balance of payment is under control and this boom and bust cycle can be handled."

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Forum Econ|
Pakistan's Economic Bottlenecks: Diagnosis and Prescription

Moderator, Chair Economic Security, Dr @SalmanAneel,

"Two weeks ago I wrote that the world is not running out of power; it is running out of patience.
Here is what that looks rs. Two-thirds of us are under 30. Nearly one in eight young people who want a job cannot find one. And last year, more than 760,000 Pakistanis registered to work abroad."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

Ambassador @AsifDurrani20, Senior Research Fellow IPRI,

"As a country located along the Indian Ocean, Pakistan offers a substantial market and workforce. It has an base, including sectors such as textiles, agriculture, and manufacturing. It also has important diplomatic and defence relationships with China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States.

CPEC, in particular, offers the potential to connect Western China and Central Asia with the Arabian Sea. Our geography alone is not enough. Stability, modern infrastructure, and peaceful relations with our neighbours are essential."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

Ambassador @AsifDurrani20, Senior Research Fellow IPRI,

"Our relationship should not be interpreted as alignment with one side. Pakistan's primary interest is preventing a g regional stability. Any prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would affect global energy supplies, shipping costs, and inflation, with serious consequences for Pakistan and other energy-importing countries.

Pakistan's participation in the Makkah Pact with the Saudi-Arabian led coalition adds another dimension to this regional responsibility. Pakistan brings military expertise and strategic depth. Saudi Arabia contributes financially and energy resources, while Turkey brings significant diplomatic weight. Our Pakistan must handle this delicate balancing act carefully. We cannot afford to undermine our long-standing relationship with neighboring Iran. Our participation should promote regional stability rather than deepen polarization. Pakistan should therefore encourage a broader security dialogue between Iran and the Gulf states, based on common security interests and mutual respect for national sovereignty.

The changing political landscape in Washington and Islamabad. The recent U.S. midterm elections have resulted in a divided government, with President Trump and the Democrats controlling the House of Representatives. This will likely increase the scrutiny of the Trump administration's foreign policy, including its competition with China."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

@PravinSawhney, Director Force Research Institute,

"Finally, on the 31st of August, it is based on the concept of the new world order, but behind that are these two major powers. This is what we need to understand. This is the institution, but it has the support of two major powers. That's the point. So, when I look at Pakistan today, what do I see? Pakistan is already invested. It is part of major institutions that have been created by these two major powers. For example, it is part of the SCO, it is part of CPEC, and it is part of the Compact of... And it is only a matter of time before it becomes part of the Eurasian strategic architecture and the Greater Eurasian Partnership. So, the point that I'm making here is that we need to understand that America is not invested in this area. This is our geography. This is where, through the vision of the new world order, we can prosper through the institutions that have been created by China."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

@PravinSawhney, Director Force Research Institute,

"Finally, on the 31st of August, it is based on the concept of the new world order, but behind that are these two major need to understand. This is the institution, but it has the support of two major powers. That's the point. So, when I look at Pakistan today, what do I see? Pakistan is already invested. It is part of major institutions that have been created by these two major powers. For example, it is part of the SCO, it is part of CPEC, and it is part of the Compact of... And it is only a matter of time before it becomes part of the Eurasian strategic architecture and the Greater Eurasian Partnership. So, the point that I'm making here is that we need to understand that America is not invested in this area. This is our geography. This is where, through the vision of the new world order, we can prosper through the institutions that have been created by China."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

@PravinSawhney, Director Force Research Institute,

"When discussing the geopolitical context of West Asia and South Asia, we need to view this within the framework of no longer talking about geopolitics alone. We are talking about global geopolitics, which has come to stay in this region.

The first change is that the world became multipolar.

The second is that today in this world, we have three major powers: America, China, and Russia. The distinctive feature of a major power is that they alone can exercise strategic autonomy in their foreign policy. Because of this, these are the countries with the major power to create institutions. Middle powers do not create institutions. Middle powers have to find their national interest within the institutions created by the major powers and explained.

The third, in 2013, two major powers, Russia and China, crafted a vision for the new world order. The vision was that the focus should be on development and we need to have peace. So the three key things about this, I won't go into the details here, they are sovereignty, equality, indivisible security, and United Nations being the center. Because the whole thing is about development, so the Global South nations, they have all subscribed to this vision."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

Ms Shanjida Shahab Uddin, Research Fellow, @BiissInfo,

"Stronger trade connectivity in South Asia can help Bangladesh diversify its exports. At present, we rely heavily on a tional export destinations, particularly for our ready-made garments. If we have stronger trade relations with neighbouring South Asian countries, this could create new markets for Bangladeshi products. These markets could offer opportunities for pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, processed food, light engineering products, and services.

Connectivity can reduce transportation costs and delivery times. If we can improve our roadway, waterway, and port connectivity, businesses will find it easier to move goods across borders. This will also make our regional market more competitive.

I believe Bangladesh has the potential to connect Nepal and India's northeastern region to regional and international markets through its ports and seaports."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

Ms Shanjida Shahab Uddin, Research Fellow, @BiissInfo,

"We know that West Asia possesses enormous energy resources, significant investment capital, and strategic sia, on the other hand, offers a large consumer market, a significant labour force, expanding manufacturing capabilities, and growing demand for energy, technology, and investment."

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Forum B|
West Asia—South Asia: Geopolitics of Connectivity and Competition

Professor Dr @numanis, Ibn Haldun University,

"Our officials also wanted to develop Turkey into an energy corridor carrying oil, gas, and electricity from the Gulf to only a place that needs routes. It is also a region that shapes them.
Closer to this audience is the Islamabad–Tehran–Istanbul Railway. It was launched in 2009 under the Economic Cooperation Organization and has faced repeated delays since 2012 because of security and operational problems. This summer, Pakistan and Turkey agreed in principle to revive the project and develop it into a permanent commercial corridor. They also discussed Turkish investment in Pakistan's ML-1 and ML-3 projects, as well as Turkey's possible participation in the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan railway project."

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