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Welcome Back To The Hurdle Rate
Episode 81: Why Your Savings Keep Shrinking
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down a whipsaw week, record AI capital raising, and why the $BTC to gold chart still looks bullish. They also discuss escaping the fiat mindset, the Bitcoin k run, and how Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS stacks up against the S&P 500.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:21 - A Whipsaw Week For Markets
04:22 - Confusion Has Never Been Higher
07:55 - Everyone Needs Capital
10:55 - Escaping The Fiat Mindset
20:27 - The Paraguay Bank Run
25:28 - Valuing The Future, Not Today
28:04 - Built For Institutional Mandates
32:07 - Digital Credit Vs. The S&P
36:25 - The Thanksgiving Pitch
45:05 - Rethinking Bitcoin Yield
52:51 - Art Over Algorithms
Episode 81: Why Your Savings Keep Shrinking
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down a whipsaw week, record AI capital raising, and why the $BTC to gold chart still looks bullish. They also discuss escaping the fiat mindset, the Bitcoin k run, and how Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS stacks up against the S&P 500.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:21 - A Whipsaw Week For Markets
04:22 - Confusion Has Never Been Higher
07:55 - Everyone Needs Capital
10:55 - Escaping The Fiat Mindset
20:27 - The Paraguay Bank Run
25:28 - Valuing The Future, Not Today
28:04 - Built For Institutional Mandates
32:07 - Digital Credit Vs. The S&P
36:25 - The Thanksgiving Pitch
45:05 - Rethinking Bitcoin Yield
52:51 - Art Over Algorithms
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Matt Cole argues Bitcoin's returns could ACCELERATE as the debt crisis worsens...
@ColeMacro explains why that possibility changes how he thinks about amplification.
@ColeMacro explains why that possibility changes how he thinks about amplification.
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Why not harvest every 1% premium?
@Werkman asks what constant issuance does to the people holding the stock.
@Werkman asks what constant issuance does to the people holding the stock.
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Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) illustrates COMPOUNDING with a hypothetical $SATA reinvestment example...
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Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) suggests starting the Thanksgiving Bitcoin conversation with INCOME...
He draws on conversations around $SATA and $SATS to explain why a familiar product can be easier to discuss.
He draws on conversations around $SATA and $SATS to explain why a familiar product can be easier to discuss.
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YouTube: youtu.be/Ct2GZZhD3Yc
Rumble: rumble.com/user/TheHurdle…
Fountain: fountain.fm/show/6NxpCsM4e…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7LG1LFswz…
Rumble: rumble.com/user/TheHurdle…
Fountain: fountain.fm/show/6NxpCsM4e…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7LG1LFswz…
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Matt Cole uses SpaceX $SPCX to explain the role of TRUST in investing in Strive $ASST ...
"If you're investing in SpaceX, you don't need to understand how to build a rocket." - @ColeMacro
"If you're investing in SpaceX, you don't need to understand how to build a rocket." - @ColeMacro
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Ben Werkman explains why a Bitcoin treasury requires ACTIVE capital decisions...
"You have to be monitoring the markets constantly to figure out when is the right time to make each move." @Werkman
"You have to be monitoring the markets constantly to figure out when is the right time to make each move." @Werkman
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Matt Cole challenges the assumption that Digital Credit's success means LOWER yields...
"I think the opposite's gonna happen, that yields are gonna move higher" - @ColeMacro
"I think the opposite's gonna happen, that yields are gonna move higher" - @ColeMacro
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Matt Cole tests Bitcoin yield with a hypothetical preferred carrying a 100% financing cost.
A $1B raise could produce positive $BTC yield today, while the cost would continue into the future.
“It would very likely be a dumb financing decision.” - @ColeMacro
A $1B raise could produce positive $BTC yield today, while the cost would continue into the future.
“It would very likely be a dumb financing decision.” - @ColeMacro
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Who gets access to the yields financing the AI buildout?
@ColeMacro argues that the gap between institutional and retail access leaves room for Digital Credit to grow.
@ColeMacro argues that the gap between institutional and retail access leaves room for Digital Credit to grow.
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What does a preferred investor actually underwrite?
@ColeMacro uses Fannie Mae's noncumulative shares to separate dividend prospects from expectations of liquidation.
$SATA $SATS $STRC
@ColeMacro uses Fannie Mae's noncumulative shares to separate dividend prospects from expectations of liquidation.
$SATA $SATS $STRC
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Premium or discount? @PunterJeff shows why the denominator matters.
His Nov. 2 close example compares market cap with treasury assets minus preferred equity at face value, then with the fair market value of the $BTC holdings.
His Nov. 2 close example compares market cap with treasury assets minus preferred equity at face value, then with the fair market value of the $BTC holdings.
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A falling chart is not proof of ATM selling, argues @Werkman.
He explains why he wants strong liquidity and price action before selling shares.
"I think the reason is because people are fitting narratives to what they're seeing."
He explains why he wants strong liquidity and price action before selling shares.
"I think the reason is because people are fitting narratives to what they're seeing."
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Ben Werkman says the common stock’s larger moves are EXPECTED with high amplification...
“There’s no way to amplify where it’s not also amplified down.” - @Werkman
“There’s no way to amplify where it’s not also amplified down.” - @Werkman
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Welcome Back To The Hurdle Rate
Episode 80: Debt Crisis Is Accelerating
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6B Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS may compress against junk. They also discuss what Fannie Mae underwriting dividends, why both mNAV frameworks break, and why $ASST trades like perpetual leverage on $BTC.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - The Binance Hack
02:57 - Triple C Spreads Blow Out
11:02 - Bitcoin Still Seen As Risk
14:30 - Digital Credit Spreads Will Compress
18:41 - The Fannie Mae Preferred Lesson
23:22 - Rethinking mNAV
33:00 - Premium Or Discount?
35:36 - Breaking Both Valuation Models
42:17 - The ATM Narrative Is Wrong
46:39 - Perpetual Leverage On Bitcoin
Episode 80: Debt Crisis Is Accelerating
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6B Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why Digital Credit like $SATA and $SATS may compress against junk. They also discuss what Fannie Mae underwriting dividends, why both mNAV frameworks break, and why $ASST trades like perpetual leverage on $BTC.
Here’s the latest with @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, @Werkman, and @TimKotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - The Binance Hack
02:57 - Triple C Spreads Blow Out
11:02 - Bitcoin Still Seen As Risk
14:30 - Digital Credit Spreads Will Compress
18:41 - The Fannie Mae Preferred Lesson
23:22 - Rethinking mNAV
33:00 - Premium Or Discount?
35:36 - Breaking Both Valuation Models
42:17 - The ATM Narrative Is Wrong
46:39 - Perpetual Leverage On Bitcoin
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YouTube: youtu.be/ffztrmLYaBA
Rumble: rumble.com/user/TheHurdle…
Fountain: fountain.fm/show/6NxpCsM4e…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7LG1LFswz…
Rumble: rumble.com/user/TheHurdle…
Fountain: fountain.fm/show/6NxpCsM4e…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7LG1LFswz…
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Joe Burnett reveals why Bitcoin may have quietly ended its bear market FOUR months ago…
“Perhaps the new current thing will eventually be $BTC again… And I think we’re really going to be off to the races by then.” - @IIICapital
“Perhaps the new current thing will eventually be $BTC again… And I think we’re really going to be off to the races by then.” - @IIICapital
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