Gunner@GunnerRocks

Oct 29

relliK Bear 🐻

@relliK_booN

Oct 29

Before everyone says we got fleeced, look at the numbers for draft capital to make this make sense! Y’all forget the math sometimes…

Not all first-round picks are created equal.

The NFL’s traditional draft-value chart assigns the No. 1 overall pick 3,000 points.

The No. 25 . 30 pick? Only 620.

Think about that. A single first overall pick is worth nearly FIVE TIMES as much as pick No. 30 according to the chart.

So when someone says the Bears gave up two first-round picks, the natural reaction is that Chicago mortgaged its future. Especially lame ass Packers fans who will love talking shit on this.

But did they?

The Bears are currently 5-2, and if Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson continue building what we’re seeing, Chicago has a legitimate opportunity to become a perennial playoff contender.

Let’s assume the Bears finish with the 25th pick in 2027 and the 28th pick in 2028.

Using the traditional Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart:

2027 first (#25): 720 points
2028 first (#28): 660 points
2027 fourth (#120): 54 points
2028 fifth received (#140): -36 points

Total net draft capital surrendered: 1,398 points.

Want to know what the eighth overall pick is worth?

1,400 points.

Under this hypothetical scenario, the combined draft capital Chicago surrendered is essentially equivalent to ONE eighth overall pick.

Now, obviously, this assumes the Bears remain the Kings of Da North. It also doesn’t account for the additional value of inexpensive rookie contracts or the difference between receiving multiple picks and one.

But it’s an important perspective that’s getting lost in the conversation.

Now consider what Chicago actually acquired.

Jeffery Simmons isn’t a talented prospect who might develop into a superstar.

He’s ALREADY a superstar.

A 2025 first-team All-Pro who recorded 11 sacks and led NFL defensive tackles with 60 pressures last season.

He’s only 29, remains one of the best interior pass rushers in football, and is under contract through 2030.

Chicago didn’t acquire someone who needs two or three years to develop. They acquired a proven difference-maker who can help this defense immediately.

And anyone who’s watched our secondary understands why generating pressure up the middle matters.
and The timing matters just as much.

The Bears have their franchise quarterback.

They have their offensive-minded head coach.

They’re winning football games.

And they’re still operating within Caleb Williams’ rookie-contract window.

At some point, successful organizations have to transition from accumulating assets to using those assets to pursue championships.

Could those first-round picks become excellent players? Absolutely.

Could Chicago regress, making these selections significantly more valuable? Also absolutely.

And Simmons’ enormous contract will make the $ sitch difficult.

But!

Would you rather gamble on two late-first-round prospects becoming elite players several years from now, or acquire one of the NFL’s best defensive tackles while your championship window is opening?

I’m not suggesting this trade is automatically a win for Chicago.

I’m suggesting that evaluating it simply as “TWO FIRST-ROUND PICKS!” without accounting for where those picks might actually fall is an incomplete analysis.

The difference between the first pick and the 30th pick is enormous.

And if the Bears continue winning, Ryan Poles may have just acquired an elite player for considerably less draft capital than the headlines imply.

The risk isn’t giving up two first-round picks. The risk is whether Chicago can keep those picks near the bottom of the first round.

That’s the bet Poles just made.

And with what we’re seeing from Caleb Williams and this offense, I understand why he’s willing to make it. #DaBears

Gunner@GunnerRocks

Oct 27

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

Oct 27

How newly-acquired DT DeForest Buckner figures to look in a 49ers’ uniform:

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

Oct 27

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

Oct 27

Trade: Colts are sending three-time Pro-Bowl DT DeForest Buckner back to the 49ers, the team that made him a 2016 first-round pick before dealing him to Indianapolis in 2020, per me and @RapSheet. Now Buckner returns to San Francisco, fortifying the 49ers defensive line.