Africa's new credit rating agency, AfCRA, launched this month. Can it change how sovereign risk is assessed?
Wider coverage, new data and a rethink of rating drivers could bring greater differentiation between African sovereigns. Read our new blog post by Tatiana Lysenko 👇

Happening now: geopolitics shocks and development with @doro_rouzet @SongweVera @ishacdiwan @Martin_M_Guzman @mamomihre

📣 Event Alert! How can development progress in a fractured world? 🌍 Join the 2026 FDL/IPD Annual Seminar public session with Mamo Mihretu, Dorothée Rouzet, Martin Guzman & Ishac Diwan, moderated by Vera Songwe.

🗓️ Thu 22 Oct, 17:00–18:30 CEST

Register now! Link in comment 👇

📽️ Webinar recording now available!

Missed our @FinDevLab session on debt challenges in developing countries? Watch it here 👇

🎥 youtube.com/watch?v=jNKuT8…

#DevelopmentFinance #SovereignDebt #Webinar
@SongweVera @IndermitGill @ishacdiwan @mkessler_DC

🌍 Join our #WEBINAR next week 📅 Thursday 9 April. Hear from leading experts incl. @IndermitGill, Benjamin Ramsey, Ye Yu & @SongweVera .

🔗 Register here👇
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

#GlobalEconomy #DebtCrisis #DevelopmentFinance

🌟 We’re hiring!

Looking for candidates passionate about sovereign debt, climate finance & global development, with strong analytical skills.

Work on cutting-edge research & policy.

🔗 More details here👇
findevlab.org/wp-content/upl…

#Hiring #Economics #DevelopmentFinance

📢New Recording ▶️ Webinar — Debt-for-Development Swaps (#D4D): experts from @FinDevLab
@WorldBank, Ivory Coast & @nature_org discuss recent deals, guarantees, risk insurance, and regional activity.

📽️Watch here 👉youtube.com/watch?v=_kn2eg…

#SovereignDebt #Development

📢 🚨 New #CallforInterest! Looking for local partners to produce detailed case studies on large-scale projects funded by the #UAE in renewable energy or by #SaudiArabia in sustainable agriculture. 📨Contact us by January 15! 🔗More details & application info in comment👇

🌟 🌟 Debt-For-Development Swaps 🌟 🌟

🚨 📢 Join our upcoming #WEBINAR this Wednesday!

🔗 Don’t forget to register👇
lnkd.in/ghZTTzaD

📢 🗓️ Join our webinar next Wed 17 Dec, to explore recent trends in #D4Ds. Experts from @FinDevLab @WorldBank, and @nature_org will discuss recent deals, market insights, and future prospects. Register here 👇

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

#DebtForDevelopment #D4D #Webinar

🧐Our latest research offers fresh insights on recent deals, tangible progress, & highlights the crucial need for transparent, standardised savings calculations to unlock D4D’s full potential.

🌍 Why it matters: • Nearly $7 billion in debt refinancing in 2024 • Over $2 billion allocated to SDGs and climate goals • The urgent call for transparent methodologies to build trust and maximise impact

📈 While not a silver bullet, D4D transactions have gained momentum, especially after major deals in 2021 and 2022.

🚨 New Paper on Debt-for-Development Swaps (D4D). These innovative tools are transforming traditional debt into sustainable funding that aligns with the SDGs. 🌍💚Could they become an asset class? Link below 👇#SustainableFinance #SDGs #ClimateAction #DevelopmentFinance

🌟Exciting news! Dr Maxwell Opoku-Afari (@mafari31) joins as a Non-Resident Fellow at @FinDevLab. With 30 years in central banking & international finance, he will help drive innovative research & partnerships in Ghana & beyond. Welcome! findevlab.org/news_and_event…

🚨 New Paper! 🚨Discover how Europe can unlock its investment potential. 🇪🇺💰@StephenPaduano Paduano’s new Paper reveals €190B in unused @EIB capacity—without fiscal costs. Read here👇
findevlab.org/financing-euro…
#Europe #EIB #Finance #Growth

📌Join us next Monday in Paris or online for a high-level academic conference co-hosted by the @FinDevLab
and @Policy_Dialogue. Discuss #G20’s agenda, debt, development, & France's upcoming #G7 presidency. Register here 👇
mailchi.mp/81a7f50fe92d/o…

Why are these ratings so important? 🤔 Sovereign credit ratings are vital to SSA's financial landscape, but debates rage over their accuracy and fairness. This paper dives deep into the structural factors at play.

🚨 New Paper Alert! 🚨 "Tracing the drivers of Sub-Saharan Africa's low sovereign credit ratings," by Tatiana Lysenko. Link in comments 👇
#Africa #SovereignRatings #EconomicResearch

📢💰🌍 New Insights on Sovereign Debt by @starlagriffin : explore the Eurobond market & its impact on LICs. Although meant to support capital flow, the current structure often overlooks LICs' unique challenges, esp. those juggling concessional funding &non-traditional creditors.

🔍 Global uncertainties—US trade policies, potential rate hikes—complicate the picture.💡With tight public funds & rising investment needs, private capital flows are increasingly important. 📊 Our 20-year data shows a shift from bank loans to bonds for external financing.

🚨 Just Released! 🚨🌍 New Short Note 📝 "The $4 Trillion Question: Impact of Prudential Regulation?"🤔 EMDEs face ongoing economic hurdles, mainly due to high interest rates causing negative external transfers.

📢 New paper on project-based guarantees in climate finance! Authored by @reubenmuhindi and @Kiplangat_Josea, it highlights a powerful yet underused tool of blended finance to boost private sector investments in climate projects. 🌍🌿

The Vatican-backed Jubilee Report: A Blueprint for Tackling the Debt and Development Crises and Creating the Financial Foundations for a Sustainable People-Centered Global Economy launches today! #JubileeReport, #Jubilee2025, #TurnDebtIntoHope @JosephEStiglitz @Martin_M_Guzman

Did Climate Finance displace Development Finance?

Examining the structure of the climate finance ecosystem reveals contributions from various sectors.

🚨🚨 Report Release! 🚨🚨

📚The Expert Review on Debt, Nature & Climate Report is now available: ☘️ 💰"Healthy Debt on a Healthy Planet"

@FinDevLab was proud to participate in the Review's Secretariat alongside @ODI_Global @AcetforAfrica and @eclac_un

🚨📢 Don't miss the launch of the report “HEALTHY DEBT ON A HEALTHY PLANET" on Thursday, April 24 🌍☘️. Join us in person in Washington, D.C. or online, with English & Spanish interpretation available. #SpringMeetings

🔗 Register here 👇
debtnatureclimate.org/news/launch-of…

🚨 #ICYMI: Our Debt Restructuring Webinar featured engaging discussions on how to handle debt in the current economic climate. You can now access a 📚 SUMMARY & 🎤 📹RECORDING!
@TMoatti @AGelpern @benjlemoine @mkessler_DC
#DebtRestructuring #DevelopmentFinance #SovereignDebt

📢 💡 WE ARE HIRING !!! Several positions available:
✅ Senior Economist/Research Economist (PhD)
✅ Economists/Research Analysts (Master's level)
Are you interested in joining a dynamic team striving for a more equitable international financial system? APPLY NOW on our website!

🎥 Watch it again! The recording of the event is now available at this link👇
youtu.be/xu-MDba2km0

We are live! Join us now! # Webinar

With: @TMoatti of @Lazard Sovereign Advisory Group,
@AGelpern of @GeorgetownLaw and @PIIE, Sean Hagan, Philippe Guyonnet Dupérat of Club de Paris, @benjlemoine of @CNRS

🚨 Event Alert! Join us TODAY: "Restructuring Sovereign Debt: Lessons From The Past, Reforms For The Future!" Don't miss out – make sure to register! ✍️ #SovereignDebt

📈 Focusing on the 2019 debt situation, Marin Ferry and @ishacdiwan uncovered significant differences in how countries managed their borrowing after the 2000s debt reduction schemes. 💡 Not all nations that borrowed extensively fell into crisis.

🌍 Why are developing countries heavily indebted, again? 🤔 Our latest analysis by Marin Ferry and @ishacdiwan reveals that the debt crises affecting poorer nations are not as inevitable as they seem.

🚨 New Policy Paper Alert! 📄
📢 "HOW THE UK CAN PLUG THE ODA HOLE?"
➡️ On February 28, 2025, PM Keir Starmer announced a significant ODA reduction from 0.5% to 0.3% of GNI, translating to a projected £6.2 billion cut to the UK's aid budget!

🚨 Upcoming Event!🚨 Join us next Monday 24th March in Paris & virtually to discuss: “Restructuring Sovereign Debt: Lessons From The Past, Reforms For The Future".

💰 📊 Debt challenges, and investment approaches. How can they adapt to changing global dynamics? @hmryder highlighted 5️⃣ trends that reflect the evolving #ChinaAfrica relationship

🌍🤝 Opening of the 2025 Amplifying African Voices dialogue series w/ Prof Tang Xiaoyang @Tsinghua_Uni & Hannah Ryder @hmryder @DevReimagined. Dive into the evolution of #ChinaAfrica relations: new models for engagement?#Africa #Investment #DebtRestructuring #AAV @AcetforAfrica

📊 Country platforms are emerging as essential tools to mobilize investment beyond conventional project financing. They strive for significant economic transformations while promoting coordination among diverse stakeholders & tackling both climate action & development challenges.

🌍💡 New Policy Note just released! “Planning and Implementing the Climate and Development Transformation: Country Platforms as Enablers”. In partnership with #C3A. Drafted by @SimaKammourieh @mkessler_DC @BastienBedossa & Andrea Cavallini.
#ClimateAction #SustainableDevelopment

Debt swap flows stand out for their long-term, regular, and predictable nature due to:
1. Extended financial commitments beyond typical cycles.
2. Robust institutional frameworks that withstand shocks.
3. Alliances among multiple stakeholders.

Some key differences between bilateral and trilateral debt swaps:

Check out our latest newsletter here 👇 buff.ly/4jFpjUZ

🌟Explore our latest #Newsletter🌟 featuring 📊 our new Database for Debt Sustainability Analysis 📃 Sean Hagan's Paper on the IMF's Exceptional Access Policy 📚 our insights on the WB’s 2024 International Debt Stats📍Info on DebtCon8 Call4Papers & more

🚨🚨New policy note! 🚨🚨
We are proud to publish Sean Hagan's latest paper: "The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy: It’s Not Working"

Participating in an IMF program - which changes the nature of the fiscal targets reduces errors on external debt, but not overall public debt

This is systematic, especially for non-SIDS. And can be explained in large part by fiscal policy, and to a lesser extent by lower growth than planned

Starting with one example, we look at how projections of debt to GDP ratio evolve over time. For small developing states, they tend to be in line with reality (on average). For larger countries, they tend to underestatimate actual developments. For exemple: Kenya

While the MDB’s big push is continuing, it has been leaking out entirely in 2023, like in 2022 - to private creditors and, to a lesser extent, to China.

The decline in debt levels is both good and bad news: it is a sign that new borrowings have slowed down, likely squeezing budgets and the availability to invest, but it also suggests a reduction in vulnerabilities. [Insert Figure 4]

🙅 Historic reversal of external debt transfers out of lower-middle income countries(2022-2023). First time since 2005 that transfers have reversed direction, threatening economic stability and growth.

🌍The triple crisis constrains spending on key areas like health and education. In the Expert Review’s interim report, learn how these interconnected issues are creating a cycle of vulnerability ⬇️ buff.ly/4eUvGBg
#DebtNatureClimate

📉 High debt levels and environmental shocks are forcing countries to borrow more, making it harder to invest in a country’s sustainable development.

Out today, the Expert Review’s interim report looks at how to break the cycle ⬇️
buff.ly/4eUvGBg

#DebtNatureClimate

@ClemensGvL documents those problems - including with nice graphs. Evidence 1: there is a temptation "under the hood" to manipulate the DCCs to make countries more or less "creditworthy". This is the opacity of DCCs.

The LIC-DSF based its probability on a statistical model relying on an index, the "Debt Carrying Capacity" (DCC), which bucket countries together, and then providing thresholds - above is "high risk", below "low" or "moderate

📢Our #Newsletter is out! Meet our new team members and get a glimpse of our latest updates & publications.
👉mailchi.mp/findevlab/news…

D2S are no solution to sovereign debt crises, but an important instrument to manage financial and sustainability risks, in specific contexts. As more transactions emerge, lessons learned will allow for greater efficiency and scale.🔗Link to Policy Paper 👇
buff.ly/4cuKkO9

Wondering about the usefulness of Debt-to-Sustainability Swaps, how much they can reduce debt, & the conditions for meaningful sustainability impact?We propose an evaluation framework & a #CheckList for policymakers to improve their performance
#PolicyMaking #Sustainability #Debt

📢Excited to share our new policy paper on ☘️Debt-to-Sustainability Swaps (D2S) by @mkessler_DC @ChAlbinet @chekir.💡Learn about the impact of D2S in the cases of #Gabon #Belize #Ecuador & #Barbados👇
buff.ly/4cuKkO9
#Debt #ClimateFinance #SustainableFinance

Very honored to have welcomed HE Amina Mohammed, DSG of the UN, at @FinDevLab last week, for a conversations on debt and development financing in the context of the current emergencies and upcoming global agenda.
@CEPREMAP @PSEinfo

A recent debate on the book here : youtu.be/0xL17JhM0j0?fe…

#DebtCon7 is coming to a close after 3 days of vibrant discussions on #SovereignDebt. We express our gratitude to the speakers,participants & all who joined us in Paris & remotely. Recordings are gradually posted here 👉 buff.ly/44Vh28L Excited to meet again next year!

Kofi Gunu from @UniofOxford uses a political lens on the decision to go to the IMF

Join @PeterRosendorff & others to discuss The Politics & Economics of Sustainability,"covering Ghana’s IMF bailout, IMF loan designs, Argentina’s sustainability & safe assets in emerging markets. W/ @K_J_Brown_, @GeneralTheorist, @ccuevasz, & Kofi Gunu👇
buff.ly/4bIObXF

11:30 am CET: Domestic Debt & Defaults session chaired by @sarahmbrooks. We'll explore multilateral debt relief, Ghana's debt exchange, SL’s restructuring, & sovereign defaults. @MarinaZucker, @UliVolz, @GodfredA_Bokpin, @ChayuDamsinghe, & M. Picarelli.👇 buff.ly/3Vmwh7x

At 11:30 am CET, join @JFloresZendejas & other participants for a discussion on #SovereignDebt and its history. Featuring @VeldeFrancois, @flandreaumarc, @Ignatiusmasi, Josefin Meyer, & Margret Mbewe. #DebtHistory #DebtRestructuring #LiveStream👇 buff.ly/4bXpG90

Plenary session with Sean Hagan and @Brad_Setser's recently published @PIIE proposal in debate at #DebtCon7
How much would it help accelerate debt treatments ?

#DebtAndTaxes: chaired by @SilviaMarches12, this session addresses industrial policy, inflation risk, debt sustainability, and tax revolts. @SilviaMarches12 @MattHGoldmann @carlogalli6 @monicatranxuan & Fernando Arce. #LiveStream 👇
buff.ly/454UnGN

8am CET @MarkManger is leading a session on local currency financing incl. dollarization, sovereign ratings, & financial cycle transmission.Join @jsebastianla1, @andyneumeyer, @suedekum, @Haonan_Zhou @MBoisseauSierra, R. Chen, & Petachhi. Join online👇 buff.ly/4bIObXF

#DebtCon7 Day 3️⃣ 8am CET: Join Adil Ababou of @gatesfoundation, @ChristinaLaska1, Sayantan Ghosal, Alexandre Balduino Sollaci & Aitor Erce to discuss coordination and comparability issues in #DebtRestructurings 👇
buff.ly/3KkT9On

Now for the last session of the day, in conversation with @upanizza, @OdileRenaud explains how work to improve governance and financing of SOEs can improve resilience

Join Day 2️⃣ of #DebtCon7 w/ our Keynote Speaker @OdileRenaud, President of the @EBRD, for an insightful conversation w/ @upanizza: "Transitioning to Market Economies & Reshaping the State’s role in the Economy". Tune in to the #LiveStream at 16:30 CET👇 buff.ly/3wKsdEy

'⏰ Don't forget to tune in at 2:30pm CET for the #DebtCon7 discussion @banquedefrance on "Solvency & Liquidity at high nominal rates", where we will explore the impact of government and central bank strategies amidst unusual rate increases. #Economy #Fiscal #Policy #LiveStream👇

Jerome Sgard présents his book with a great set of commenters : Sean Hagan, @AGelpern and @ugo

📚 #BookPresentation 🕙 11:30 CET: “The Debt Crisis of the 1980s” by Jérôme Sgard. Join @upanizza, @AGelpern & Sean Hagan for a discussion on the law & political economy of the 1980s #DebtCrisis. 👇
buff.ly/3wWNzOV

#DebtCon7 join the // session led by Rosa Lastra on discussing creditor dispersion, bondholder heterogeneity, lending diversification & more. Panelists include @ClemensGvL, Stephane Guibaud, Elya J. Zhang, & Babacar Sene. #DebtCon7 #LiveStream 👇 buff.ly/3R3Xf16

#DebtCon7 Day 2️⃣ Melissa Butler discusses state-contingent debt instruments, like governance/growth linked bonds & other innovative forms of debt + a focus on Sri Lanka, w/ @NCdeMel, @UPeiris, @alvespina, @AcalinJulien & Mark Walker #LiveStream👇buff.ly/4dZqI5V

#DebtCon7 Day 2️⃣ 9:40am CET: Join a session w/ experts discussing the connection between #HumanRights & #PublicDebt. Hear from @dannybradlow, @ProfSuryaDeva, @AttiyaWaris, Penelope Hawkins, @JoshshemJunior, @alkiechel, @mahindasiriwar6 & Deborah Zandtra👇 buff.ly/3wWNzOV

#DebtCon7 attendees don't disappoint! Great turn out for the 8 am session with 5 papers. In typical manner - mixing a polsci paper based on case studies with complex macro models.
@nicolaslippolis @GBonfantiEcon

#DebtCon7 Day 2️⃣ kicks off w/ an engaging // session dedicated to Emerging Scholars. Join us 8-9:40am CET for groundbreaking research presentations by talented young individuals exploring the topic of #SovereignDebt. Don't miss out❗️ buff.ly/3R36VZP

3 tough questions for the Argentina panel - when will Argentjna restructure again? When will it go to the markets again? When will @IMFNews exposure be below $10b?
Juan Carluccio couragely takes the first stab at answering

Full house for the bilateral lending session. Who lends to whom at what terms? ask @LaynaMosley and Alexandra Zeitz with incredible loan level data

#DebtCon7 Panel 2 wrapping up! @AvinashPersau15 challenges panelists on lack of debt restructurings despite high debt. @AndyPowell_Econ notes economic costs and suggests better debt management. State-contingent instruments could help avoid restructuring.

#DebtCon7 continues after the midday break. Our first discussion is on the consequences of debt crises, featuring a distinguished panel with expertise in managing some of the most significant restructurings in recent times. Don't miss out!

🚀Join #DebtCon7 Day 3️⃣: Enroll for the Online Event 👇
🕘 AM sessions 🔗 buff.ly/3yEgNCC
🕑 PM sessions 🔗 buff.ly/3WQmBmI@chekir
@Brad_Setser @WilliamRoos4 @BCoeure @jzettelmeyer @LaynaMosley @rezabaqir @KPatricio_ @AGelpern @Shahinvallee @ArmandZorn

🚀 Join #DebtCon7 Day 2️⃣ for online participation:
🕘 Morning sessions 🔗 buff.ly/3UVggUo
🕑 Afternoon live stream
✅ Panel 4 on Solvency & Liquidity:
🔗 buff.ly/3ytExJV
✅ Keynote session by @OdileRenaud from @EBRD: 🔗 buff.ly/3wKsdEy

🚀Join #DebtCon7 Day 1️⃣: Enroll Today for the Online Event 👇
🕘 Morning sessions 🔗buff.ly/4btotGB
🕑 Afternoon sessions 🔗buff.ly/45a7irn
@ishacdiwan @SongweVera @njaresko @DeboraRevoltel1 @AdeMontchalin @ManuelidesY @DavidNdii @BBSimons

🚀 Join #DebtCon7, the premier annual event focusing on #SovereignDebt. 📢 Check out the Conference Schedule & Registration details 👇 buff.ly/44Vh28L@CEPREM…
@GtownLawIIEL @GeorgetownLaw @PrincetonSPIA @GVAGrad @OpenSociety @devex @DebtCon7

In % of GDP, and broken down by risk categories (using the recent paper by Albinet/Kessler), we can see the source of these concerns. "Illiquid" countries (with high debt service) are maintained afloat by IFIs (from 2.1% of GDP on average in 2019 to 0.4% in 2022)