USD index breaks last weeks low
USDJPY is leading, lower global yields takes pressure off the BOJ
USDJPY is leading, lower global yields takes pressure off the BOJ
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10y yields testing the neckline of H+S pattern
After a brief drop equity market is resolving higher on GDP miss....impressive at this new level of Fed pricing
After a brief drop equity market is resolving higher on GDP miss....impressive at this new level of Fed pricing
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ETH remains the leader, at one point up >20% in 24h yesterday! We printed a marginal new range high
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The path of Fed pricing is less steep on both sides: less chance of over tightening means less likelihood of cutting
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Nasdaq getting back close to the week's highs
Overall read is Powell was more dovish than recent meetings and traders interpret that 75 in Sept is less likely
Overall read is Powell was more dovish than recent meetings and traders interpret that 75 in Sept is less likely
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Current pricing through Jul23 below
77bps for tonight, 60bps for Sep 21st meeting & first cut by Jun
77bps for tonight, 60bps for Sep 21st meeting & first cut by Jun
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Upping the ante ahead of tomorrow's FOMC
Here is pricing:
Here is pricing:
Tomorrow, Powell is likely to be asked: “Market pricing implies that the terminal FF rate will peak at 3.4% in 12/22 immediately declining thereafter to 2.7% by YE ‘23. What factors would cause the @federalreserve to immediately lower rates after just raising them?” Interestingly
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Weak cash open for equity markets, tech in particular testing Friday's lows. Perhaps nerves about the earnings releases from Tues-Thurs
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Despite the events coming up this week, the VIX is at recent lows. Another sign of low positioning ie: nothing to hedge?
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EUR strength from the 50bp ECB hike is proving short lived (clearly significant macro headwinds facing the EZ)
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Italy news ---> lower EUR ----> lower risk assets
This should remind us how pivotal the DXY's direction is for risk assets
Reminder EUR is >60% of the DXY
This should remind us how pivotal the DXY's direction is for risk assets
Reminder EUR is >60% of the DXY
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It's not been a good week to be short European assets ....equities credit and FX squeezing hard into ECB
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Stand off in equity markets as the market heads into Q2 reporting....various resistance points into 3950, but positioning is extreme underweight
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Driving more broad USD weakness
👇ECB 50bps THIS WEEK ??👇
Sources say ECB policymakers to discuss 50 bps rate hike this week ... RTRS
reuters.com/markets/europe…
ECB Is Looking More Closely at a Half-Point Hike This Week ... BBG
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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