This bad take WSJ story about "disillusioned" youth voters annoyed me so much that I decided to debunk it with data. No, it was older voters who didn't vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/no-wall-stre…

Florida Governor DeSantis may not be the tonic Republicans need to chase away the blues michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-desantis…

What to expect with the Mississippi U.S. Senate election michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/mississippi-…

I posted a preliminary turnout rate for the 2026 election: 124.3 million voted for a turnout rate of 49.42% among those eligible to vote. Falls short of the 2018 turnout rate of 50.05%, which was the highest since 1914
election.lab.ufl.edu/2026-general-e…

I'm posting Election Day turnout by party registration for Delaware, Florida, and Nevada over on the better place. Won't post them here

#earlyvote evening update 11/2: at least 58.4 million people have cast a ballot in the 2026 general election

New pre-election record for a midterm election 🥳🎉

This concludes my pre-election early vote updates
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

I can't believe that I have to write this, but here we are. Numbers are not ballots. michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/early-vote-s…

It will be a tall order for Florida Democrats to win the Florida statewide offices michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/florida-earl…

Maine is close, but I give Jackson the edge to defeat Collins based on the early vote. But there is a lot of uncertainty because Maine is a low volume early vote state michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/maine-early-…

My early vote forecasts for Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska. These forecasts are uncertain because these are not high volume early vote states. Democrats start in a hole that they are clawing their way out of, but it may not be enough michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/iowa-kansas-…

#earlyvote early afternoon update 11/2: at least 57 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

#earlyvote midday update 11/2: at least 56 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

#earlyvote morning update 10/2: at least 55 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

A big surge in African-Americans voting early in Louisiana has people talking that Democrat Davis has a shot. There's probably not enough juice there for a Demcoratic win michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/louisiana-ea…

Come and get them! My voting-eligible population estimates for 2026. This is where I will post the turnout rates post-election. I usually post those around 5am Wednesday after I stay up all night.
election.lab.ufl.edu/2026-general-e…

#earlyvote afternoon update 11/1: at least 54 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

Okay. Here we go. My first election forecasts with the early vote for Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. tl;dr I generally see agreement with the polling michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/georgia-nort…

I've written an explainer on how to use early voting to forecast election outcomes michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-to-use-e…

#earlyvote morning update 11/1: at least 53 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

#earlyvote afternoon update 10/31: at least 52 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…