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anytime touchdown is the most bet prop every week and until now, it was the hardest to find good data to research it.
i built this so the usage, the matchup and the regression gap sit on one screen. this is how you find the guys that are actually going to score.
i built this so the usage, the matchup and the regression gap sit on one screen. this is how you find the guys that are actually going to score.
Introducing the NEW Touchdown Cheat Sheet.
Red-zone usage for every player, then the matchup, then his expected outcomes.
Touchdowns scored vs. touchdowns his usage supports, so you can see who’s due and who’s over performing.
Shown: The data for the top 13 Touchdown usage weeks
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120,020
THE MNF LADDER OF THE NIGHT🪜
Tory Horton was getting a lot of rookie hype last season. Then he got hurt. Then they traded for Shaheed. Well now he is healthy and Shaheed is hurt. It is Tory time.
No Rashid Shaheed so Horton gets a more consistent role here. He has played 100% ed has not been on the field. While the Seahawks do run heavier personnel sets above average, opposing offenses spread it out with 3 WRs against the Bears 6th most in the NFL with respect to the personnel other defenses have faced.
2nd year player that ranked ~50th percentile in separation ability in his rookie year vs man and zone but 80th percentile vs Press coverage (per @RecepPerception), and was only getting better deeper into last season before getting hurt.
Bears defense isn’t great but they improved their defensive line with the Jeffrey Simmons trade. Seattle already wants to lean on the pass with Darnold and JSN considering how bad their run game has been, so that doesn’t change much and just means more passing for potential Horton routes and targets.
Bears play a lot of man coverage and likely send extra attention to JSN (as most teams try to do), opening up for Horton to win at the line and have some deep shots, but he’s also good enough to mix in routes for targets on smaller chunks.
Since last season without Rashid Shaheed:
vs Man: 0.19 TPRR, 1.91 YPRR, 2.7 AYPRR
vs Zone: 0.15 TPRR, 0.99 YPRR, 1.98 AYPRR
Bears have even the worst deep ball defense in the NFL, especially to outside WRs. While JSN is the easy answer to that, if they over compensate, nobody benefits more than Horton.
Bears defense on throws of 20+ Air Yards:
22.0 Yards per Attempt (Most)
68.9 Completed AY/Game (Most)
33.3 aDOT (Most)
53.8% Comp% (2nd Most)
57.7% Catchable Pass% (3rd Most)
Similar WRs that have route winning ability but are lined up on the outside running deep routes as the 2nd or 3rd option against the Bears include Jahan Dotson (87), Whoever you consider the 2nd option in Green bay (Both had 120+), Isaiah Williams (73), Wicks (32), Jalen Coker (128, McMillan also had 75 if you consider him the 2nd option).
There were a few tougher ones mixed in there with Kyle Williams last week (literally ran a go route on every play) and Jordan Addison (Brutal weather game), but this is a boom/bust type of play so if we are looking at 0 yards or 70+, then the Ladder is the right way to attack it.
Tory Horton o19.5 Rec Yards (-127)
Tory Horton o39.5 Rec Yards (+250)
Tory Horton o59.5 Rec Yards (+650)
Tory Horton o79.5 Rec Yards (+2250)
Tory Horton o99.5 Rec Yards (+3300)
Seattle Seahawks | #Seahawks
Tory Horton was getting a lot of rookie hype last season. Then he got hurt. Then they traded for Shaheed. Well now he is healthy and Shaheed is hurt. It is Tory time.
No Rashid Shaheed so Horton gets a more consistent role here. He has played 100% ed has not been on the field. While the Seahawks do run heavier personnel sets above average, opposing offenses spread it out with 3 WRs against the Bears 6th most in the NFL with respect to the personnel other defenses have faced.
2nd year player that ranked ~50th percentile in separation ability in his rookie year vs man and zone but 80th percentile vs Press coverage (per @RecepPerception), and was only getting better deeper into last season before getting hurt.
Bears defense isn’t great but they improved their defensive line with the Jeffrey Simmons trade. Seattle already wants to lean on the pass with Darnold and JSN considering how bad their run game has been, so that doesn’t change much and just means more passing for potential Horton routes and targets.
Bears play a lot of man coverage and likely send extra attention to JSN (as most teams try to do), opening up for Horton to win at the line and have some deep shots, but he’s also good enough to mix in routes for targets on smaller chunks.
Since last season without Rashid Shaheed:
vs Man: 0.19 TPRR, 1.91 YPRR, 2.7 AYPRR
vs Zone: 0.15 TPRR, 0.99 YPRR, 1.98 AYPRR
Bears have even the worst deep ball defense in the NFL, especially to outside WRs. While JSN is the easy answer to that, if they over compensate, nobody benefits more than Horton.
Bears defense on throws of 20+ Air Yards:
22.0 Yards per Attempt (Most)
68.9 Completed AY/Game (Most)
33.3 aDOT (Most)
53.8% Comp% (2nd Most)
57.7% Catchable Pass% (3rd Most)
Similar WRs that have route winning ability but are lined up on the outside running deep routes as the 2nd or 3rd option against the Bears include Jahan Dotson (87), Whoever you consider the 2nd option in Green bay (Both had 120+), Isaiah Williams (73), Wicks (32), Jalen Coker (128, McMillan also had 75 if you consider him the 2nd option).
There were a few tougher ones mixed in there with Kyle Williams last week (literally ran a go route on every play) and Jordan Addison (Brutal weather game), but this is a boom/bust type of play so if we are looking at 0 yards or 70+, then the Ladder is the right way to attack it.
Tory Horton o19.5 Rec Yards (-127)
Tory Horton o39.5 Rec Yards (+250)
Tory Horton o59.5 Rec Yards (+650)
Tory Horton o79.5 Rec Yards (+2250)
Tory Horton o99.5 Rec Yards (+3300)
Seattle Seahawks | #Seahawks
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2
99
14,130
MNF Breakdown Article and Early PrimeTime Parlay⤵️
JJ is just hammering elite breakdowns every game with these new MCA Articles.🔥
JJ is just hammering elite breakdowns every game with these new MCA Articles.🔥
Can Luther Burden still have a productive game against the Seahawks secondary? If not, then who else could produce?
Ben Johnson's offense vs Mike Macdonald's Defense on Monday Night Football and I have the full breakdown below 👇
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0
22
18,020
ANTONIO WILLIAMS IS MOVING🔥
Antonio Wiliams o37.5 Rec Yards (-113)✅
Antonio Wiliams o49.5 Rec Yards (+165)✅
Antonio Wiliams o37.5 Rec Yards (-113)✅
Antonio Wiliams o49.5 Rec Yards (+165)✅
1
1
65
20,285
SNF Surgical Card Week 8 (and @MCAnalyticsHQ PrimeTime Parlay) 🏈
Pre-Game Stream was fun! Here is what we cooked up
Antonio Wiliams o37.5 Rec Yards (-113)
Antonio Wiliams o49.5 Rec Yards (+165)
Antonio Wiliams o79.5 Rec Yards (+572)
Antonio Wiliams o119.5 Rec Yards (+1800)
I cooked up with @JSleeprStats with the help of his Article he put together on the site!
Pre-Game Stream was fun! Here is what we cooked up
Antonio Wiliams o37.5 Rec Yards (-113)
Antonio Wiliams o49.5 Rec Yards (+165)
Antonio Wiliams o79.5 Rec Yards (+572)
Antonio Wiliams o119.5 Rec Yards (+1800)
I cooked up with @JSleeprStats with the help of his Article he put together on the site!
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2
63
26,286
Another Elite SNF Breakdown from JJ with PrimeTime Parlays included!
You guys know we don't usually have time to put together a SNF PrimeTime video but JJ has been putting them in Articles now!
Link is in his comments so make sure to check it out. I am also doing a pre-game Live stream to go over a lot of the same things he did, but he posts the Articles much earlier in the week
You guys know we don't usually have time to put together a SNF PrimeTime video but JJ has been putting them in Articles now!
Link is in his comments so make sure to check it out. I am also doing a pre-game Live stream to go over a lot of the same things he did, but he posts the Articles much earlier in the week
Divisional Matchup between the Commanders and Eagles Sunday night with lots of possibilities. Below I go through both teams injuries, coverages, and potential advantages/disadvantages!
- Diggs vs Williams? Or is it somebody else?
- If Smith remains OUT than who is the primary ll answered in the article linked below 👇
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0
17
19,991
No way the Raiders benched bro for saying this??
#Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty on facing the #Jets defense this week:
"Yeah. I think we can definitely get the run game going. Get back on track. ... A couple guys out there that don't really want to tackle, but I'm not going to say names." 😳
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38
2,462
387,444
3 Wide Receivers and 4 Running Backs that are getting in the endzone today
Got to show love to the new @MCAnalyticsHQ tool that helps me craft these bad boys!
Got to show love to the new @MCAnalyticsHQ tool that helps me craft these bad boys!
Introducing the NEW Touchdown Cheat Sheet.
Red-zone usage for every player, then the matchup, then his expected outcomes.
Touchdowns scored vs. touchdowns his usage supports, so you can see who’s due and who’s over performing.
Shown: The data for the top 13 Touchdown usage weeks
5
0
38
34,979
Free Week Trial to the tool: mcanalytics.co
One of MANY Elite tools to help you win more money for NFL, NBA, MLB and Soccer Player Props
One of MANY Elite tools to help you win more money for NFL, NBA, MLB and Soccer Player Props
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0
1
7,178
Dr. Profit🩺 retweeted
First week of the new Touchdown Sheet.
Why not us?
Why not us?
Introducing the NEW Touchdown Cheat Sheet.
Red-zone usage for every player, then the matchup, then his expected outcomes.
Touchdowns scored vs. touchdowns his usage supports, so you can see who’s due and who’s over performing.
Shown: The data for the top 13 Touchdown usage weeks
2
1
10
7,813
EIGHT Surgical NFL Plays 🏈 Week 8
Who wants the Touchdown Parlays...? Yes, Plural.
Chase Brown o57.5 Rush Yards (-111)🪜
Sam Laporta o45.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Travis Hunter o1.5 Receptions (-135)🪜
Ashton Jeanty o80.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-115)🪜
Drake London o78.5 Rec Yards (-111)
ptions (-135)
Detroit Lions -3 Spread (-120)
Michael Wilson Touchdown (+189)
Lets have a great week! Good luck to everyone tailing 🍀
Who wants the Touchdown Parlays...? Yes, Plural.
Chase Brown o57.5 Rush Yards (-111)🪜
Sam Laporta o45.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Travis Hunter o1.5 Receptions (-135)🪜
Ashton Jeanty o80.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-115)🪜
Drake London o78.5 Rec Yards (-111)
ptions (-135)
Detroit Lions -3 Spread (-120)
Michael Wilson Touchdown (+189)
Lets have a great week! Good luck to everyone tailing 🍀
13
1
131
43,469
THE "WEEK AFTER NATIONAL TE WEEK" WEEK 😈
Sam Laporta o45.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Detroit Lions | #OnePride
You guys know that I know my Lions. Lets rock!
100 likes for my full list ❤️
Only one target late last game in a matchup that was favorable for every one and he is the least so it makes sense that everyone else ate.
How he gets a Minnesota team that blitzes HEAVILY. This hurts Gibbs because he has to stay in and block.
Jameson Williams comes down to 12% TPRR vs blitz.
So that leaves Laporta and Amon Ra. The key is that Laporta’s 3.1 YPRR vs blitz is Significantly higher than his baseline numbers, and his TPRR comes comfortably higher in blitzes vs 2-high and blitzes that actually generate pressure, but the sample size is just a bit small
Sam Laporta o45.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Detroit Lions | #OnePride
You guys know that I know my Lions. Lets rock!
100 likes for my full list ❤️
Only one target late last game in a matchup that was favorable for every one and he is the least so it makes sense that everyone else ate.
How he gets a Minnesota team that blitzes HEAVILY. This hurts Gibbs because he has to stay in and block.
Jameson Williams comes down to 12% TPRR vs blitz.
So that leaves Laporta and Amon Ra. The key is that Laporta’s 3.1 YPRR vs blitz is Significantly higher than his baseline numbers, and his TPRR comes comfortably higher in blitzes vs 2-high and blitzes that actually generate pressure, but the sample size is just a bit small
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1
123
35,930