Jaime Lopez retweeted
Agentic commerce is undeniably overhyped based on current usage
...but, I'd be willing to bet it's massively underhyped based on volume agents will drive in ~3-6 months.
And, if you're not optimizing your product (software, service, or physical good) for agents, you'll be left behind.
Why?
1. As Maia's demo shows - agents are much improved, but still nowhere near perfect. 99% of consumers will churn off an agent if there are any issues or delays. Browser use is still slow / buggy and the ecosystem of connectors / plug-ins available on these agents are nascent.
Similarly - saving down credentials, handling payments, etc. all have too much friction and uncertainty now. This will all be solved over time.
2. The VAST majority of consumers still are not using agents. Pick a person off the street in any city other than SF, and they have likely heard of neither Muse nor Instinct.
These products have (so far) done a fantastic job optimizing for the workflows / use cases of high income, tech-forward SV users. They are still early in doing things that are valuable for the mainstream user on a repeatable basis (retention), especially while being able to offer the product for free.
This will likely involve unlocking network effects (yes, some consumer agents now are multiplayer but usage is fairly low) and giving people ways to make money / spend time vs. save money / save time (@ekuyda's thesis!) Model costs coming down will help here too.
3. "Agents" right now generally refer to standalone harnesses built for consumers to use (Instinct, Muse, Fo, Tomo, Pally, Folk, Tab, Daimon and many others).
These products will continue to grow - and consumers will interact with agentic models more frequently via products like ChatGPT (now at 1.2B WAUs), that can now complete purchases instead of just recommending products.
As ChatGPT rolls out its wallet and more developers connect plug-ins, I could see a massive increase in % of LLM queries that lead to in-chat transactions. And, early data shows that AI-driven traffic is actually higher conversion and intent than non-AI commerce traffic.
...but, I'd be willing to bet it's massively underhyped based on volume agents will drive in ~3-6 months.
And, if you're not optimizing your product (software, service, or physical good) for agents, you'll be left behind.
Why?
1. As Maia's demo shows - agents are much improved, but still nowhere near perfect. 99% of consumers will churn off an agent if there are any issues or delays. Browser use is still slow / buggy and the ecosystem of connectors / plug-ins available on these agents are nascent.
Similarly - saving down credentials, handling payments, etc. all have too much friction and uncertainty now. This will all be solved over time.
2. The VAST majority of consumers still are not using agents. Pick a person off the street in any city other than SF, and they have likely heard of neither Muse nor Instinct.
These products have (so far) done a fantastic job optimizing for the workflows / use cases of high income, tech-forward SV users. They are still early in doing things that are valuable for the mainstream user on a repeatable basis (retention), especially while being able to offer the product for free.
This will likely involve unlocking network effects (yes, some consumer agents now are multiplayer but usage is fairly low) and giving people ways to make money / spend time vs. save money / save time (@ekuyda's thesis!) Model costs coming down will help here too.
3. "Agents" right now generally refer to standalone harnesses built for consumers to use (Instinct, Muse, Fo, Tomo, Pally, Folk, Tab, Daimon and many others).
These products will continue to grow - and consumers will interact with agentic models more frequently via products like ChatGPT (now at 1.2B WAUs), that can now complete purchases instead of just recommending products.
As ChatGPT rolls out its wallet and more developers connect plug-ins, I could see a massive increase in % of LLM queries that lead to in-chat transactions. And, early data shows that AI-driven traffic is actually higher conversion and intent than non-AI commerce traffic.
re: agentic shopping
I have NEVER in my life heard so much hype and discussion about a tech/product experience that basically does not work at all for me.
I feel like I’m using theranos
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
Most institutions today have FedNow and RTP set to receive only.
Our execution framework is built to support institutions in enabling send, learn more by watching the video below.
Interested?
Visit our website at coinbax.com
Our execution framework is built to support institutions in enabling send, learn more by watching the video below.
Interested?
Visit our website at coinbax.com
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
YOU'RE BORN. YOU SEE PANTS STYLES GO FROM BAGGY TO SKINNY BACK TO BAGGY EVERY 10 YEARS FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE. YOU DIE. THE END
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
Technical moats are mostly over at this point. If you’re building something that is meant to be durable, the only moats now are:
• Proprietary data
• Network effects
• A physical component
• Proprietary data
• Network effects
• A physical component
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
Can you IMAGINE the shame of being the guy who Pretty Womaned KELLY F*CKING CLARKSON?!?
Just drove all the way to Brooklyn to check out this store I thought looked really rad and had a few things in mind to buy and literally was looked at as if I couldn’t afford it and was told he could find something comparable for me. Wow, dude. You’re an idiot and just lost a huge sale. But y’all should go check out Art of Play in Brooklyn if you enjoy being treated like Julia Roberts character in Pretty Woman. For sure, check it out 👎
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
If only the Gambling Addiction Group had properly hedged for this risk!!!!!!!!
SCOOP: Kalshi gave $2 million to a gambling addiction advocacy nonprofit. It blew up in the nonprofit's face.
Senior staff resigned, donors pulled out, and the org's future is in question.
Here's the inside story of the National Council on Problem Gambling's implosion.
1/🧵
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Can’t remember the most recent “must watch” show on Netflix.
Ted Sarandos Admits Netflix Is "Not Growing as Fast as I Want Us To" hollywoodreporter.com/business/busin…
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
Thanks to the @cosmos team for the platform to share some ideas 🙏
Peter Glyman @pglyman, Founder & CEO of @CoinbaxHQ, makes the case for implementing transaction-level controls as banks adopt tokenized money.
In a guest article on the Cosmos blog, he looks at how those controls differ across stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
Read more: cosmos.bz/4AB7sqN
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
The new generation will probably never know
I am wondering when most places (not Google) will drop Leetcode
I am wondering when most places (not Google) will drop Leetcode
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
It’s interesting that the language being used here removes agency from the labs
I frequently hear “agents are good at escaping sandboxes”
And not “labs test agents highly insecure environments to test agents in, resulting in huge externalities”
If Boeing missiles regularly misfired into major cities during the R&D process, no one would say “missiles are really good at accidentally misfiring”
The headline would definitely be “Boeing fails to safely develop missiles”
I frequently hear “agents are good at escaping sandboxes”
And not “labs test agents highly insecure environments to test agents in, resulting in huge externalities”
If Boeing missiles regularly misfired into major cities during the R&D process, no one would say “missiles are really good at accidentally misfiring”
The headline would definitely be “Boeing fails to safely develop missiles”
OpenAI and Anthropic are now investigating ***tens of thousands*** of incidents - not dozens.
"The total could grow well beyond tens of thousands."
"The incidents range in severity and are comparable to disclosures by OpenAI in recent days. They include both successful attempts d unsuccessful ones."
"The sheer number of incidents indicates that the problem is orders of magnitude more complex than what is publicly known."
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I remember that Uber (or Lyft?) used to do this at the airport in Portland, OR.
Ok @Uber - this is great, let’s do this at every US airport please
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
Bro, just lower your prices.
The reason less people go to McDonald’s is because no one wants to pay sit down restaurant prices for fast food.
The reason less people go to McDonald’s is because no one wants to pay sit down restaurant prices for fast food.
McDonald's announced they're investing $8,500,000,000 in their restaurants to try and make a comeback.
This includes implementing a lot more AI to automate tasks and new, healthy menu items like grilled chicken, egg bites and protein bowls.
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
The Head of Engineering when he sees PMs pushing vibe slop to production but also has a mortgage to pay
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Jaime Lopez retweeted
I was recently in the northeast and this old New York woman asked the tsa dude if it is a laptops in line or a laptops out line, and as they do he performative, exasperatedly went “it’s always laptops out,” and the old woman went “no it isn’t! Don’t gaslight us!”
This would make airport security lines 20% more efficient overnight
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