On Oct 1 the S&P500 closed at 7666 with 10yr yields at 5.24%. Today the S&P500 closed at 7663 with 10yr yields at 4.95%. Attributing the sharp yield moves of late to “risk-off” price action seems highly disingenuous - especially when the S&P500 sits a mere 1.5% below its record highs.
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Fun Facts from inside the Fortress of Finance:
- Over 70 million Trump accounts have been created, of which 60 million have been auto-enrolled. Over $8 billion have been deposited in these accounts since July 4th. With Musk’s announcement today, the total will rise to almost ~$19 billion at current SPCX prices.
- The Treasury and IRS issued proposed regulations for the implementation of the new Federal Scholarship Tax Credit. It is estimated that as many 2.2 million scholarships of up to $3,400 each year will be funded in this first ever federal tax credit for private K-12 education starting in January 2027.
- The OCC issued a bombshell report on debanking abuses during the Biden administration. The findings show that from 2020 to 2025 America’s nine largest banks actively pursued policies to deny or limit access to financial services based on the political or religious beliefs of their clients. The report examined over 100,000 complaints and over 50,000 internal bank records.
- In the Secretary’s statement to the IMF/World Bank he asked the Fund to sharpen its analysis of “the role non-market policies and practices and exchange rates play in driving external imbalances,” and he asked the Bank to “formally retire its prohibition on financing upstream gas and oil”.
- The somewhat hotter than expected core CPI and PPI numbers, the stronger retail sales/industrial production data, and the steady increase in energy prices over the past week have NOT created any major headwinds for either the stock or bond markets. The S&P500 is about 1.5% off its record high set back on Oct 6th. And the 10yr Treasury yield has fallen over 20bps from its cycle highs of 5.36% set back on Oct 7th.
- Over 70 million Trump accounts have been created, of which 60 million have been auto-enrolled. Over $8 billion have been deposited in these accounts since July 4th. With Musk’s announcement today, the total will rise to almost ~$19 billion at current SPCX prices.
- The Treasury and IRS issued proposed regulations for the implementation of the new Federal Scholarship Tax Credit. It is estimated that as many 2.2 million scholarships of up to $3,400 each year will be funded in this first ever federal tax credit for private K-12 education starting in January 2027.
- The OCC issued a bombshell report on debanking abuses during the Biden administration. The findings show that from 2020 to 2025 America’s nine largest banks actively pursued policies to deny or limit access to financial services based on the political or religious beliefs of their clients. The report examined over 100,000 complaints and over 50,000 internal bank records.
- In the Secretary’s statement to the IMF/World Bank he asked the Fund to sharpen its analysis of “the role non-market policies and practices and exchange rates play in driving external imbalances,” and he asked the Bank to “formally retire its prohibition on financing upstream gas and oil”.
- The somewhat hotter than expected core CPI and PPI numbers, the stronger retail sales/industrial production data, and the steady increase in energy prices over the past week have NOT created any major headwinds for either the stock or bond markets. The S&P500 is about 1.5% off its record high set back on Oct 6th. And the 10yr Treasury yield has fallen over 20bps from its cycle highs of 5.36% set back on Oct 7th.
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Some notable @IMFNews
forecasts from the past:
•The October 2008 WEO had world growth at 3%. The outcome was the first global contraction in post war history.
•The Spring 1997 WEO was upbeat on Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia. They all contracted sharply in 1998 – Indonesia by 13%!
•The October 2021 WEO had inflation returning to pre-pandemic ranges by mid-2022, right before the largest inflation shock in 4 decades.
•In the largest SBA in Fund history (~$57b), the 2018 program projected a growth rebound and sustainable debt levels. It all ended in default and economic collapse by 2020.
•In April 2022 the Fund projected the Russian economy would sink by 8.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. The actual decline in 2022 was around 1.5% and 2023 posted solid positive growth.
•In the May 2010 program for Greece, the projected GDP numbers were -4% in 2010 and -2.5% in 2011, followed by a return to positive growth. Instead real GDP fell 25% peak to trough.
@KGeorgieva
forecasts from the past:
•The October 2008 WEO had world growth at 3%. The outcome was the first global contraction in post war history.
•The Spring 1997 WEO was upbeat on Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia. They all contracted sharply in 1998 – Indonesia by 13%!
•The October 2021 WEO had inflation returning to pre-pandemic ranges by mid-2022, right before the largest inflation shock in 4 decades.
•In the largest SBA in Fund history (~$57b), the 2018 program projected a growth rebound and sustainable debt levels. It all ended in default and economic collapse by 2020.
•In April 2022 the Fund projected the Russian economy would sink by 8.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. The actual decline in 2022 was around 1.5% and 2023 posted solid positive growth.
•In the May 2010 program for Greece, the projected GDP numbers were -4% in 2010 and -2.5% in 2011, followed by a return to positive growth. Instead real GDP fell 25% peak to trough.
@KGeorgieva
U.S. Treasury dismisses IMF debt warning and 'messy' forecasting cnbc.com/2026/10/15/zer…
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The impressive OUTPERFORMANCE of the long end of the US Treasury market versus its global peers —>
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A beautiful day on the north lawn of the White House talking policy & markets with @SullyCNBC
youtu.be/v18PhfFiaPU?is…
youtu.be/v18PhfFiaPU?is…
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Some fun charts to support the statements by @SecScottBessent in the oval today on yields and inflation—>
youtu.be/nwVIpKNsps4?is… via @YouTube
Four key measures of core inflation have all been trending LOWER!!! And long-term inflation expectations have been remarkably STABLE!!!
youtu.be/nwVIpKNsps4?is… via @YouTube
Four key measures of core inflation have all been trending LOWER!!! And long-term inflation expectations have been remarkably STABLE!!!
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If for some crazy reason an individual does not want to accept the returns from a philanthropic gift of Treasury-approved stock in their Trump account, they can always withdraw the proceeds penalty-free at the age of 59½ and then donate the after-tax profits back to the American people. Here's a link on the US Treasury website to do just that: fiscal.treasury.gov/financing/gift….
Bottom line: Trump account holders are under no obligation to monetize and spend the gains from any investment gifted to them by a donor. Sadly, the administration could design a program to give kids more nutritious school lunches, and folks like @NickTimiraos and @greg_ip would complain about how it raises the risk of global warming or violates their cherished DEI principles.
Bottom line: Trump account holders are under no obligation to monetize and spend the gains from any investment gifted to them by a donor. Sadly, the administration could design a program to give kids more nutritious school lunches, and folks like @NickTimiraos and @greg_ip would complain about how it raises the risk of global warming or violates their cherished DEI principles.
"The initial rollout of the program encouraged children to be invested broadly in American companies. The latest shift ties kids’ wealth building directly to the fate of particular companies, depending on who donates."
"Under the rules that took effect last week, charities controlled by wealthy people—with Treasury Department approval—can put individual stocks into the accounts of thousands or millions of children. They can target groups of at least 5,000, sorted by age, geography or both."
via @RichardRubinDC @ashleaebeling
wsj.com/politics/polic…
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It’s particularly surprising that someone like @greg_ip, who has written frequently about wealth inequality in the past, would create out-of-touch hypotheticals like this. President Trump is the first president in our country’s history to pave a way for every American to be invested in the stock market. Trump Account philanthropists are motivated by a desire to help American children jump-start their financial future.
1/ Mind blowing story about Trump accounts by @RichardRubinDC & @ashleaebeling. Under Treasury's new rules, a company can donate stock to a child's Trump account; parents can’t pick the stocks, reject donated shares, or sell for 5 years. Some possible implications...
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Yesterday on the north lawn…
DAVID ZERVOS: The Trump administration’s pro-business policies, combined with an enormous amount of investment, are driving what looks like a major productivity boom.
@DavidZervosDC
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In the @ftopinion article below, @martinwolf_ claims that the average maturity of US Treasury issuance decreased from 6.1 years in 2024 to 2.5 years in 2026. He should check his math. The 2024 figure appears to entirely exclude bill issuance in that year, whereas bill issuance is fully included for 2026. In effect, he is comparing apples to broccoli.
The truth is that the WAM of all outstanding debt has barely changed between 2024 and today (5.9 vs 5.8 years). The Treasury regularly publishes a wide range of portfolio metrics in order to provide market participants with an accurate picture of the debt maturity structure. @FT writers should consult these data before publishing claims that mislead its readers.
The truth is that the WAM of all outstanding debt has barely changed between 2024 and today (5.9 vs 5.8 years). The Treasury regularly publishes a wide range of portfolio metrics in order to provide market participants with an accurate picture of the debt maturity structure. @FT writers should consult these data before publishing claims that mislead its readers.
Is the world really drowning in debt? — Martin Wolf ft.trib.al/GZEwGET
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Love the quote the producers used to headline this interview link!!! So true!!!
"I just think those traditional overheating demand-side discussions are overblown."
David Zervos, newly appointed Counselor to the Treasury Secretary, delivers his outlook for the U.S. economy:
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/…
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First interview as @DavidZervosDC — live from “Pebble Beach” on the north lawn of the White House with my longtime friends and family at @CNBC. I wouldn’t want to start this media adventure with anyone else!!! @SaraEisen @carlquintanilla
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Honored to begin serving as Counselor to @SecScottBessent - There is no better place to start than under Hamilton's watchful eye. Grateful for the trust. Let's get to work. 🇺🇸
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Oil is currently THE high frequency driver of 10yr yields. Don’t let the Fed headlines fool you!!
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David Zervos retweeted
“How much does the Fed matter to macro markets right now?” asks @SullyCNBC.
“I just don’t think this matters that much,” says @jefmacrostrat. “The drivers of the macro are really not focused in on the Federal Reserve.”
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/…
“I just don’t think this matters that much,” says @jefmacrostrat. “The drivers of the macro are really not focused in on the Federal Reserve.”
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/…
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David Zervos retweeted
"It's about as positive a story that you could associate with higher yields as any story possible."
@Jefferies chief market strategist @jefmacrostrat thinks long-term investors should get involved in the bond market at current levels:
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/…
@Jefferies chief market strategist @jefmacrostrat thinks long-term investors should get involved in the bond market at current levels:
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/…
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David Zervos retweeted
What was missing from Warsh's speech, according to Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos.
@Jefferies @jefmacrostrat
cnb.cx/4x0rdFt
@Jefferies @jefmacrostrat
cnb.cx/4x0rdFt
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David Zervos retweeted
Jefferies' David Zervos on Treasury's bond buybacks: "I think it's quite shocking to see how many of my competitors and colleagues are negative on this"
cnbc.com/video/2026/08/…
cnbc.com/video/2026/08/…
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