@BoringBiz_ 正是我在2023年全仓买入英伟达的原因，而且直到去年中旬几乎全仓 AI 基建相关股票，但让我意识到这些漏洞的正是这些传统的所谓金融思维，AI 实验室拥有离谱的高估值，他们没有任何足够的护城河，大模型之间并没有本质区别，让他们获得足够的净利润和现金流来支撑当前的估值，因此整个下游都要进行重估
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Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Listening to the earnings call knowing that it will determine how attractive my future wife will be
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Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Not an investment advice. Look into Skyworks, Global Foundries, Qualcomm, Universal Display, NXP. Given excessive selling, I believe better price points are possible.
@Omercheema Could you tell Which are they?
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@TobyAtLarge 那场辩论印象最深刻的场面是，希拉里说我很高兴这个国家的司法体系没有掌握在特朗普手中。特朗普说，Yeah, because you'll be in jail
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Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Life should be lived like EBITDA adjustments
It should always be positive, and sometimes, completely delusional
It should always be positive, and sometimes, completely delusional
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@fromthreebody @elonmusk @ViktorDefi This is an excellent example of right wing, Voluntarily give your own stuff to others, unlike left wing demand other people stuff to give, while keep most to themselves
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@ssslumdunk 所以要一步步往上，先买手机，下一年买平板，然后再换个好点的耳机，再换个好点的电视，永远提高阈值，永远获得快乐
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Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Paul McCartney es tan grande como compositor que a veces pasa de largo que es uno de los vocalistas mas grandes y versátiles que dio la humanidad.
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Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Chinese bride gifts her partner a flagship GPU at wedding — he breaks down in tears
She handed him an ASUS ROG Astral RTX 5090 that costs around $12,000
She handed him an ASUS ROG Astral RTX 5090 that costs around $12,000
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@Omercheema Never liked this Jukan kid. all of his popularity are built on him passing along a few Korean third-rate media outlets that others have a hard time digging up. Thoroughly anti-Qcom and anti-consumer electronics (even he's the opposite of his boss), and endlessly overvalues memory
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Compartk 𝕏/🚀🧬🇱🇮 retweeted
Jukan,
I have no doubt that AI will change the world in unimaginable ways in the next two decades. Completely bullish on it.
But short term (2-3 years) is much more uncertain. Anything can happen.
Most plausable downside scenario: Whole semiconductor market is relying on the success of OpenAI and Anthropic. And the success means a trillion dollar revenue for these companies within 3 years. That means OpenAI and Anthropic cracking several markets beyond automatic coding and AI assistants. That's an extremely steep hill to climb.
Boomers might not be completely out of their mind. May be GenZ and Millenials are being naive. Time will tell.
I have no doubt that AI will change the world in unimaginable ways in the next two decades. Completely bullish on it.
But short term (2-3 years) is much more uncertain. Anything can happen.
Most plausable downside scenario: Whole semiconductor market is relying on the success of OpenAI and Anthropic. And the success means a trillion dollar revenue for these companies within 3 years. That means OpenAI and Anthropic cracking several markets beyond automatic coding and AI assistants. That's an extremely steep hill to climb.
Boomers might not be completely out of their mind. May be GenZ and Millenials are being naive. Time will tell.
Thoughts on memory:
Anyone who thinks compute will stay in shortage while memory slides into oversupply must be smoking something. Compute and memory are destined to tighten together or deflate together. One cannot die while the other survives.
By the same logic, the pods shorting memory and going long HDD are out of their minds. How do you think HDD isn't joined at the hip with memory? You really think HDD stays safe if this cycle rolls over?
In the end, all of this comes down to nobody having conviction about what happens after 2027. Historically, we have watched P peak one to two quarters before supply ramps, then Q expands and the entire profit pool collapses. But everyone forgets that this cycle runs on nonstandard products, unlike PCs, smartphones, and general purpose servers, and that it was triggered by factors different from past cycles.
This is because of the boomers who still see memory as an industry where you make a killing in the upcycle and lose your shirt in the downcycle. These self proclaimed veterans view memory through the lens of their past experience, and since they drive the market and set the stock prices, memory trades at such a low valuation. What I keep saying is that a sharp collapse like in the past is impossible. A gradual decline is possible. But even if Samsung and SK Hynix margins were cut in half from current levels, they would still trade at a P/E in the teens. That is still roughly half of HDD valuations.
Personally, I think that as memory prices fall, other sources of demand will absorb the supply at each step down. In particular, I expect personal AI demand, led by local AI, to emerge. Looked at another way, for local AI to take off, the hyperscaler driven spike in memory prices has to be brought under control. At current memory prices, local AI can never diversify.
Just as mainframes gave way to PCs and the cloud gave way to smartphones, each time carrying the cycle from P into a Q expansion phase, I think this AI cycle will also move from frontier labs to local open source AI. Based on these historical precedents, I believe local AI will take over the memory cycle from the frontier labs and carry memory demand.
I am not saying memory prices will hold for more than a decade. Memory P will fall at some point. But what is different from the past is that new consumer devices and new consumer demand, such as open source driven local AI, will support the floor for memory.
So the market right now keeps discounting these stocks out of fear of a memory peak nobody can time. This discount is being driven by boomer investors who dismiss the idea that AI supports the downside and keep pushing the view that earnings will collapse and the trough will revert to past levels too. My point is that this is completely wrong.
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