πŸ₯Š Welterweight Bout: Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Joaquin Buckley (21-8)
πŸ“ Murcielago MMA
πŸ“ 5'8" | Age: 32
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Sean Brady (Decision, May 2026)
🧨 15 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,755 (Great, #29 WW)

15 of his 21 wins are by KO/TKO, and he's faced the toughest slate on the card (1,737 avg opponent ELO). But back-to-back decision losses to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady came on the mat. Five rounds on the feet is his path.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Mike Malott (14-2-1)
πŸ“ Team Alpha Male
πŸ“ 6'1" | Age: 34
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Gilbert Burns (TKO, Apr 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 2 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,762 (Great, #26 WW)

Four straight wins, capped by a TKO of Gilbert Burns in April. 12 of 14 wins are finishes, split evenly between KO and submission, and he's fighting at home in Canada.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Malott 55%, close to the market's ~57% (-135). A 7-point ELO gap, the tightest on the card: this one is a genuine coin flip with a slight lean to the home fighter.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/joaquin-…
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πŸ₯Š Women's Flyweight Bout: Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Erin Blanchfield (14-2)
πŸ“ Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
πŸ“ 5'4" | Age: 27
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Tracy Cortez (Submission, Nov 2025)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,767 (Great, #4 WFLW)

Highest-rated fighter on the card at a career-high 1,767. Elite grappler coming off a submission of Tracy Cortez; this bout was moved from UFC 330 after she got hurt, so it's her first fight in 11 months.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4)
πŸ“ Niagara Top Team
πŸ“ 5'7" | Age: 37
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Karine Silva (Decision, Apr 2026)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 9 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,719 (Good, #11 WFLW)

The 37-year-old home fighter won her last one on the cards over Karine Silva, and 9 of her 15 wins went the distance. She has to keep it standing and make Blanchfield work for 15 minutes.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Blanchfield 71%, a touch below the market's ~77% (-340). A 48-point ELO edge and a big grappling advantage, but the model gives Jasudavicius a better shot than Vegas does.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/erin-bla…
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πŸ₯Š Lightweight Bout: Kyle Nelson vs Cristian PΓ©rez

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Kyle Nelson (17-7-1)
πŸ“ House of Champions MMA
πŸ“ 5'11" | Age: 35
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Terrance McKinney (TKO, Mar 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 7 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,670 (Good, #121 LW)

Coming off a TKO loss to Terrance McKinney in March. 10 of his 17 wins are finishes, and he's been fighting the tougher competition (1,672 avg opponent ELO vs PΓ©rez's 1,533).

πŸ‡²πŸ‡½ Cristian PΓ©rez (15-2)
πŸ“ Victory Fight Club
πŸ“ 5'9" | Age: 27
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Logan Paxton (TKO, Aug 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,705 (Good, #66 LW)

Two straight wins, the latest a TKO of Logan Paxton in August. 12 of 15 wins inside the distance (80% finish rate) at 27 years old.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives PΓ©rez 64% β€” the market is far more confident at ~77% (-340). ELO gap is only 35 points, and the model sees Nelson's tougher rΓ©sumΓ© as a live path.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/kyle-nel…
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πŸ₯Š Middleweight Bout: Marc-AndrΓ© Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Marc-AndrΓ© Barriault (17-11)
πŸ“ Kill Cliff FC
πŸ“ 6'1" | Age: 36
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs MichaΕ‚ Oleksiejczuk (Decision, Feb 2026)
🧨 11 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,638 (Solid, #114 MW)

Lost four of his last five, most recently a decision to MichaΕ‚ Oleksiejczuk in February. 11 of 17 wins by KO/TKO: the right hand is still the way out.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Kyle Daukaus (17-5)
πŸ“ Martinez BJJ
πŸ“ 6'3" | Age: 33
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Bo Nickal (TKO, Jun 2026)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 12 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,716 (Good, #42 MW)

12 of his 17 wins are by submission. Coming off a TKO loss to Bo Nickal in June that snapped a four-fight win streak.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Daukaus 76%, even stronger than the market's ~67% (-205). A 78-point ELO edge, and Barriault's ELO has slid from a 1,694 peak.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/marc-and…
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πŸ₯Š Bantamweight Bout: Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Louis Jourdain (9-3)
πŸ“ BTT Canada
πŸ“ 5'9" | Age: 30
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Magno Dias (Submission, Sep 2025)
🧨 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,609 (Solid, #192 BW)

Riding a four-fight win streak, the latest a submission of Magno Dias in Sep 2025. More than a year out of the cage, and he's ranked #192 at bantamweight on ELO.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Timmy Cuamba (10-4)
πŸ“ Xtreme Couture
πŸ“ 5'8" | Age: 27
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Benardo Sopaj (Submission, May 2026)
🧨 5 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,654 (Good, #119 BW)

Coming off a submission loss to Benardo Sopaj in May. All 10 wins are by KO/TKO or decision (five each) β€” his edge is on the feet.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: the biggest model-vs-market split on the card. Model gives Cuamba 77%; Vegas has him as the underdog (+142, ~41%). Cuamba holds a 45-point ELO edge and has faced tougher opposition (1,600 vs 1,511 avg opponent ELO).

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/louis-jo…
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πŸ₯Š Lightweight Bout: Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Mandel Nallo (14-4)
πŸ“ Tristar Gym
πŸ“ 6'0" | Age: 37
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Jai Herbert (TKO, Apr 2026)
🧨 8 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 0 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,634 (Solid, #202 LW)

Every one of his 14 wins is a finish: 8 KO/TKO, 6 submissions. He was hurting Jai Herbert before getting caught by TKO in April.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Nate Landwehr (18-8)
πŸ“ MMA Masters
πŸ“ 5'9" | Age: 38
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Cub Swanson (TKO, Apr 2026)
🧨 9 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 7 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,648 (Solid, #159 FW)

Three straight losses, the latest a TKO by Cub Swanson in April, and his ELO is down from a 1,705 peak. He's fighting at lightweight tonight after a career at featherweight.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model calls it a 51/49 coin flip on Nallo, while the market has him at ~74% (-285). ELO alone actually leans Landwehr (52%), who's faced far tougher competition (1,677 vs 1,525 avg opponent ELO).

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/mandel-n…
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πŸ₯Š Heavyweight Bout: Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Tanner Boser (22-11-1)
πŸ“ Shaved Bears MMA
πŸ“ 6'2" | Age: 35
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Gokhan Saricam (TKO, Apr 2026)
🧨 12 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 8 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,658 (Good, #65 HW)

34-fight veteran with 12 KO/TKO wins. Lost three of his last five, most recently a TKO by Gokhan Saricam in April.

πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Jhonata Diniz (9-2)
πŸ“ Santa Fe Team
πŸ“ 6'4" | Age: 35
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Mario Pinto (TKO, Oct 2025)
🧨 7 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,672 (Good, #53 HW)

6'4" with 7 of 9 wins by KO/TKO. Back-to-back losses, the last a TKO by Mario Pinto in Oct 2025, and this is his first fight in a year.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Diniz 58% β€” below the market's ~69% (-218). Just 14 ELO points apart, so the model sees more of a fight here than Vegas does.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/tanner-b…
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πŸ₯Š Middleweight Bout: Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Julien Leblanc (10-3)
πŸ“ Patenaude Martial Arts
πŸ“ 6'2" | Age: 34
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Robert Valentin (Submission, Apr 2026)
🧨 4 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 2 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,619 (Solid, #137 MW)

A submission loss to Robert Valentin in April snapped a four-fight win streak. 8 of his 10 wins are finishes.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Nick Galanti (8-1)
πŸ“ Dante Rivera BJJ
πŸ“ 6'1" | Age: 28
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Carlos Petruzzella (KO, Aug 2026)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 2 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,686 (Good, #71 MW)

A late replacement on a six-fight win streak, the latest a KO of Carlos Petruzzella in August. Half his eight wins are by submission.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Galanti 83%, roughly in line with the market's ~88% (-700). A 67-point ELO edge plus the momentum.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/julien-l…
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πŸ₯Š Heavyweight Bout: Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Javad Mahjoub (5-0)
πŸ“ Alavanca Calgary
πŸ“ 6'1" | Age: 35
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Pietro Gentile (Submission, Feb 2026)
🧨 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,613 (Solid, #99 HW)

Unbeaten at 5-0 out of Alavanca Calgary, the latest a submission of Pietro Gentile in February. 4 of 5 wins are finishes.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Joel Faglier (6-0)
πŸ“ Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts
πŸ“ 6'2" | Age: 25
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Cody East (Decision, Feb 2026)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,635 (Solid, #80 HW)

Unbeaten at 6-0 at just 25, stepping in for Louie Sutherland. Took a decision over Cody East in February; 5 of 6 wins are finishes. He weighed in at 261 to Mahjoub's 252.5.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Faglier 62%, more confident than the market's ~55% (-122). Two unbeaten heavyweights, and someone's zero has to go.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/javad-ma…
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πŸ₯Š Women's Flyweight Bout: Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Katlyn Cerminara (18-6)
πŸ“ Team Renzo Gracie
πŸ“ 5'9" | Age: 37
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Maycee Barber (Decision, Mar 2024)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 15 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,704 (Good)

Her first fight since March 2024, a decision loss to Maycee Barber. 15 of her 18 wins came on the cards.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Mackenzie Stiller (6-1)
πŸ“ One Touch Fight Team
πŸ“ 5'2" | Age: 27
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Kendra McIntyre (Submission, Feb 2026)
🧨 0 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 1 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,611 (Solid, #56 WSW)

A late replacement for the injured Jamey-Lyn Horth, moving up from strawweight on a three-fight win streak. 5 of her 6 wins are by submission.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Cerminara 59%, below the market's ~71% (-245). It's the biggest ELO gap on the card (93 points), but the model isn't nearly as sure as Vegas after a 31-month layoff.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/katlyn-c…
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πŸ₯Š Bantamweight Bout: Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Chad Anheliger (13-8)
πŸ“ Champion's Creed MMA
πŸ“ 5'6" | Age: 39
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Cody Gibson (Decision, Nov 2024)
🧨 7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,632 (Solid, #176 BW)

The 39-year-old's first fight since a decision loss to Cody Gibson in Nov 2024. 7 of his 13 wins are by KO/TKO.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Steven Koslow (6-1)
πŸ“ 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Jacksonville
πŸ“ 5'7" | Age: 29
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Cameron Saaiman (TKO, Dec 2022)
🧨 0 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 0 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,602 (Solid)

Back after almost four years away, since a TKO loss to Cameron Saaiman in Dec 2022. All six of his wins are by submission.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Koslow 62%, right on the market's ~62% (-166). ELO alone actually leans Anheliger (54%). Two long layoffs make this one hard to read.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/chad-anh…
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πŸ₯Š Women's Bantamweight Bout: Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Melissa Croden (8-3)
πŸ“ Raven House MMA
πŸ“ 5'10" | Age: 35
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Darya Zheleznyakova (Decision, Apr 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,622 (Solid, #22 WBW)

Home favorite coming off a decision over Darya Zheleznyakova in April. 6 of her 8 wins are by KO/TKO.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Chelsea Chandler (7-4)
πŸ“ Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
πŸ“ 5'8" | Age: 32
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Priscila Cachoeira (Submission, Jun 2026)
🧨 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,585 (Solid, #39 WBW)

Submitted Priscila Cachoeira in June. Owns the lowest ELO on the card (1,585), but she's faced the tougher slate (1,572 vs 1,538 avg opponent ELO).

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Croden 58%, well below the market's ~71% (-240). A 37-point ELO edge, but the model sees a closer fight than Vegas.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/melissa-…
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πŸ₯Š Bantamweight Bout: Cody Chovancek vs Su Young You

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Cody Chovancek (9-0)
πŸ“ Niagara Top Team
πŸ“ 5'8" | Age: 28
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Raphael Uchegbu (TKO, Sep 2025)
🧨 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,700 (Good, #54 BW)

Unbeaten at 9-0, the longest win streak on the card. Last time out he stopped Raphael Uchegbu in Sep 2025, so this is his first fight in 13 months.

πŸ‡°πŸ‡· Su Young You (16-4)
πŸ“ Bon Jiu Jitsu
πŸ“ 5'6" | Age: 30
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Elijah Smith (Submission, Mar 2026)
🧨 3 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 8 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,692 (Good, #62 BW)

A submission loss to Elijah Smith in March snapped a four-fight win streak. Has faced much tougher opposition (1,595 vs 1,527 avg opponent ELO).

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: the model picks against the favorite: it gives You 52%, while Vegas has Chovancek at ~57% (-130). ELO alone leans Chovancek (51%), so the model is backing You's tougher rΓ©sumΓ©.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/cody-cho…
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πŸ₯Š UFC FIGHT NIGHT: BUCKLEY vs MALOTT
πŸ“ Rogers Place, Edmonton
πŸ“Ί Paramount+
πŸ—“οΈ Tonight, Saturday October 17

⏰ START TIMES (ET / CT / MT / PT)
Prelims β€” 5:00 / 4:00 / 3:00 / 2:00 PM
Main Card β€” 8:00 / 7:00 / 6:00 / 5:00 PM

🌍 UK β€” 10:00 PM / 1:00 AM BST
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί AUS β€” 8:00 / 11:00 AM AEDT (Sun)

πŸ”₯ WHAT TO WATCH

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott headlines for five rounds, and it's the tightest ELO matchup on the card: 1,755 vs 1,762. Buckley needs to stop a two-fight skid; Malott is on a four-fight run after stopping Gilbert Burns and fights at home.

Erin Blanchfield, the highest-rated fighter in the building (1,767, #4 WFLW), returns after 11 months against Canada's Jasmine Jasudavicius. A big win puts her back in the title picture.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: our model and Vegas split by double digits on 5 fights tonight. The widest gap is Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba: the model has Cuamba at 77% while the market makes him the underdog.

Full card, ELO ratings and every prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/event/ufc-figh…
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πŸ₯Š Middleweight Bout: Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Brendan Allen (27-7)
πŸ“ Kill Cliff FC
πŸ“ 6'2" | Age: 30
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Edmen Shahbazyan (Decision, Jun 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 14 SUB, 7 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,819 (Great, #5 MW)

Highest-rated fighter on the card at a career-high 1,819, riding a 3-fight win streak. 14 of his 27 wins are submissions, built against the toughest slate on the card (1,736 avg opponent ELO).

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2)
πŸ“ Range Martial Arts Academy
πŸ“ 6'2" | Age: 31
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Jared Cannonier (Decision, Jul 2026)
🧨 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,769 (Great, #14 MW)

5-fight win streak, including Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. 10 of 15 wins by KO/TKO: he wants this standing, Allen wants it on the mat.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Duncan 52%, against the market, which has Allen as the ~55% favorite (-120). ELO alone leans Allen (57%); the model swings it to the Brit on a 5-fight streak.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/brendan-…
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πŸ₯Š Lightweight Bout: Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert

πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Matheus Camilo (11-3)
πŸ“ Xtreme Couture
πŸ“ 5'10" | Age: 25
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Nazim Sadykhov (TKO, Jun 2026)
🧨 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 4 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,658 (Good, #143 LW)

25 and at a career-high ELO after stopping Nazim Sadykhov (+23). Gives up three inches of height, so he has to close the distance and set the pace.

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Jai Herbert (14-6-1)
πŸ“ Renegade Jiu Jitsu
πŸ“ 6'1" | Age: 38
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Mandel Nallo (TKO, Apr 2026)
🧨 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,675 (Good, #108 LW)

10 of 14 wins by KO/TKO and a 79% finish rate. At 38 he brings the much tougher rΓ©sumΓ© (1,672 avg opponent ELO vs Camilo's 1,545); length and power are his path.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Camilo 59%, a bit shy of the market's ~66% (-192). ELO alone actually leans Herbert (52%); the model sees the fight tilting to the 25-year-old.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/matheus-…
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πŸ₯Š Women's Strawweight Bout: Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

πŸ‡²πŸ‡½ Lupita Godinez (14-6)
πŸ“ Lobo Gym MMA
πŸ“ 5'2" | Age: 33
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Tatiana Suarez (Submission, Apr 2026)
🧨 1 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 11 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,667 (Good, #21 WSW)

A pure grinder: 11 of 14 wins on the scorecards and the lowest finish rate on the card (21%). Coming off a submission loss to Tatiana Suarez, she needs 15 minutes of volume and takedowns.

πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Ketlen Souza (17-6)
πŸ“ Carioca Academy
πŸ“ 5'2" | Age: 32
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Win vs Ariane Carnelossi (KO, Jun 2026)
🧨 9 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 6 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,651 (Good, #29 WSW)

Back-to-back wins, the last a KO of Ariane Carnelossi, and 9 of 17 wins by KO/TKO. Her path is landing something heavy before the grind sets in.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Godinez 55%, well short of the market's ~70% (-238). Vegas sees a mismatch; the model sees a near coin flip.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/lupita-g…
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πŸ₯Š Featherweight Bout: Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Andre Fili (25-14)
πŸ“ Team Alpha Male
πŸ“ 5'10" | Age: 36
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Vinicius Oliveira (TKO, Jun 2026)
🧨 10 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 12 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,635 (Solid, #178 FW)

Second-toughest slate on the card (1,692 avg opponent ELO), but three losses in his last five have dropped him from a 1,668 peak. Needs his three-inch height edge to keep Kamaka at range.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1)
πŸ“ Xtreme Couture
πŸ“ 5'7" | Age: 31
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Luke Riley (TKO, Jul 2026)
🧨 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 14 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,660 (Good, #138 FW)

14 of 18 wins on the scorecards, coming off a TKO loss to Luke Riley. His path is pace and pressure over 15 minutes.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model takes Kamaka at 60%, as the betting underdog. The market has Fili at ~59% (-142). That's a 19-point split, the widest on the card.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/andre-fi…
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217
πŸ₯Š Bantamweight Bout: Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Malcolm Wellmaker (10-2)
πŸ“ Faglier's MMA
πŸ“ 5'9" | Age: 32
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Juan DΓ­az (Submission, May 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,680 (Good, #88 BW)

Two straight losses, the latest a submission by Juan DΓ­az in May; ELO is down from a 1,718 peak. The power is still real: 6 KOs among 10 wins, 80% finish rate.

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡ͺ Otari Tanzilovi (10-2)
πŸ“ Guram Fight Club
πŸ“ 5'9" | Age: 28
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Shane Collins (Decision, Jun 2026)
🧨 7 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,627 (Solid, #192 FW)

Rated at featherweight and also coming off a decision loss. 7 of 10 wins by KO/TKO, so this is two finishers.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Wellmaker just 52%, the closest call on the card, while the market has him at ~69% (-225). A 17-point gap.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/malcolm-…
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πŸ₯Š Light Heavyweight Bout: Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Julius Walker (7-3)
πŸ“ Team Fusion
πŸ“ 6'4" | Age: 27
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (KO, Jun 2026)
🧨 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,600 (Solid, #107 LHW)

86% finish rate, but two straight losses, the last a KO by Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev. Three inches taller and 11 years younger than his opponent.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Gerald Meerschaert (37-22)
πŸ“ Kill Cliff FC
πŸ“ 6'1" | Age: 38
πŸ—“οΈ Last: Loss vs Jacob Malkoun (Decision, May 2026)
🧨 6 KO/TKO, 29 SUB, 2 DEC
πŸ“Š Combat Edge ELO: 1,650 (Good, #107 MW)

38, the oldest fighter on the card, and on a 5-fight losing streak. But 29 of his 37 wins are submissions; one scramble is all he needs.

πŸ“ˆ The Combat Edge read: model gives Walker 73%, right in line with the market's ~75% (-305). ELO alone actually leans Meerschaert (57%); the model swings 30 points to the younger man.

Full breakdown + prediction πŸ‘‡
combat-edge.com/fight/julius-w…
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