Pinned Tweet
>Conservatives win an election
>Leftists appeal to the Constitution, the Rule of Law, Christianity, and the Founding Fathers to ensure that Conservatives never act against them
>Leftists win the next election
>They immediately discard all of these principles and begin ruthlessly imposing they go way too far, lose the following election, and instantly go back to appealing to the Constitution
>Conservatives: "The Constitution, huh? Why do you keep using that word?"
>Leftists:
>Leftists appeal to the Constitution, the Rule of Law, Christianity, and the Founding Fathers to ensure that Conservatives never act against them
>Leftists win the next election
>They immediately discard all of these principles and begin ruthlessly imposing they go way too far, lose the following election, and instantly go back to appealing to the Constitution
>Conservatives: "The Constitution, huh? Why do you keep using that word?"
>Leftists:
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Just landed in my childhood home of the great State of Texas, where in about 48 hours I will be covering the midterm results live as they come in.
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When I was growing up, my father would always tell me, "If you never give up, you can’t lose. You might run out of time, but you only lose when you quit."
He meant it in the context of sports and pursuing your career goals, but it applies to politics too.
Maybe we will run out of time. Maybe we already have. But that isn't for us to decide. The only thing we have control over is whether or not we give up.
And make no mistake, declaring that we've already run out of time IS a form of giving up.
It's just a way to give up while status-signaling that you’re so much more intelligent or moral than others, even as you throw in the towel.
He meant it in the context of sports and pursuing your career goals, but it applies to politics too.
Maybe we will run out of time. Maybe we already have. But that isn't for us to decide. The only thing we have control over is whether or not we give up.
And make no mistake, declaring that we've already run out of time IS a form of giving up.
It's just a way to give up while status-signaling that you’re so much more intelligent or moral than others, even as you throw in the towel.
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James Lindsay is now feuding with the man who successfully ran Dave Brat’s insurgent Tea Party campaign against House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014.
Brat’s shocking defeat of Cantor (who spent more money on steak dinners than he did on the entire primary) essentially of Donald Trump a year later.
The only argument you could make that Zach isn’t a conservative is that the word isn’t strong enough.
Brat’s shocking defeat of Cantor (who spent more money on steak dinners than he did on the entire primary) essentially of Donald Trump a year later.
The only argument you could make that Zach isn’t a conservative is that the word isn’t strong enough.
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A political movement’s electoral defeat is not the same thing as a defeat of the forces that produced it.
And the inverse is just as true. The electoral victory of a political party doesn’t mean the order it supports has been fully restored.
And the inverse is just as true. The electoral victory of a political party doesn’t mean the order it supports has been fully restored.
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This might just be the most insane freeze frame I’ve ever seen.
I’ve got half my family living here. I’m pretty sure I’ve been down this very street before too (it looks like South Military Trail).
Crazy to think this just happened.
I’ve got half my family living here. I’m pretty sure I’ve been down this very street before too (it looks like South Military Trail).
Crazy to think this just happened.
WATCH: New video shows Learjet 60 business jet crashing near West Palm Beach, Florida.
The plane was completely disintegrated upon impact. Number of casualties unknown.
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"Sorry Anakin, but Darth Revan is the reason why you're no longer allowed to have a planet of your own."
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We’re almost certainly winning Florida still this year because the voter registration edge is now so strong, but this is a huge break in a trend that went back years.
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Christian Crystal Ball Early Voting Model for Virginia as of 10/31:
🔵Dems - 67.68%
🔴GOP - 32.31%
On this day in 2025:
🔵Dems - 65.05%
🔴GOP - 34.94%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 58.66%
🔴GOP - 41.34%
🔵Dems - 67.68%
🔴GOP - 32.31%
On this day in 2025:
🔵Dems - 65.05%
🔴GOP - 34.94%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 58.66%
🔴GOP - 41.34%
I'm hearing a lot of talk about Republicans having a great day at the polls over the last few days, but we need to look at the context here before we start to truly celebrate.
Remember, this happens every cycle, and much like the rock-bottom EV turnout in VA-3 (the blackest district in the state) we see every year, it's easy to assume this means more than it actually does.
So here's how the EV cycle usually plays out in VA.
Republicans start off strong and eat into the Dem margin in a big way. This crests, then reverses as Democrats flood the state with mail ballots and satellite voting locations open up in NOVA. That marks the first act of Virginia's early voting story every election cycle.
The second act begins with Dems running into diminishing returns. Republicans then get into gear down the home stretch, steadily chipping away at the Dem advantage once more until the Monday before the election, when the third and final act takes place: one last mail dump that shifts the EV a point or two back toward the Left.
In short, it's a constant tug of war, and we're in the phase right now where, historically, Republicans are gaining on the Democrats, just like they did in 2024 and in 2025.
Now whether this tilts the election one way or another is a different matter entirely. One could look at this trend in 2024 and conclude (accurately) that while Trump was going to lose Virginia, the trend was so strong towards the GOP that he was almost certainly going to win the Presidential election. Likewise, one could look at this same play unfold in 2025 and conclude that Democrats had not only parried the GOP phases of the EV play that we were heading for a blue tsunami, which is precisely what happened.
So where does that leave us today?
Well, Republicans have certainly gained on Democrats, as one would expect from where we currently are in the cycle. But the data isn't really pointing to anything beyond the ordinary.
The good news is that the Dem advantage in early voting compared to this time in 2024 has shrunk from 18.79 to 17.59 points to the Left, but the gap compared to 2025 has actually GROWN from 3.92 to 5.84 points to the Left.
The silver lining is that these numbers do not include all of today's turnout. We have heard very good news regarding today's performance in particular, and hopefully it will show up in the full data on Sunday or at least Monday at the latest. What we need to be looking for is closing the gap vs 2025.
It's probably a bridge too far at this point to narrow the margin below what we saw in 2025, but perhaps it'll be enough to save VA-5 and VA-1.
Christian Crystal Ball Early Voting Model for Virginia as of 10/30:
🔵Dems - 67.50%
🔴GOP - 32.49%
On this day in 2025:
🔵Dems - 64.58%
🔴GOP - 35.41%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 58.71%
🔴GOP - 41.29%
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"It was said that you would imagine if the roles were reversed, not reverse them yourself!"
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10K likes and over 700K impressions on a post about the political theology of Star Wars.
A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one.
A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one.
The Jedi actually deserved to go extinct. Their entire ideology is inherently antithetical to life itself.
You’re not allowed to have attachments, show emotion, love anyone, be passionate about anything, or embody really any of the qualities that make a sentient living being a
Anything that’s life giving is attacked for being associated with the Sith, who would otherwise be completely correct about everything if it weren’t for their over the top cruelty and cartoonish villainy.
The entire core tenets of the Jedi Order almost perfectly match the late-stage liberal fantasy of a world where existential divisions are all papered over and everyone and everything is forcibly dissolved into a universalist soup managed by a supposedly apolitical priestly caste who wield absolute power while lying through their teeth about how they’re just defenders of democracy.
And like all Liberal orders, the Jedi are so dogmatically committed to the false promise of universalism, neutrality, proceduralism, and “balance” (aka not taking your own side) that they can’t see any existential threats until it is far too late.
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Reminder that the election is not yet over.
We still have this thing called "Election Day" where you get a chance to deliver total patriot victory and crush these people who hate you rather than rewarding them with your apathy.
We still have this thing called "Election Day" where you get a chance to deliver total patriot victory and crush these people who hate you rather than rewarding them with your apathy.
Liberals are trying to stop you from voting for Trump for the 11th time. Rebel against them by voting Straight Ticket Republican
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I want to stress that this is early voting only, not a projection of the final result.
Texas Early Voting as of 10/30:
🔵Dems - 40.39%
⚪️Swing - 22.59%
🔴GOP - 37.03%
>🔵D+3.36%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 35.75%
⚪️Swing - 23.55%
🔴GOP - 40.69%
>🔴R+4.94%
On this day in 2022:
🔵Dems - 38.68%
⚪️Swing - 15.96%
🔴GOP - 45.36%
>🔴R+6.68%
On this day in 2020:
🔵Dems - 38.44%
⚪️Swing - 21.52%
🔴GOP - 40.04%
>🔴R+1.59%
On this day in 2018:
🔵Dems - 40.57%
⚪️Swing - 15.29%
🔴GOP - 44.14%
>🔴R+3.57%
"But wait, Trump ultimately did far better in 2024 than he did in 2020 or even compared to Abbott in 2022!"
Yes he did. His landslide victory was driven by swing voters who broke overwhelmingly for him. And fortunately for us, we have the benefit of hindsight as to how swing voters broke in the past.
How Swing Voters Broke in 2024
🔴 GOP - 67.78%
🔵 Dems - 32.22%
>🔴R+35.56!!!
How Swing Voters Broke in 2022
🔴 GOP - 56.08%
🔵 Dems - 43.92%
>🔴R+12.17
How Swing Voters Broke in 2020
🔴 GOP - 54.08%
🔵 Dems - 45.92%
>🔴R+8.16
How Swing Voters Broke in 2018
🔴 GOP - 47.31%
🔵 Dems - 52.69%
>🔵D+5.39
This is why Texas now looks competitive this cycle. Trump crushed Harris with swing voters in 2024, and those voters are now necessarily dedicated Republicans. They're GOP-leaning (remember, Texas is a Red state!), but if they really sour on the GOP, they can end up producing mediocre margins for the Republican nominee, or even occasionally desert him as they did narrowly against Cruz in 2018.
This means that if Paxton does as poorly with swing voters as Cruz did in 2018, or even as poorly as Trump did in 2020, he's cooked and the polls will end up off in favor of the Democrats. Talarico will win by something like 1.5-4.5 points.
But if Paxton matches Abbott's performance with swing voters, it becomes a 50/50 toss-up where Talarico leads by 0.6%, but that could easily be overcome with election-day voters.
And if Paxton somehow matched even Cruz's coattails in 2024, when he won swing voters by 19 points off the back of Trump's victory, he wins by just over 1% (likely more like 1.5-2%, as election day will help him out too).
This is why the polls and betting markets give Talarico the lead right now. Paxton can win, but he must overcome a historical early-voting deficit that neither Trump in 2020 nor Cruz in 2018 faced, and win swing voters by a margin that at least approaches Greg Abbott's performance in 2022.
Texas Early Voting as of 10/30:
🔵Dems - 40.39%
⚪️Swing - 22.59%
🔴GOP - 37.03%
>🔵D+3.36%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 35.75%
⚪️Swing - 23.55%
🔴GOP - 40.69%
>🔴R+4.94%
On this day in 2022:
🔵Dems - 38.68%
⚪️Swing - 15.96%
🔴GOP - 45.36%
>🔴R+6.68%
On this day in 2020:
🔵Dems - 38.44%
⚪️Swing - 21.52%
🔴GOP - 40.04%
>🔴R+1.59%
On this day in 2018:
🔵Dems - 40.57%
⚪️Swing - 15.29%
🔴GOP - 44.14%
>🔴R+3.57%
"But wait, Trump ultimately did far better in 2024 than he did in 2020 or even compared to Abbott in 2022!"
Yes he did. His landslide victory was driven by swing voters who broke overwhelmingly for him. And fortunately for us, we have the benefit of hindsight as to how swing voters broke in the past.
How Swing Voters Broke in 2024
🔴 GOP - 67.78%
🔵 Dems - 32.22%
>🔴R+35.56!!!
How Swing Voters Broke in 2022
🔴 GOP - 56.08%
🔵 Dems - 43.92%
>🔴R+12.17
How Swing Voters Broke in 2020
🔴 GOP - 54.08%
🔵 Dems - 45.92%
>🔴R+8.16
How Swing Voters Broke in 2018
🔴 GOP - 47.31%
🔵 Dems - 52.69%
>🔵D+5.39
This is why Texas now looks competitive this cycle. Trump crushed Harris with swing voters in 2024, and those voters are now necessarily dedicated Republicans. They're GOP-leaning (remember, Texas is a Red state!), but if they really sour on the GOP, they can end up producing mediocre margins for the Republican nominee, or even occasionally desert him as they did narrowly against Cruz in 2018.
This means that if Paxton does as poorly with swing voters as Cruz did in 2018, or even as poorly as Trump did in 2020, he's cooked and the polls will end up off in favor of the Democrats. Talarico will win by something like 1.5-4.5 points.
But if Paxton matches Abbott's performance with swing voters, it becomes a 50/50 toss-up where Talarico leads by 0.6%, but that could easily be overcome with election-day voters.
And if Paxton somehow matched even Cruz's coattails in 2024, when he won swing voters by 19 points off the back of Trump's victory, he wins by just over 1% (likely more like 1.5-2%, as election day will help him out too).
This is why the polls and betting markets give Talarico the lead right now. Paxton can win, but he must overcome a historical early-voting deficit that neither Trump in 2020 nor Cruz in 2018 faced, and win swing voters by a margin that at least approaches Greg Abbott's performance in 2022.
@ChristianHeiens @NickJFreitas would still love to see it
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"and those voters are now necessarily dedicated Republicans"
Typo. I meant to say "not necessarily".
It's over.
Typo. I meant to say "not necessarily".
It's over.
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I'm hearing a lot of talk about Republicans having a great day at the polls over the last few days, but we need to look at the context here before we start to truly celebrate.
Remember, this happens every cycle, and much like the rock-bottom EV turnout in VA-3 (the blackest district in the state) we see every year, it's easy to assume this means more than it actually does.
So here's how the EV cycle usually plays out in VA.
Republicans start off strong and eat into the Dem margin in a big way. This crests, then reverses as Democrats flood the state with mail ballots and satellite voting locations open up in NOVA. That marks the first act of Virginia's early voting story every election cycle.
The second act begins with Dems running into diminishing returns. Republicans then get into gear down the home stretch, steadily chipping away at the Dem advantage once more until the Monday before the election, when the third and final act takes place: one last mail dump that shifts the EV a point or two back toward the Left.
In short, it's a constant tug of war, and we're in the phase right now where, historically, Republicans are gaining on the Democrats, just like they did in 2024 and in 2025.
Now whether this tilts the election one way or another is a different matter entirely. One could look at this trend in 2024 and conclude (accurately) that while Trump was going to lose Virginia, the trend was so strong towards the GOP that he was almost certainly going to win the Presidential election. Likewise, one could look at this same play unfold in 2025 and conclude that Democrats had not only parried the GOP phases of the EV play that we were heading for a blue tsunami, which is precisely what happened.
So where does that leave us today?
Well, Republicans have certainly gained on Democrats, as one would expect from where we currently are in the cycle. But the data isn't really pointing to anything beyond the ordinary.
The good news is that the Dem advantage in early voting compared to this time in 2024 has shrunk from 18.79 to 17.59 points to the Left, but the gap compared to 2025 has actually GROWN from 3.92 to 5.84 points to the Left.
The silver lining is that these numbers do not include all of today's turnout. We have heard very good news regarding today's performance in particular, and hopefully it will show up in the full data on Sunday or at least Monday at the latest. What we need to be looking for is closing the gap vs 2025.
It's probably a bridge too far at this point to narrow the margin below what we saw in 2025, but perhaps it'll be enough to save VA-5 and VA-1.
Christian Crystal Ball Early Voting Model for Virginia as of 10/30:
🔵Dems - 67.50%
🔴GOP - 32.49%
On this day in 2025:
🔵Dems - 64.58%
🔴GOP - 35.41%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 58.71%
🔴GOP - 41.29%
Remember, this happens every cycle, and much like the rock-bottom EV turnout in VA-3 (the blackest district in the state) we see every year, it's easy to assume this means more than it actually does.
So here's how the EV cycle usually plays out in VA.
Republicans start off strong and eat into the Dem margin in a big way. This crests, then reverses as Democrats flood the state with mail ballots and satellite voting locations open up in NOVA. That marks the first act of Virginia's early voting story every election cycle.
The second act begins with Dems running into diminishing returns. Republicans then get into gear down the home stretch, steadily chipping away at the Dem advantage once more until the Monday before the election, when the third and final act takes place: one last mail dump that shifts the EV a point or two back toward the Left.
In short, it's a constant tug of war, and we're in the phase right now where, historically, Republicans are gaining on the Democrats, just like they did in 2024 and in 2025.
Now whether this tilts the election one way or another is a different matter entirely. One could look at this trend in 2024 and conclude (accurately) that while Trump was going to lose Virginia, the trend was so strong towards the GOP that he was almost certainly going to win the Presidential election. Likewise, one could look at this same play unfold in 2025 and conclude that Democrats had not only parried the GOP phases of the EV play that we were heading for a blue tsunami, which is precisely what happened.
So where does that leave us today?
Well, Republicans have certainly gained on Democrats, as one would expect from where we currently are in the cycle. But the data isn't really pointing to anything beyond the ordinary.
The good news is that the Dem advantage in early voting compared to this time in 2024 has shrunk from 18.79 to 17.59 points to the Left, but the gap compared to 2025 has actually GROWN from 3.92 to 5.84 points to the Left.
The silver lining is that these numbers do not include all of today's turnout. We have heard very good news regarding today's performance in particular, and hopefully it will show up in the full data on Sunday or at least Monday at the latest. What we need to be looking for is closing the gap vs 2025.
It's probably a bridge too far at this point to narrow the margin below what we saw in 2025, but perhaps it'll be enough to save VA-5 and VA-1.
Christian Crystal Ball Early Voting Model for Virginia as of 10/30:
🔵Dems - 67.50%
🔴GOP - 32.49%
On this day in 2025:
🔵Dems - 64.58%
🔴GOP - 35.41%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 58.71%
🔴GOP - 41.29%
Christian Crystal Ball Early Voting Model for Virginia on 10/27:
🔵Dems - 68.12%
🔴GOP - 31.87%
On this day in 2025:
🔵Dems - 66.16%
🔴GOP - 33.83%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 58.73%
🔴GOP - 41.27%
Republicans have closed the gap over the last few days compared to 2025, bringing it from 8 points to the Left of last year to 3.
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