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If you’re worried about the AI Market Turmoil this week, you have to listen to David Sachs’ take!
“I don’t think that something fundamental has changed…We know the demand for computers keeps growing by leaps and bounds. Everyone is saying they are compute constrained… Demand is off the charts.”
“I don’t think that something fundamental has changed…We know the demand for computers keeps growing by leaps and bounds. Everyone is saying they are compute constrained… Demand is off the charts.”
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Despite significant recent opposition, the past 24 hours has revealed more than $100 billion of incremental neocloud-like compute financing, split between Broadcom's $AVGO $63 billion financing announced Monday afternoon, and the $40 billion Spacex $SPCX financing arranged by t.
Amid controversy relating to how financeable the business is, we view the trio of announcements as supportive of the $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN business models.
Amid controversy relating to how financeable the business is, we view the trio of announcements as supportive of the $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN business models.
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Cantor addressing the push back on AI data centers.
“Ultimately, whether we value the space using cap rates on Year 1 NOI or DCFs,
we come to the same conclusion - risk/reward remains very attractive at current levels. To justify current valuation, we have to be very aggressive e the contracted portfolios, while assuming there are no more leases to be signed, which we believe is a very unlikely scenario. The disconnect between compute demand and AIDC prices creates a buying opportunity, in our view.” $CIFR $GLXY $WULF
“Ultimately, whether we value the space using cap rates on Year 1 NOI or DCFs,
we come to the same conclusion - risk/reward remains very attractive at current levels. To justify current valuation, we have to be very aggressive e the contracted portfolios, while assuming there are no more leases to be signed, which we believe is a very unlikely scenario. The disconnect between compute demand and AIDC prices creates a buying opportunity, in our view.” $CIFR $GLXY $WULF
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Many people are speaking too much in absolutes, debt markets are closed, won’t be able to get any money, etc. This isn’t how markets work; they adapt, they find a way. Conflating more difficult or more expensive with not available is a mistake imo. $CRWV $NBIS $IREN
Cramer on what he fears is going to happen with $CRWV $NBIS $IREN:
“The neoclouds may not be able to get enough money. As Musk said yesterday, some will make it through but not many. That’s what I fear is going to happen most.”
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$MU Takeaways from Technology Webinar $1625 PT
MU was explicit in saying that: (1) the (DRAM) capacitor pitch more than the transistor cell structure effectively remains the ultimate driver of bit density and cost scaling; and (2) there is no viable path to scaling 4F2 VCAT (or Transistor) beyond pitch scaling - with MU going as far as suggesting that it is unlikely to pursue 4F2, given the architecture's greater complexity and cost.
MU was explicit in saying that: (1) the (DRAM) capacitor pitch more than the transistor cell structure effectively remains the ultimate driver of bit density and cost scaling; and (2) there is no viable path to scaling 4F2 VCAT (or Transistor) beyond pitch scaling - with MU going as far as suggesting that it is unlikely to pursue 4F2, given the architecture's greater complexity and cost.
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*NVIDIA, AMD, BROADCOM INTERESTED TO BUY UP TO $5B OF META STOCK
Circular financing bros loving this.
Circular financing bros loving this.
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I don’t understand the narrative that Chinese labs will destroy profitability in the model layer.
I’d imagine the investors in this round want to see a return on their capital?
I’d imagine the investors in this round want to see a return on their capital?
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Bloomberg: External funding should become a bigger gate on AI capacity in 2027 as spending outruns cash generation at more builders. Our Sept. 22 work found gross company-year shortfalls across nine AI builders peaking at $328 billion in 2027.
If this bullish or bearish? 🐂 🐻
If this bullish or bearish? 🐂 🐻
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👀 Apollo: Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.
The bottom line is that the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7, and so far, therevenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector.
The bottom line is that the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7, and so far, therevenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector.
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Finance is one of the jobs most at risk from AI according to Bloomberg.
It’s never been more over. 😢
It’s never been more over. 😢
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Bloomberg: Anthropic’s expected year end ARR is only 0.33% of their Total Addressable Market
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UBS on $WDC (HDD/Memory multiples): "Ultimately, it is true that the multiple here has already compressed quite a bit, but we see no reason why HDD stocks should command a premium to memory stocks like $MU (in fact, maybe ultimately a discount) so even though we walk numbers up once again (C2027 to ~$42 and C2028 to ~$62), our PT actually comes down from $470 to $435 using the exact same 7x multiple applied to C2028 EPS (for MU we use 7x C2029 but discount back 1yr)."
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“reflecting the overall market sell-off and lower overall multiples, our new price target of $625”
lol this again…
lol this again…
OMG!! 😳
Cantor: reflecting the overall market sell off and lower overall multiples, our $WDC new price target is $625 from $900…
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