it's the same antibody, same 5mg. a fifth of it moved from conjugated to free. viscosity fix, marketing story.
plus daylight already ran max drug in the eye. 5mg monthly, 12 doses. +2.5 letters vs eylea q8w's +4.6. that "win" cleared NI by 0.62 letters (−3.88 vs a −4.5 margin), on 50% more injections. that's the ceiling of ur exposure argument. it's already been measured. and it sucked.
plus daylight already ran max drug in the eye. 5mg monthly, 12 doses. +2.5 letters vs eylea q8w's +4.6. that "win" cleared NI by 0.62 letters (−3.88 vs a −4.5 margin), on 50% more injections. that's the ceiling of ur exposure argument. it's already been measured. and it sucked.
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@anonmoneyguru it's real. just a starter tho, only .05% of the portfolio.
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@anonmoneyguru Borrowed about 50 million from real holders and 950 million from Lucid's ATM. Give them till December, they'll print the rest.
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20/ Scoreboard: $443.6 million lost since they started. Approved drugs: zero.
This trial misses. Short it.
And if the headline says "positive" anyway, short more. Yuichi Iwaki has done it before.
$MNOV goes to $1-1.5.
This trial misses. Short it.
And if the headline says "positive" anyway, short more. Yuichi Iwaki has done it before.
$MNOV goes to $1-1.5.
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19/ They've done this before. March 2007, same CEO.
Headline: "MediciNova Announces Positive Clinical Results."
Third paragraph: the drug missed the main goal the trial was designed to hit.
Their 2007 deck promised the next big MS trial "as early as 08Q2." Kids born that quarter big MS trial.
Headline: "MediciNova Announces Positive Clinical Results."
Third paragraph: the drug missed the main goal the trial was designed to hit.
Their 2007 deck promised the next big MS trial "as early as 08Q2." Kids born that quarter big MS trial.
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18/ And they're already bracing you. Same talk, two weeks before the data: a negative MN-001 result "would not determine the outcome" of the ALS trial.
When a company tells you a result doesn't matter right before it lands, it's not because they're optimistic.
When a company tells you a result doesn't matter right before it lands, it's not because they're optimistic.
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17/ Follow the money.
Dec 29, 2025: MNOV hires Lucid Capital Markets to sell up to $50 million of new stock, for a 3% cut.
Jan 5, 2026: Lucid starts publishing research on the stock.
Aug 19, 2026, six weeks before results: new contracts for CEO Yuichi Iwaki and Matsuda. If Iwaki sale, he walks with two years of pay plus two years of bonus.
Everybody gets paid. Except you.
Dec 29, 2025: MNOV hires Lucid Capital Markets to sell up to $50 million of new stock, for a 3% cut.
Jan 5, 2026: Lucid starts publishing research on the stock.
Aug 19, 2026, six weeks before results: new contracts for CEO Yuichi Iwaki and Matsuda. If Iwaki sale, he walks with two years of pay plus two years of bonus.
Everybody gets paid. Except you.
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16/ Hear it from their own business chief.
David Crean, this month, on the small ALS study that launched the big trial: "It was small. The treatment groups were imbalanced." The results were "not truly definitive evidence of efficacy."
Then he brought up Relyvrio, the ALS drug pulled after its big trial flopped. Bold move for a sales pitch.
David Crean, this month, on the small ALS study that launched the big trial: "It was small. The treatment groups were imbalanced." The results were "not truly definitive evidence of efficacy."
Then he brought up Relyvrio, the ALS drug pulled after its big trial flopped. Bold move for a sales pitch.
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15/ Now the ALS story they will hide behind when MN-001 misses. Readout in December.
MNOV's own CMO co-authored an earlier open-label study of this drug in ALS at up to 100 mg a day.
31% of patients quit over drug-related side effects. No significant reduction in PET signal or LS runs the same top dose.
MNOV's own CMO co-authored an earlier open-label study of this drug in ALS at up to 100 mg a day.
31% of patients quit over drug-related side effects. No significant reduction in PET signal or LS runs the same top dose.
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14/ And even a win is a dead end.
In 2016 the FDA said lowering triglycerides in people on statins doesn't prove a drug prevents heart attacks or strokes. It stripped two drugs of part of their approval over it.
The first study the FDA cited was in type 2 diabetics. The same kind al.
In 2016 the FDA said lowering triglycerides in people on statins doesn't prove a drug prevents heart attacks or strokes. It stripped two drugs of part of their approval over it.
The first study the FDA cited was in type 2 diabetics. The same kind al.
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13/ Say the drug works anyway.
Medicinova says it blocks one of the same enzymes as cilostazol, an old generic pill. Cilostazol's FDA label: triglycerides down 15% versus placebo.
It also carries the FDA's scariest warning: don't give it to heart failure patients.
Best case, they spent ten years reinventing a generic with a black box.
Medicinova says it blocks one of the same enzymes as cilostazol, an old generic pill. Cilostazol's FDA label: triglycerides down 15% versus placebo.
It also carries the FDA's scariest warning: don't give it to heart failure patients.
Best case, they spent ten years reinventing a generic with a black box.
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12/ Why only diabetics in the new trial?
A post-hoc split of those same 19 open-label patients. Diabetics looked better. p-value: 0.098.
Their deck and their 10-K can't even agree on what that 0.098 is testing.
They built a whole new trial on it.
A post-hoc split of those same 19 open-label patients. Diabetics looked better. p-value: 0.098.
Their deck and their 10-K can't even agree on what that 0.098 is testing.
They built a whole new trial on it.
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11/ So how much did triglycerides really fall? Their own protocol measures each patient's percent change.
What they posted publicly: about 22%.
What they put on the investor slide: 40.2%.
The slide math lets the patients who started highest count the most. Same data. Nearly c.
What they posted publicly: about 22%.
What they put on the investor slide: 40.2%.
The slide math lets the patients who started highest count the most. Same data. Nearly c.
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8/ The pilot's number one goal, per its own protocol, was a cholesterol test called "cholesterol efflux."
Result: basically zero.
Search every MNOV SEC filing for "cholesterol efflux." One hit: the 2016 slide promising it. The result never made it into a single filing.
Last November they bragged about cholesterol efflux in immune cells. In cells, a miracle. In humans, a zero.
Result: basically zero.
Search every MNOV SEC filing for "cholesterol efflux." One hit: the 2016 slide promising it. The result never made it into a single filing.
Last November they bragged about cholesterol efflux in immune cells. In cells, a miracle. In humans, a zero.
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