I spoke with BBC’s legendary @JohnSimpsonNews on whether the Iranian regime can survive this war.

I discussed how Iran is signalling flexibility while refusing to back down on its demands.

For example, Tehran has reportedly sent a new nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, amid a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days.

I also discussed Iran’s growing .

Tehran appears to have learned from recent wars that energy dependence can be a powerful form of deterrence. By seeking to transit Russian gas through its territory, Iran hopes to expand its strategic leverage.

با رویگردانی رای‌دهندگان از ترامپ، دموکرات‌ها کنترل کنگره را به دست می‌گیرند
پوشش ویژه بی‌بی‌سی فارسی

Iranian media have released footage of an underground missile facility belonging to the Revolutionary Guards Navy in the south of the country, showing rows of missiles and mobile launchers.

Meanwhile in Iran, more voices are openly talking about making a nuclear bomb.

Tehran’s Friday prayer Imam today: Why shouldn’t we reconsider our nuclear doctrine?

"Over the years, the Iranian people have had painful experiences with the US. The other side has crossed the Iranian nation’s red lines, killed our leader, and failed to honour its commitments and agreements," Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari said.

Beyond the military conflict, there's also a battle over the narrative in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran claims four oil tankers struck naval mines.

UKMTO has separately said that a dhow caught fire and sank near Oman.

President Trump accuses Tehran of fabricating these incidents ahead of the US midterm elections.

Also, Iran has confirmed receiving a letter from US Vice President JD Vance, reportedly aimed at reviving peace talks.

But does Vance have enough sway with Trump to push for peace talks, when the president himself says the letter wasn't about peace?

I explained many within the Iranian establishment believe this is a pause in the conflict rather than the end of it. And the threats coming from both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are being taken seriously in Tehran.

In response, Iran has ratcheted up its rhetoric. The ve warned that another war could be geographically much wider, and said that even the use of the so-called “Mother of All Bombs” would not force Iran to surrender or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They’ve also hinted that undersea internet cables running through the strait could become targets.

The Revolutionary Guards have warned that the more Iran backs down, the more its enemies will push. That tells us something important about Tehran’s thinking: it sees resistance, rather than concessions, as the way to restore its deterrence.

But there's also a fundamental question for President Trump: what could another military campaign achieve that the previous two wars failed to achieve? And could further strikes simply harden Iran's position, as appears to have happened after the previous rounds of fighting?

And perhaps most importantly, Iran's response to another military campaign is far from predictable. There's no guarantee that another round of fighting would remain limited or bring either side closer to a political settlement.

Iranian state TV has aired footage of army drone production facilities, showing an upgraded version of Arash drone.

Reported upgrades:

- Payload increased from 50kg to 100kg
- Improved precision using AI
- Jet propulsion engine

The report also shows a new drone, saying its will be revealed later.

Iranian Army Commander Amir Hatami is also interviewed at one of the facilities.

Pakistan's latest mediation mission to Tehran was fruitless.

Iran says the door to diplomacy remains open, but is unwilling to make concessions and insists Washington must take the first steps.

Pakistan is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it's a key channel of ehran and Washington. On the other, it's a defence partner of Saudi Arabia, which is facing attacks from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Senior IRGC commander threatens to destroy undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if Iran’s infrastructure is attacked.

Yadollah Javani also said that US forces must leave the region, arguing that Iran seeks to strengthen its deterrence capabilities and ensure that tack Iran again.

Can the US Destroy Iran’s Suspected Nuclear Site at Pickaxe Mountain with the ‘Mother of All Bombs’?

I explained the difference between the MOAB and the bunker-buster bombs used against Fordow nuclear site.

But the bigger question is whether further US military action against litical solution and ultimately bring the conflict to an end.

I also explained Russia’s words and actions tell two different stories.

Putin promised to support Tehran when he met Iran’s president. Yet just a day later, he struck an energy deal with Trump that could undermine Iran’s leverage in the conflict.

What do we know about Iran’s proposed plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days?

Former Iranian police chief explains why Iran signed the MoU with the US and what led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again.

Esmail Ahmadimoghaddam says Iran needed a pause between the two rounds of war, time to rebuild, recover and prepare for another round of fighting.
argely seen as an achievement. Some Iranian officials still say they were surprised that Donald Trump agreed to make so many concessions.

So when the three vessels were targeted, it came as a surprise to many inside Iran as well.

Among the reasons Ahmadimoghaddam gives for Iran needing the pause is oil:

🛢️ Oil exports: he says Iran’s oil exports had been halted for almost 55 days and the country had accumulated about 115 million barrels of oil, both in storage and on tankers in the Persian Gulf. During the pause, he says Iran managed to export around 90 million barrels.

He says the sudden increase in supply initially led buyers to demand lower prices. But when Iran closed the Strait again, prices rose, allowing Iran to sell the oil at higher prices.

He also mentions Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral processions, including the ceremonies in Iraq. It appears that holding large-scale events in Iraq was particularly important for Iran as a way of projecting its power. However, the three vessels were targeted while the funeral was still taking place and President Pezeshkian was in Iraq.

Other reasons Ahmadimoghaddam gives for signing the MoU and needing time:

- Rebuilding and upgrading missile and drone capabilities: He says Iran restored its drone capacity to roughly pre-war levels and expanded and improved its missile capabilities.

- Strengthening air defences: He claims Iran improved its ability to detect and hit US drones, including MQ-9s.

- Updating its target bank and reconnaissance capabilities.

- Speeding up target selection: He says software now allows Iran to match weapons to targets much faster.

- Repairing damaged infrastructure: He claims 70–90% of capacity in sectors including steel, petrochemicals, electricity and gas had been restored.

- Stabilising fuel and energy supplies: He says the government worked to address petrol and diesel shortages to reduce the risk of protests.

- Replenishing strategic reserves: He says Iran strengthened its reserves of food, medicine, foreign currency and other essential goods. Despite his claims, Iran is currently facing shortages of medicines, including essential and life-saving drugs, while the cost of food has risen sharply.

P.S. Ahmadimoghaddam is now the president of Iran’s Supreme National Defense University.

چرا ایران بعد از امضای تفاهم‌نامه با آمریکا سه کشتی را زد و تنگه هرمز را بست؟

اینجا احمدی‌مقدم در حال توضیح دادن یکی از دلایل آن است:
نود میلیون بشکه نفت‌مان از محاصره خارج شد اما خریداری نشد. چون ناگهان نفت زیادی عرضه شده بود، مشتری‌ها با قیمت‌های پایین می‌خواستند بخرند. با با قیمت بالا فروختیم.

او رئیس دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و رئیس پلیس پیشین ایران است.

Iran to Its Neighbors: If We Can’t Fly, Neither Can You

The tweet below is from an aide and adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader:

“Either flights in the region are open to everyone, or to no one. If Iran is unable to operate flights or receive airport services, no other country in the region will be able to do so either.”

Is Iran threatening to attack airports across the region? And if so, how far is Tehran prepared to escalate?

This is not the only warning Iran has issued to countries in the region in recent days.

Two days ago, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (the country’s top national security decision-making body) issued a similar threat, saying that if Iranian planes were unable to fly, airports in those countries would not be able to function either.

And in his UN General Assembly address, President Masoud Pezeshkian gave a similar message to Iran’s neighbours: either we builds security together, or we will all face insecurity together.