NEXT WEEK: “The New American Frontier” book launch
AESG Resident Scholar @Rachel_Lipson studies seven regions at the forefront of frontier technologies—from electric vehicle plants in Austin to small modular reactors in Idaho—to explore how educators, employers, and policymakers ob training system to fill critical roles in emerging industries.
Join us on November 17 for a conversation on the book’s key findings and policy solutions to strengthen the pathways into these careers.
Agenda highlights:
- Book discussion: Lipson sits down with @byHeatherLong, @NavyFederal Chief Economist and former Washington Post economics columnist
- Expert panel: Insights from education and workforce development leaders @EsauPearl (TechSmart Learning Fund, Arizona), Garrett Groves (Austin Community College), and Hope Morrow (@INL)
- Networking reception: Open to in-person attendees in Washington, DC
Register today to attend in person or via livestream: economicstrategygroup.org/event/book-lau…
AESG Resident Scholar @Rachel_Lipson studies seven regions at the forefront of frontier technologies—from electric vehicle plants in Austin to small modular reactors in Idaho—to explore how educators, employers, and policymakers ob training system to fill critical roles in emerging industries.
Join us on November 17 for a conversation on the book’s key findings and policy solutions to strengthen the pathways into these careers.
Agenda highlights:
- Book discussion: Lipson sits down with @byHeatherLong, @NavyFederal Chief Economist and former Washington Post economics columnist
- Expert panel: Insights from education and workforce development leaders @EsauPearl (TechSmart Learning Fund, Arizona), Garrett Groves (Austin Community College), and Hope Morrow (@INL)
- Networking reception: Open to in-person attendees in Washington, DC
Register today to attend in person or via livestream: economicstrategygroup.org/event/book-lau…
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“My colleague Kim Clausing and I just put out a paper with the Aspen Economic Strategy Group that offers a way to raise $15 trillion to meet an extraordinary fiscal moment in kind of ordinary ways.”
On @BloombergTV, @NatashaRSarin (@YaleLawSch; @The_Budget_Lab) discussed her latest AESG paper that addresses one of the country’s most pressing economic challenges—the high and rising federal debt.
Co-authored with @KClausing, the work lays out an agenda to meaningfully raise government revenue by implementing ordinary, time-tested tax mechanisms.
Watch her discussion with @DavidWestin here: youtu.be/AUJA7d08ZeM?si…
On @BloombergTV, @NatashaRSarin (@YaleLawSch; @The_Budget_Lab) discussed her latest AESG paper that addresses one of the country’s most pressing economic challenges—the high and rising federal debt.
Co-authored with @KClausing, the work lays out an agenda to meaningfully raise government revenue by implementing ordinary, time-tested tax mechanisms.
Watch her discussion with @DavidWestin here: youtu.be/AUJA7d08ZeM?si…
America’s national debt has climbed past $40 trillion and persistent deficits are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Economists including Natasha Sarin of the Yale Budget Lab argue that heavier government borrowing ultimately filters through to households in the s, car loans and other financing costs. More on Wall Street Week bloom.bg/3EMZYZX
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And read Sarin and Clausing’s full paper, “$15 Trillion on the Table in 2029: Ordinary Taxes to Meet an Extraordinary Fiscal Moment,” here: economicstrategygroup.org/publication/15…
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America’s competitiveness in advanced industries depends on building critical talent pipelines to fill new jobs emerging across the country—from semiconductor fabs to quantum labs to battery plants.
On November 17, join the AESG for a live discussion about Resident Scholar l_Lipson) new book, “The New American Frontier: Job Training for the Next Technological Age.”
We’ll explore this next generation of technical jobs and how leaders can better prepare and connect workers to new careers.
🗓️Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
📍Aspen Institute (Washington, DC) or via livestream
Agenda Highlights:
- Book discussion with Lipson and Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union Heather Long (@byHeatherLong)
- Expert panel with education and workforce development leaders Pearl Chang Esau (@EsauPearl), Garrett Groves, and Hope Morrow
- Post-panel reception (in-person attendees only)
Sign up here to secure your spot: economicstrategygroup.org/event/book-lau…
On November 17, join the AESG for a live discussion about Resident Scholar l_Lipson) new book, “The New American Frontier: Job Training for the Next Technological Age.”
We’ll explore this next generation of technical jobs and how leaders can better prepare and connect workers to new careers.
🗓️Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
📍Aspen Institute (Washington, DC) or via livestream
Agenda Highlights:
- Book discussion with Lipson and Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union Heather Long (@byHeatherLong)
- Expert panel with education and workforce development leaders Pearl Chang Esau (@EsauPearl), Garrett Groves, and Hope Morrow
- Post-panel reception (in-person attendees only)
Sign up here to secure your spot: economicstrategygroup.org/event/book-lau…
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In a @nytimes essay, AESG authors Owen Zidar (@omzidar) and Eric Zwick argue that taxing a handful of billionaires “misses the forest of wealth in the Golden State for a few redwoods in Silicon Valley.” To raise meaningful revenue, they argue, the state needs to close existing cumbent homeowners and “everywhere millionaires,” who figure little in the tax policy debate today.
Zidar and Zwick estimate California is home to about 450,000 households that own a private business and have at least $5 million in wealth. This group is collectively worth about $9 trillion, nearly five times as much as the billionaires.
The AESG recently sat down with Zidar and Zwick to discuss their research on everywhere millionaires. Watch the clip below for one of their key findings, and read their full op-ed here: nytimes.com/2026/10/29/opi…
Zidar and Zwick estimate California is home to about 450,000 households that own a private business and have at least $5 million in wealth. This group is collectively worth about $9 trillion, nearly five times as much as the billionaires.
The AESG recently sat down with Zidar and Zwick to discuss their research on everywhere millionaires. Watch the clip below for one of their key findings, and read their full op-ed here: nytimes.com/2026/10/29/opi…
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For their perspectives on US tax policy, see Zidar and Zwick’s AESG paper, “The Next Business Tax Regime: What Comes After the TCJA.”
economicstrategygroup.org/publication/th…
economicstrategygroup.org/publication/th…
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Join the AESG on Tuesday, November 17 at 3:30 p.m. ET for a discussion of “The New American Frontier: Job Training for the Next Technological Age” with author and AESG Resident Scholar Rachel Lipson (@Rachel_Lipson).
In “The New American Frontier,” Lipson explores how a new wave tion is creating opportunities for good-paying jobs that do not require a four-year degree. She then offers a forward-looking agenda for how educators, employers, and policymakers can strengthen the pathways into these careers.
The event will feature a discussion on the book’s central themes with Lipson and AESG Policy Director Luke Pardue (@parduel), followed by a panel with education and workforce development leaders Pearl Chang Esau (@EsauPearl), Garrett Groves, and Hope Morrow. In-person attendees are invited to join us for a reception after the panel.
Register to attend in person at the Aspen Institute’s Washington, DC office or via livestream here: economicstrategygroup.org/event/book-lau…
In “The New American Frontier,” Lipson explores how a new wave tion is creating opportunities for good-paying jobs that do not require a four-year degree. She then offers a forward-looking agenda for how educators, employers, and policymakers can strengthen the pathways into these careers.
The event will feature a discussion on the book’s central themes with Lipson and AESG Policy Director Luke Pardue (@parduel), followed by a panel with education and workforce development leaders Pearl Chang Esau (@EsauPearl), Garrett Groves, and Hope Morrow. In-person attendees are invited to join us for a reception after the panel.
Register to attend in person at the Aspen Institute’s Washington, DC office or via livestream here: economicstrategygroup.org/event/book-lau…
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As California voters weigh a billionaire wealth tax and similar proposals are floated in Congress, @KClausing (@UCLA_Law) argues in @FT that federal corporate tax reform can achieve similar aims in a time-tested fashion.
Her plan, co-authored with @NatashaRSarin (@YaleLawSch; @The_Budget_Lab) in a recent AESG paper, argues that raising the corporate tax rate on fewer than 2% of corporate taxpayers, paired with base-broadening reforms, would raise an estimated $4 trillion over a decade.
Read her full piece here: ft.com/content/e6c9d3…
Her plan, co-authored with @NatashaRSarin (@YaleLawSch; @The_Budget_Lab) in a recent AESG paper, argues that raising the corporate tax rate on fewer than 2% of corporate taxpayers, paired with base-broadening reforms, would raise an estimated $4 trillion over a decade.
Read her full piece here: ft.com/content/e6c9d3…
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And read Clausing and Sarin’s recent paper, “$15 Trillion on the Table in 2029: Ordinary Taxes to Meet an Extraordinary Fiscal Moment,” here: economicstrategygroup.org/publication/15…
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They highlight that the distributional effects of the full five-bucket package remain highly progressive.
Increased tax burdens at the bottom of the income distribution are largely driven by the increases in sin taxes, but policymakers could offset such taxes by allocating ction efforts such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit.
Increased tax burdens at the bottom of the income distribution are largely driven by the increases in sin taxes, but policymakers could offset such taxes by allocating ction efforts such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit.
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Read the full paper, “$15 Trillion on the Table in 2029: Ordinary Taxes to Meet an Extraordinary Fiscal Moment,” here: economicstrategygroup.org/publication/15…
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Bucket 5: Reform capital income taxation
The capital gains and dividends that make up the majority of income at the top of the distribution enjoy lower statutory rates and can even escape taxation altogether through step-up in basis at death.
Clausing and Sarin propose a uld reduce the preferential tax treatment of capital income, such as raising tax rates on long-term capital gains and dividends by 5 percentage points and lowering the estate tax exemption, that would generate $2.1 trillion over the budget window.
The capital gains and dividends that make up the majority of income at the top of the distribution enjoy lower statutory rates and can even escape taxation altogether through step-up in basis at death.
Clausing and Sarin propose a uld reduce the preferential tax treatment of capital income, such as raising tax rates on long-term capital gains and dividends by 5 percentage points and lowering the estate tax exemption, that would generate $2.1 trillion over the budget window.
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The first three reforms would raise an estimated $7.5 trillion, while the five buckets would raise $14.6 trillion over the ten-year budget window.
The authors find that the $7.5 trillion package would roughly stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio through the mid-2050s, while the ld bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to approximately 57 percent by 2056.
They point out that lower debt also reduces US borrowing costs: by 2056, ten-year Treasury yields are about 1 percentage point lower under the $7.5 trillion scenario and about 2 percentage points lower under the $15 trillion scenario.
The authors find that the $7.5 trillion package would roughly stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio through the mid-2050s, while the ld bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to approximately 57 percent by 2056.
They point out that lower debt also reduces US borrowing costs: by 2056, ten-year Treasury yields are about 1 percentage point lower under the $7.5 trillion scenario and about 2 percentage points lower under the $15 trillion scenario.
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Bucket 1: Reform corporate taxation
The corporate tax is a flexible and progressive policy lever that taxes excess profits wherever they arise, whether from AI deployment or other sources. Clausing and Sarin propose raising the corporate tax rate to 27 percent for the s.
Focusing corporate tax increases on just a tiny fraction of the corporate tax base would leave about 98 percent of taxpayers with no additional tax burden yet retain nearly all the revenue from the tax increase. These higher headline rates would need to be coupled with international tax reforms to prevent profit shifting.
They group this provision with a broadening of the corporate tax base to better tax pure profits and international tax reforms to prevent profit shifting. These changes would raise a combined $4 trillion over the ten-year budget window.
The corporate tax is a flexible and progressive policy lever that taxes excess profits wherever they arise, whether from AI deployment or other sources. Clausing and Sarin propose raising the corporate tax rate to 27 percent for the s.
Focusing corporate tax increases on just a tiny fraction of the corporate tax base would leave about 98 percent of taxpayers with no additional tax burden yet retain nearly all the revenue from the tax increase. These higher headline rates would need to be coupled with international tax reforms to prevent profit shifting.
They group this provision with a broadening of the corporate tax base to better tax pure profits and international tax reforms to prevent profit shifting. These changes would raise a combined $4 trillion over the ten-year budget window.
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Bucket 4: Adjust income tax parameters
The authors consider a hybrid structure of returning individual rates to the 1997 levels for most taxpayers, while leaving the bottom two tax brackets at current levels. They also propose repealing the pass-through business income 199A.
Repealing the Section 199A deduction would improve horizontal equity by treating labor and capital income more similarly and would reduce incentives for economically unproductive forms of tax planning. Together these reforms would generate $6 trillion over the budget window.
The authors consider a hybrid structure of returning individual rates to the 1997 levels for most taxpayers, while leaving the bottom two tax brackets at current levels. They also propose repealing the pass-through business income 199A.
Repealing the Section 199A deduction would improve horizontal equity by treating labor and capital income more similarly and would reduce incentives for economically unproductive forms of tax planning. Together these reforms would generate $6 trillion over the budget window.
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Bucket 3: Implement a menu of “sin” taxes
Excise taxes have a long history in the United States. Such taxes on services that impose a negative externality or social cost, or “sin” taxes, offer significant revenue-generation potential while discouraging certain activities that onsequences.
The authors propose a 5 percent tax on the value of sports wagers, alongside a tax on prediction market winnings, that would generate over $130 billion. They pair this with a $40 per metric ton tax on carbon emissions that would raise roughly $1.2 trillion and better align US climate policy with peer nations.
Excise taxes have a long history in the United States. Such taxes on services that impose a negative externality or social cost, or “sin” taxes, offer significant revenue-generation potential while discouraging certain activities that onsequences.
The authors propose a 5 percent tax on the value of sports wagers, alongside a tax on prediction market winnings, that would generate over $130 billion. They pair this with a $40 per metric ton tax on carbon emissions that would raise roughly $1.2 trillion and better align US climate policy with peer nations.
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Bucket 2: Invest in IRS capacity
Audit rates for high-income taxpayers have collapsed in recent years, and the IRS is currently operating at staffing levels not seen since the 1960s.
An $80 billion investment in IRS capacity over the ten-year budget window would raise an in revenue that is already owed under current law.
Audit rates for high-income taxpayers have collapsed in recent years, and the IRS is currently operating at staffing levels not seen since the 1960s.
An $80 billion investment in IRS capacity over the ten-year budget window would raise an in revenue that is already owed under current law.
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The US fiscal position is unsustainable: federal debt passed 100 percent of GDP in March, and the CBO projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach nearly 130 percent by 2039.
In a new AESG paper, @KClausing (@UCLA_Law, @PIIE) and @NatashaRSarin (@YaleLawSch, @The_Budget_Lab) propose a tax policy agenda to put the US on a stable fiscal path.
economicstrategygroup.org/publication/15…
In a new AESG paper, @KClausing (@UCLA_Law, @PIIE) and @NatashaRSarin (@YaleLawSch, @The_Budget_Lab) propose a tax policy agenda to put the US on a stable fiscal path.
economicstrategygroup.org/publication/15…
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The authors also argue that novel tax instruments, such as taxes on wealth and unrealized capital gains, face steep legal and implementation hurdles, and therefore policymakers should look to well-established tax mechanisms to raise revenue.
Their proposed reforms fall into five buckets and would raise $15 trillion over a ten-year window.
Their proposed reforms fall into five buckets and would raise $15 trillion over a ten-year window.
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In contrast, in their assessment, there are meaningful opportunities to raise revenue.
The US currently ranks 32nd out of 38 countries in the OECD in tax revenue collected relative to GDP, in part due to a series of tax cuts over the past 25 years that have reduced federal tax n $300 billion per year.
One benefit of the country’s low-tax status, Clausing and Sarin point out, is that there are plentiful options for tax revenue that can be collected in ways that are unlikely to be highly distortionary.
The US currently ranks 32nd out of 38 countries in the OECD in tax revenue collected relative to GDP, in part due to a series of tax cuts over the past 25 years that have reduced federal tax n $300 billion per year.
One benefit of the country’s low-tax status, Clausing and Sarin point out, is that there are plentiful options for tax revenue that can be collected in ways that are unlikely to be highly distortionary.
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Clausing and Sarin focus on the tax side of the ledger because they believe there are more politically-feasible ways for raising revenue than there are for cutting spending.
Government spending today largely finances politically popular entitlement programs, national defense, ebt: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, national defense, and interest on existing debt account for 74 percent of the government’s expenditures in 2026.
Another 13 percent is committed to other mandatory programs, such as veterans’ benefits and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), leaving little room for meaningful cuts.
Government spending today largely finances politically popular entitlement programs, national defense, ebt: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, national defense, and interest on existing debt account for 74 percent of the government’s expenditures in 2026.
Another 13 percent is committed to other mandatory programs, such as veterans’ benefits and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), leaving little room for meaningful cuts.
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