Pinned Tweet
NEW 🚨 Inside Anthropic — AGI, AI Optimism, Regulatory Capture, Open Source & More!
@JTLonsdale sits down with Anthropic's @_sholtodouglas and @the_marwell
- Have we reached AGI — and what does it mean?
- What are the most exciting breakthroughs at Anthropic right now?
- What are oncerns?
- What is their stance on open source?
- Is Anthropic angling for regulatory capture?
- Do AI researchers share same values as the heartland?
Episode 164 out now!
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) Self-taught ML; Unlikely paths to Anthropic
(04:30) What are the most exciting things you're working on?
(08:04) Have we reached AGI — and what comes next?
(10:10) How to measure AI progress
(14:20) Is biology the next great frontier?
(16:50) Career advice & the decade of the generalists
(19:30) What could go wrong? What are the biggest AI risks?
(23:11) Offense vs defense; how technology evolves
(25:08) Answering the regulatory capture critique
(30:45) Anthropic's stance on open source
(31:50) Would you slow down and let China go ahead?
(33:05) Anthropic's view on distillation
(40:12) Is a post-scarcity world achievable?
(48:54) How do we preserve values, tradition & community?
(55:00) Predictions for 2028
@JTLonsdale sits down with Anthropic's @_sholtodouglas and @the_marwell
- Have we reached AGI — and what does it mean?
- What are the most exciting breakthroughs at Anthropic right now?
- What are oncerns?
- What is their stance on open source?
- Is Anthropic angling for regulatory capture?
- Do AI researchers share same values as the heartland?
Episode 164 out now!
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) Self-taught ML; Unlikely paths to Anthropic
(04:30) What are the most exciting things you're working on?
(08:04) Have we reached AGI — and what comes next?
(10:10) How to measure AI progress
(14:20) Is biology the next great frontier?
(16:50) Career advice & the decade of the generalists
(19:30) What could go wrong? What are the biggest AI risks?
(23:11) Offense vs defense; how technology evolves
(25:08) Answering the regulatory capture critique
(30:45) Anthropic's stance on open source
(31:50) Would you slow down and let China go ahead?
(33:05) Anthropic's view on distillation
(40:12) Is a post-scarcity world achievable?
(48:54) How do we preserve values, tradition & community?
(55:00) Predictions for 2028
20
62
549
225,262
Anthropic's @_sholtodouglas tells @JTLonsdale that AI models went from scoring 0% on advanced math evaluations to over 60% in just the past year.
Joe Lonsdale: We were talking to Dario earlier this year, and by some metrics, some capabilities were doubling every few months. How ifying progress?
Sholto Douglas: There's a lot of evals, and these are basically exams where people test the models. And on these, progress is extremely rapid...
I don't want to lean too much on math as an example, but math is maybe the best in some ways...
We went from 0% on a course assembled by professors across different fields to well over 40%, 50%, 60% just over the course of last year.
Joe Lonsdale: We were talking to Dario earlier this year, and by some metrics, some capabilities were doubling every few months. How ifying progress?
Sholto Douglas: There's a lot of evals, and these are basically exams where people test the models. And on these, progress is extremely rapid...
I don't want to lean too much on math as an example, but math is maybe the best in some ways...
We went from 0% on a course assembled by professors across different fields to well over 40%, 50%, 60% just over the course of last year.
It’s almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who’s working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now.
The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart. If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way.
But what’s happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you’re likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now.
I’ve never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren’t wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren’t either.
With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It’s a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn’t work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times.
1
1
20
1,413
Marc Andreessen: "Europe seems enthusiastic about being left behind...
25 years ago, if you did a list of the 50 biggest tech companies in the world, a pretty significant number of them were European... probably 15 of the top 50.
Today, you're basically down to Spotify. I love what the European tech sector used to be.
They have sort of deliberately disarmed and turned away from technology and progress and capitalism in really profound ways for decades now."
@pmarca speaking to @JTLonsdale and @uaustinorg
25 years ago, if you did a list of the 50 biggest tech companies in the world, a pretty significant number of them were European... probably 15 of the top 50.
Today, you're basically down to Spotify. I love what the European tech sector used to be.
They have sort of deliberately disarmed and turned away from technology and progress and capitalism in really profound ways for decades now."
@pmarca speaking to @JTLonsdale and @uaustinorg
This is eye-opening. Europe’s share of global tech R&D has collapsed from 23% in 2005 to just 8% today, while the US has climbed to 62% and China has risen from near zero to 15%. South Korea now outspends Germany, France, the UK, and Italy combined in tech R&D. Yep, you read that right.
result of policy choices that systematically favor control and redistribution over growth. Layered regulation, data rules, AI restrictions, labor rigidities, and precautionary frameworks, raises the cost and slows the pace of turning ideas into products, forcing companies to spend scarce resources on compliance rather than experimentation. High taxation and expansive redistributive systems extract capital that would otherwise fund private R&D and risk-taking, while shrinking the after-tax reward for building something new and scaling it. The broader left-leaning mindset that prioritizes equality of outcome over dynamism treats entrepreneurial success as something to be managed, taxed, or shared rather than unleashed and rewarded.
Places that protect the returns to innovation and keep barriers low continue to pull ahead, attracting talent and capital that Europe increasingly loses. Europe’s relative decline is the cumulative outcome of treating dynamism as a problem to be regulated rather than the engine of prosperity. Without a shift toward lighter rules, lower burdens on enterprise, and greater tolerance for unequal outcomes from unequal effort, the gap will keep widening, and Europe will become an open-air museum for wealthy Americans and Asians.
35
141
803
108,264
Anthropic's @the_marwell says AI will transform medicine, but the U.S. urgently needs more lab space:
"I think AI is going to be the most important technology in the life sciences, certainly of our lifetime, and maybe ever.
I'm almost more concerned if we have the physical required to take advantage of this than I am about whether AI will be able to be a useful intellectual partner."
"I think AI is going to be the most important technology in the life sciences, certainly of our lifetime, and maybe ever.
I'm almost more concerned if we have the physical required to take advantage of this than I am about whether AI will be able to be a useful intellectual partner."
Over the past few months, Anthropic scientists have engaged in deep research partnerships with six organizations developing new medicines. We've also begun drug discovery efforts of our own.
In doing so, we’ve learned much more about how Claude can support the many stages of drug development.
In this blog post, we share some early results from these efforts, and describe how this work fits in with our wider ambitions in the life sciences.
anthropic.com/research/early…
1
1
4
988
"It seems like Anthropic will get to full RSI [Recursive Self Improvement] by July or August 2027...
Model progress will speed up, and it will maybe even move into places where we understand the models less."
@RayanKrishnan to @JTLonsdale and @vvkgopalan on where he sees the AI frontier heading.
Model progress will speed up, and it will maybe even move into places where we understand the models less."
@RayanKrishnan to @JTLonsdale and @vvkgopalan on where he sees the AI frontier heading.
NEW🚨 Inside the Company That Evaluates AI Labs; Who Will Reach Recursive Self-Improvement First?
@JTLonsdale & @vvkgopalan sit down with @RayanKrishnan, founder & CEO of @ValsAI
@ValsAIover:
- How Rayan used Fable to solve a 370-year-old cipher
- The science behind model evaluatiof the labs?
- Should labs self-regulate? What's the role for independent evaluators?
- Which lab will reach RSI first — and what happens next?
- How do models try to deceive evaluators?
Episode 167 out now!
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) Palantir, Machiavelli & lessons from Alex Karp
(07:50) Solving a 370-year-old cipher / Is AI making new discoveries?
(12:10) How do you measure AI abilities across finance, legal, etc?
(15:30) What is the science behind model evaluation?
(18:00) The importance of independent evaluation
(23:35) Evaluating Chinese models & addressing distillation
(26:45) Will Anthropic reach Recursive Self-Improvement first? What happens next?
(28:30) How do models try to deceive evaluators
(33:00) Why Rayan remains optimistic about AI
0
0
9
778
American Optimist retweeted
Palantir CEO Alex Karp on AI companies using fear-based marketing:
"You should read some Machiavelli. It's far better to be feared than it is to be loved."
@JTLonsdale: "It might be on purpose that Dario wants them to be feared."
Via @AmOptimistShow
"You should read some Machiavelli. It's far better to be feared than it is to be loved."
@JTLonsdale: "It might be on purpose that Dario wants them to be feared."
Via @AmOptimistShow
.@DavidSacks: Anthropic is good at two things—product releases, and scaring people.
“They have a proven pattern of using fear as a way to market their new products.”
He had Grok create a list of every time they’ve used scare tactics on the public.
“At the same time they roll lso roll out some study showing the worst possible implication of where the technology could lead.”
6
13
200
33,557
Joe Lonsdale on why capitalism works:
"When you create new things, the business usually captures only a very small part of the wealth it creates.
For example, if homes are going to cost way less because of [innovation], you get to make money from that but everyone gets a .
The money captured by businesses is much less than the amount captured by the general society, which is why capitalism works so well."
@JTLonsdale
"When you create new things, the business usually captures only a very small part of the wealth it creates.
For example, if homes are going to cost way less because of [innovation], you get to make money from that but everyone gets a .
The money captured by businesses is much less than the amount captured by the general society, which is why capitalism works so well."
@JTLonsdale
“Capitalism emerged when people began discovering that wealth could be created rather than merely captured”
3
16
142
3,835
American Optimist retweeted
I wouldn't have founded @ValsAI without first working at Palantir and Vals wouldn't be what it is without 8VC investing in our seed. @JTLonsdale was key to both.
Got to sit down with Joe and @vvkgopalan to talk about the story behind Vals, where the industry is going, and why I'm broadly optimistic while the world is incredibly high-variance.
Got to sit down with Joe and @vvkgopalan to talk about the story behind Vals, where the industry is going, and why I'm broadly optimistic while the world is incredibly high-variance.
NEW🚨 Inside the Company That Evaluates AI Labs; Who Will Reach Recursive Self-Improvement First?
@JTLonsdale & @vvkgopalan sit down with @RayanKrishnan, founder & CEO of @ValsAI
@ValsAIover:
- How Rayan used Fable to solve a 370-year-old cipher
- The science behind model evaluatiof the labs?
- Should labs self-regulate? What's the role for independent evaluators?
- Which lab will reach RSI first — and what happens next?
- How do models try to deceive evaluators?
Episode 167 out now!
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) Palantir, Machiavelli & lessons from Alex Karp
(07:50) Solving a 370-year-old cipher / Is AI making new discoveries?
(12:10) How do you measure AI abilities across finance, legal, etc?
(15:30) What is the science behind model evaluation?
(18:00) The importance of independent evaluation
(23:35) Evaluating Chinese models & addressing distillation
(26:45) Will Anthropic reach Recursive Self-Improvement first? What happens next?
(28:30) How do models try to deceive evaluators
(33:00) Why Rayan remains optimistic about AI
5
6
87
8,521
American Optimist retweeted
Vals AI CEO @RayanKrishnan tells @JTLonsdale on @AmOptimistShow that Anthropic is on track for recursive self-improvement, AI building its own successor models, by July or August 2027, with Gemini on the steepest curve. Once that happens, AI progress speeds up and the only limits gy, the same bottlenecks behind the AI capex trade on Wall Street.
Rayan Krishnan: "We have our RSI index. We're collecting a set of proxies of the work that researchers do within these labs on pre-training, post-training and harness-level engineering, and comparing to human baselines to extrapolate how far away we are from the human frontier on these research tasks. Based on our last estimates, it seems like Anthropic will get to full RSI by July or maybe August 2027."
Joe Lonsdale: "And if you look back six months ago, how far out did that seem?"
Rayan Krishnan: "Actually, the pace has been fairly uniform. It's almost a linear trend over the last year. So six months ago, the trend line was still July, June. The steepest curve has been with Gemini. I think something has changed where they've prioritized RSI, and the most recent model release is a rapid jump. There are still considerable resource constraints around chips and energy. But I think what it'll look like is that model progress will speed up, and it will maybe even move into places where we understand the models less. There's less human intervention required to build the models, and so we're not as clearly dictating how that intelligence emerges.”
Rayan Krishnan: "We have our RSI index. We're collecting a set of proxies of the work that researchers do within these labs on pre-training, post-training and harness-level engineering, and comparing to human baselines to extrapolate how far away we are from the human frontier on these research tasks. Based on our last estimates, it seems like Anthropic will get to full RSI by July or maybe August 2027."
Joe Lonsdale: "And if you look back six months ago, how far out did that seem?"
Rayan Krishnan: "Actually, the pace has been fairly uniform. It's almost a linear trend over the last year. So six months ago, the trend line was still July, June. The steepest curve has been with Gemini. I think something has changed where they've prioritized RSI, and the most recent model release is a rapid jump. There are still considerable resource constraints around chips and energy. But I think what it'll look like is that model progress will speed up, and it will maybe even move into places where we understand the models less. There's less human intervention required to build the models, and so we're not as clearly dictating how that intelligence emerges.”
0
2
5
681
NEW🚨 Inside the Company That Evaluates AI Labs; Who Will Reach Recursive Self-Improvement First?
@JTLonsdale & @vvkgopalan sit down with @RayanKrishnan, founder & CEO of @ValsAI
@ValsAIover:
- How Rayan used Fable to solve a 370-year-old cipher
- The science behind model evaluatiof the labs?
- Should labs self-regulate? What's the role for independent evaluators?
- Which lab will reach RSI first — and what happens next?
- How do models try to deceive evaluators?
Episode 167 out now!
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) Palantir, Machiavelli & lessons from Alex Karp
(07:50) Solving a 370-year-old cipher / Is AI making new discoveries?
(12:10) How do you measure AI abilities across finance, legal, etc?
(15:30) What is the science behind model evaluation?
(18:00) The importance of independent evaluation
(23:35) Evaluating Chinese models & addressing distillation
(26:45) Will Anthropic reach Recursive Self-Improvement first? What happens next?
(28:30) How do models try to deceive evaluators
(33:00) Why Rayan remains optimistic about AI
@JTLonsdale & @vvkgopalan sit down with @RayanKrishnan, founder & CEO of @ValsAI
@ValsAIover:
- How Rayan used Fable to solve a 370-year-old cipher
- The science behind model evaluatiof the labs?
- Should labs self-regulate? What's the role for independent evaluators?
- Which lab will reach RSI first — and what happens next?
- How do models try to deceive evaluators?
Episode 167 out now!
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) Palantir, Machiavelli & lessons from Alex Karp
(07:50) Solving a 370-year-old cipher / Is AI making new discoveries?
(12:10) How do you measure AI abilities across finance, legal, etc?
(15:30) What is the science behind model evaluation?
(18:00) The importance of independent evaluation
(23:35) Evaluating Chinese models & addressing distillation
(26:45) Will Anthropic reach Recursive Self-Improvement first? What happens next?
(28:30) How do models try to deceive evaluators
(33:00) Why Rayan remains optimistic about AI
4
11
75
34,596
Joe Lonsdale to Patrick Bet-David: The California wealth tax is radicalizing my rich, successful friends.
"I'm actually pretty optimistic because right now I have 70 or 80 acquaintances and friends in California who've made a lot of money and they're like, 'Joe, you were right. to fight for it.'
And they're doing all sorts of things to fight for it. They're looking at building endowments to oppose the far-left unions, to help the moderates, to help pro-growth strategies. They're looking at things to expose more of the fraud."
"I'm actually pretty optimistic because right now I have 70 or 80 acquaintances and friends in California who've made a lot of money and they're like, 'Joe, you were right. to fight for it.'
And they're doing all sorts of things to fight for it. They're looking at building endowments to oppose the far-left unions, to help the moderates, to help pro-growth strategies. They're looking at things to expose more of the fraud."
California's Billionaire Tax Act would collect roughly $30 billion. Accounting for lost income taxes from departures, the mean Net Present Value is negative $39 billion, from Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh nber.org/papers/w35899
13
25
344
15,819
Alex Karp on Bob McGrew and his role in building Project Gotham while at Palantir:
"There are very few people who could have pulled that off."
"There are very few people who could have pulled that off."
We started Arda in 2025 to speed up American manufacturing. We have spent the last year building with Anduril as our design partner. Today we are launching the company publicly on CNBC and announcing our Series A: $160M at a $1.5B valuation.
Our platform helps manufacturers design and operate manual assembly lines, putting designs into production faster now. Next we'll build automated lines that can be reconfigured as quickly as human workers, letting America make products that now require armies of workers in Asia. x.com/Kr00ney/status…
1
1
42
2,499
American Optimist retweeted
.@eglyman of Ramp tells @JTLonsdale on @AmOptimistShow that the world now spends about $150 to $170 billion a year on AI inference, up roughly 5x from $30 billion a year ago, and that's still only about 2% of the $8 trillion the US spends on white collar wages. I think the demand rlier than the capex debate assumes.
"With AI, it's quite different. One, it's growing very, very quickly. About a year ago this time, the entire world was spending on the order of $30 billion a year on inference across the major labs. Today, estimates are something closer to $150 to $170 billion per year, depending on how you measure it.
To put that in perspective, I think in the United States, there's something like $8 trillion a year spent on white collar wages, sort of back office wages. In other words, the amount spent on AI is equal to about 2% of all white collar wages. And it just went up 5x over the last year and could go up, who knows, some other multiple again.
We're a knowledge economy and information ecology. It doesn't strike me as so crazy if you were to say, hey, we spend 10% of what we bring in on thinking. You might even say, perhaps that's low. These machines are getting smarter."
"With AI, it's quite different. One, it's growing very, very quickly. About a year ago this time, the entire world was spending on the order of $30 billion a year on inference across the major labs. Today, estimates are something closer to $150 to $170 billion per year, depending on how you measure it.
To put that in perspective, I think in the United States, there's something like $8 trillion a year spent on white collar wages, sort of back office wages. In other words, the amount spent on AI is equal to about 2% of all white collar wages. And it just went up 5x over the last year and could go up, who knows, some other multiple again.
We're a knowledge economy and information ecology. It doesn't strike me as so crazy if you were to say, hey, we spend 10% of what we bring in on thinking. You might even say, perhaps that's low. These machines are getting smarter."
1
2
11
858
Brad Gerstner, architect of Trump Accounts:
70% of families in America don't have an investment account — they do not have skin in the upside of America...
This is going to be solved in one of two ways: you're either going to get bigger government programs, more fighting for n...
Or we can harness the power of free enterprise and capitalism...
We can allow them to see firsthand the power of compounding growth.
@altcap @JTLonsdale
70% of families in America don't have an investment account — they do not have skin in the upside of America...
This is going to be solved in one of two ways: you're either going to get bigger government programs, more fighting for n...
Or we can harness the power of free enterprise and capitalism...
We can allow them to see firsthand the power of compounding growth.
@altcap @JTLonsdale
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
11
92
611
19,762
SBA Administrator @KLoeffler revealed to @JTLonsdale that the PPP loan program had no citizenship check!
"A random person anywhere in the world could come and get money."
An inspector general report found hundreds of overseas IP addresses receiving PPP loans.
When fice, the SBA immediately added guardrails to end the fraud.
x.com/RyanAFournier/…
"A random person anywhere in the world could come and get money."
An inspector general report found hundreds of overseas IP addresses receiving PPP loans.
When fice, the SBA immediately added guardrails to end the fraud.
x.com/RyanAFournier/…
🚨 UNBELIEVABLE!
Audit reports expose that federal bureaucrats approved over $333 MILLION in COVID pandemic loans to applicants claiming to be over 115 YEARS OLD—and even accepted DOLL PHOTOS as valid ID!
$79 BILLION in fraud could've been stopped by checking basic records.
STOP WASTING OUR TAX DOLLARS! x.com/VigilantFox/st…
2
12
99
3,450
8VC Partner @jack_moshkovich on the problem of startups over-indexed on selling to other startups:
"One of the interesting ZIRP lessons that we learned is technology as an industry is actually more cyclical than people gave it credit to be. And a lot of the startups in that serving other technology startups.
When inevitably the venture industry went for a bit of a correction, and there was less money going on those companies' balance sheets, and they had less money to actually spend on other software products, the companies serving the customer segment actually really struggled.
There were lots of companies selling HR tools to other SaaS companies. You have to be careful what you index to."
"One of the interesting ZIRP lessons that we learned is technology as an industry is actually more cyclical than people gave it credit to be. And a lot of the startups in that serving other technology startups.
When inevitably the venture industry went for a bit of a correction, and there was less money going on those companies' balance sheets, and they had less money to actually spend on other software products, the companies serving the customer segment actually really struggled.
There were lots of companies selling HR tools to other SaaS companies. You have to be careful what you index to."
I suspect 70-80% of revenues at AI companies are from other AI companies who’ve raised money from the Venture industry.
This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem.
We’ve seen this before in the SaaS cycle in the early/mid 2010s.
0
1
33
3,806
“Why is Raytheon getting this contract when we beat them by so much??"
@JTLonsdale explains how defense procurement used to work: 300-page requirements written so startups couldn't win.
@USWREMichael explains how he's fixing it.
@JTLonsdale explains how defense procurement used to work: 300-page requirements written so startups couldn't win.
@USWREMichael explains how he's fixing it.
WATCH: Tech Force hosted a fireside chat with @USOPM Director @skupor, tech founder @JTLonsdale, and Under Secretary of War @USWREMichael on how technologists can help deliver on America’s most important missions.
1
19
146
23,210
Flashback: Years ago, Joe Lonsdale explains to Rep. Ro Khanna how a wealth tax will hurt founders and the startup ecosystem.
"A $10 million or 20 million dollar tax actually is a lot of money. I'd have to go borrow it against these [startup] companies that are very volatile. ow the money for a few years, but I'd get worried if in two or three years [the company] didn't go public."
"A $10 million or 20 million dollar tax actually is a lot of money. I'd have to go borrow it against these [startup] companies that are very volatile. ow the money for a few years, but I'd get worried if in two or three years [the company] didn't go public."
The academics think the founder who raised at $2B valuation can pay but they can’t
You are a founder who owns 50% of your company and you have 20x voting rights. You owe 5% on $10B in the asset seizure tax. You owe $500M of your paper $1B. Find me a way to get a loan for half . You cant.
The asset seizure proponents are dishonest and also it’s not a 5% tax on startups. It’s a 50% tax in this simple case.
0
4
54
2,396
Joe Lonsdale: "One red flag is being too obsessed with patents.
People think patents matter a lot. For most of these things, it's more about the team and the execution...
If you talk too much about patents, it shows you're not thinking about the thing that's valuable, which TLonsdale @PBDsPodcast
People think patents matter a lot. For most of these things, it's more about the team and the execution...
If you talk too much about patents, it shows you're not thinking about the thing that's valuable, which TLonsdale @PBDsPodcast
Elon Musk often says: "Patents are for the weak."
Why does he say that? In 2014, Tesla opened up all its patents. Anyone could use them. Everyone thought it was a PR stunt. It was actually a declaration of war. Elon's point was that patents mostly serve to slow down progress, protect the positions of giant corporations, and make lawyers rich. Not to innovate.
His logic is simple: if your competitive advantage lives inside a legal document, you're already dead. The only real moat is your speed of innovation. If you move faster than everyone else, you don't need patents. If you need patents to survive, it means you've stopped moving fast enough.
The strong build. The weak file.
And AI is about to make that sentence true for the entire economy.
Take biotech. For 50 years, starting a biotech company meant a PhD, ten years in a lab, access to closely guarded knowledge, millions before your first proof of concept, and a network in the right academic and regulatory circles. Knowledge was scarce, access was scarce, and that scarcity was worth billions.
That scarcity is dying.
I genuinely believe we're entering a world where anyone will be able to start a biotech company. A 19-year-old with AI agents will be able to explore molecular spaces that entire labs used to spend years mapping. Trade secrets, credential rents, access rents, positional rents: all of it is about to blow up.
And look at what's already happening. Some of the first calls to "urgently regulate AI agents" are coming from established biotech players. Coincidence? When your business model depends on scarce knowledge and knowledge becomes free, you're left with only two weapons: the patent and the regulator.
The two weapons of the weak.
Here's what's coming. A wave of panic. Dozens of labs and incumbents retreating behind their patents, filing lawsuits, and above all pouring money into regulatory capture. They won't try to build better. They'll try to make it illegal for anyone else to build.
Because the truth is, a lot of people in business were never strong. They were protected. They never won on product, on innovation, on speed of execution. They won because the market was locked. Because attacking their industry required hundreds of millions of dollars, years of approvals, and armies of lawyers. The wall was never their talent. The wall was regulation.
And when the wall comes down, we find out who actually knew how to build.
This isn't just biotech. Banking. Insurance. Law. Healthcare. Energy. Hardware. Education. Defense. Almost every industry where incumbents were sleeping behind barriers to entry is about to get hit by thousands of founders able to attack their business from every angle at once. With teams of 5 people and an army of agents.
Everyone gets to play now.
My conviction, and I'll say it plainly: a huge chunk of the S&P 500 could be completely flushed in the next 5 years. Not because those companies will make mistakes. Because their competitive advantage was never real. It was built on how hard it was to get in, and that difficulty is disappearing.
The weak will cry danger. They'll talk about safety, risk, disaster. Sometimes they'll be right on a specific point. But most of the time, what they're protecting isn't the public. It's their rent.
What's coming isn't a collapse. It's a renaissance. The biggest explosion of value creation in history, driven by people who were always told they weren't allowed to play.
Patents are for the weak.
And the weak are about to have a very bad decade.
2
2
33
1,752