When will deflation become a thing? I just feel like all these companies are going to eat each other...
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Oil and Bonds clearly continuing to decouple…
Did the passage of the BAAJA keep confidence in AI infrastructure spending? Will we see a bit of an unwind from the election reversal now? Especially as the Fed is talking tough this AM?
Or, yet another pattern of 2018-2019?
Did the passage of the BAAJA keep confidence in AI infrastructure spending? Will we see a bit of an unwind from the election reversal now? Especially as the Fed is talking tough this AM?
Or, yet another pattern of 2018-2019?
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I debated this concept with several realtors yesterday. It starts with them calling me saying, “We don’t want to just drop the price, and have decided to offer an incentive to drive some action, like a buy-down or something…”
Personally, I think buyer’s agents can/should pitch the concepts…but I just don’t know if consumers looking at listings understand or care about the “incentives”…
For instance, one condo is listed at $420k. They don’t want to just go to $399k and they’d rather net > $405k-$410k. They are choosing to keep the price $419,900 and offer a “$12,500 Flex Credit”.
I think they should lead the market at $399k and be done with it.
Realtors: what are you experiencing with these credits. Doesn’t work for listings? Or, is it more a strategy to discuss with your buyers when counseling them on buying in markets like this?
Personally, I think buyer’s agents can/should pitch the concepts…but I just don’t know if consumers looking at listings understand or care about the “incentives”…
For instance, one condo is listed at $420k. They don’t want to just go to $399k and they’d rather net > $405k-$410k. They are choosing to keep the price $419,900 and offer a “$12,500 Flex Credit”.
I think they should lead the market at $399k and be done with it.
Realtors: what are you experiencing with these credits. Doesn’t work for listings? Or, is it more a strategy to discuss with your buyers when counseling them on buying in markets like this?
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Has anyone jumped…just a little, when that hand comes out of nowhere and points to the “promote” buttons when you are posting? I keep meaning to screen capture it…
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Let's be honest, it's mostly not their cash. The headline should have read, "...10% of first-time homebuyers paid cash using their parents or grandparents money..."
@nardotrealtor says 10% of first-time homebuyers paid all cash in 2026, the highest share in its records. First-time buyers made up 22% of purchases in data through June, up from an all-time survey low of 21% a year earlier. na2.hubs.ly/H08T8vs0
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For what it's worth, every rate I quoted today was in the mid-to-high 6s...but mostly for FTHBs meeting LLPA waivers.
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The deals I’m seeing accepted in real estate right now are crazy.
Multiple offers being submitted…all opportunistic. Not the “you better escalate and surrender your first born”kind of multiple offers.
And they are being accepted. 2013-2015 prices. Parts of DC are shocking.
Multiple offers being submitted…all opportunistic. Not the “you better escalate and surrender your first born”kind of multiple offers.
And they are being accepted. 2013-2015 prices. Parts of DC are shocking.
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When local governments juice housing with excessive down payment assistance grants, they often inadvertently cause a micro-bubble in values.
In DC, the HPAP program gives up to $202k. I know of a section in DC where the local developers juiced prices ushering all their clients into that program. Once funding dried up, sales plummeted and are now selling > $150k cheaper. Part of that is pandemic unwind, other part is use of DPA funds.
I have two solutions:
1. There should never be a DPA that exceeds 10% of median home prices.
2. They should have a running heat map to see if it is in fact being abused by a small segment of the market.
In DC, the HPAP program gives up to $202k. I know of a section in DC where the local developers juiced prices ushering all their clients into that program. Once funding dried up, sales plummeted and are now selling > $150k cheaper. Part of that is pandemic unwind, other part is use of DPA funds.
I have two solutions:
1. There should never be a DPA that exceeds 10% of median home prices.
2. They should have a running heat map to see if it is in fact being abused by a small segment of the market.
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I expect the 2nd half of November to be the real tell of the fall selling season now that the election is behind us, and rates have been correcting. As it stands for us, we are on pace to originate 2x November 2022...the same as November 2024...and 25% less than Nov 2025.
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I remember dabbling in weekly options in '11. I was on a huge winning streak and bet very big heading into $AAPL earnings. That turned out to be when Steve Jobs announced his cancer diagnosis. I lost so much money in just one day, on one trade.
What happens w/ $NVDA from here?
What happens w/ $NVDA from here?
Nvidia's board is launching an investigation into whether Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign espionage plot after he admitted to employees that he was unfaithful to his wife bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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I need to buy a pull-up bar for the house... my youngest is preparing for her Naval Academy fitness test and said it is the one thing we need to get. Any suggestions on what is best? Are those bars that hang onto a door frame really safe?
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So few houses are selling right now, and for the past few years, most of what has sold has been higher-priced homes to people with higher incomes. I think that is skewing these numbers quite a bit.
This might be the most terrifying chart in real estate.
Median household income: $85,000.
Income needed to buy the median-priced home: $123,000.
That's a $38,000 gap - 45% MORE than the median household.
For decades, home prices and incomes moved together. Then we t.
Now we're expecting the next generation to buy homes their incomes can't support.
Who exactly is supposed to buy all these houses?
The math doesn't work. And math always wins.
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I can't help but think many of those red areas are a direct byproduct of the pandemic mobility unwinding...I worked with so many people who went all-in on Airbnbs in those areas, and cash flows looked great. Until it didn't...
Home price shift since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in mid-2022
--> @ResiClub_HQ doodles show some of the greatest concentrations of weakness since then. Not every pocket has the same story
--> TX and FL is largely downstream of the post-boom cyclical cooling (bigger boom, isiana is not (they barely saw any boom)
--> While some areas in the Bay Area are still down from peak (in particular, in condos), San Francisco proper saw some notable upward pricing pressure this year from AI wealth boom spillover. That's also starting to push into certain pockets of Marin County and Alameda County.
Follow @ResiClub_HQ
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Why do kids refuse to dress warm on freezing cold sports days?
I’m in PA for a lax tournament. It feels like 42 w 15 mph winds. Yet my kid won’t wear sweat pants or a jacket…because, you know. None of the other girls are…
Secretly every one wanting to be bundled up & warm.
I’m in PA for a lax tournament. It feels like 42 w 15 mph winds. Yet my kid won’t wear sweat pants or a jacket…because, you know. None of the other girls are…
Secretly every one wanting to be bundled up & warm.
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The key to trail running in the dark is simple…high knees…and just keep looking for the clearing…fortunately, I have several thousand miles logged in these trails so I could probably run it with my eyes closed! (I mean, I kind of just did…)
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