Thomas Abt retweeted
Criminology has a serious credibility problem. Of 9,705 articles published in 15 leading journals over 10yrs, just 3.4% used a credible causal research design. We claim to inform criminal justice policy while barely testing what works. And...
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As a former voting rights attorney, I saw this for myself: there simply is no large-scale, or even medium-scale, voting fraud. Isolated instances only, usually accidents. Makes you wonder why Trump and Republicans keeping bringing it up. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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According to preliminary estimates from @BJSgov's NCVS, violent crime declined by 25% in 2025. It's another data point joining many others indicating a massive crime drop over the past few years. bjs.ojp.gov/library/public…
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Thomas Abt retweeted
The Strongmen Are Losing
Serbia and Brazil voted on the same day, and both said no.
On Sunday, voters in two very different countries delivered the same verdict. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, who has ruled with near-absolute power for 14 years and carried Vladimir Putin's endorsement into the race, conceded defeat to the Students' List, a movement born of protests after a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in 2024 and killed 16 people. Serbians saw that tragedy for what it was: the product of corruption, cronyism and a government that answered to itself. Turnout was the highest since 2000. Vučić blamed independent media, unnamed European governments and an "American deep state." He lost anyway, by roughly half a million votes.
Hours later in Brazil, Lula da Silva came from behind to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the former president and the candidate Donald Trump welcomed to the White House this summer. It was the first time since 1985 that the first-round runner-up won Brazil's presidency. Trump's tariffs were meant as leverage over Latin America's largest economy. Instead, Brazilians treated the election as a question of sovereignty and chose not to hand their country to Washington's preferred candidate. Bolsonaro is reportedly refusing to concede, a page from a familiar playbook.
Add Hungary, where Viktor Orbán, Europe's model for illiberal democracy and a favorite of both Trump and Putin, was swept from power in April, and a pattern emerges. The strongman brand of grievance, corruption and foreign patronage is running into a wall: voters who want accountable government. Being endorsed by Putin or embraced by Trump has become a liability, not an asset.
None of these victories is guaranteed to last. Vučić's machine will not disappear overnight, Brazil remains deeply divided, and the hard work of governing starts now. But the lesson for democrats everywhere is clear. Strongmen look invincible until people show up and vote.
Israelis vote tomorrow. Americans vote in nine days.
Your vote is your voice. And it’s powerful!
Serbia and Brazil voted on the same day, and both said no.
On Sunday, voters in two very different countries delivered the same verdict. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, who has ruled with near-absolute power for 14 years and carried Vladimir Putin's endorsement into the race, conceded defeat to the Students' List, a movement born of protests after a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in 2024 and killed 16 people. Serbians saw that tragedy for what it was: the product of corruption, cronyism and a government that answered to itself. Turnout was the highest since 2000. Vučić blamed independent media, unnamed European governments and an "American deep state." He lost anyway, by roughly half a million votes.
Hours later in Brazil, Lula da Silva came from behind to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the former president and the candidate Donald Trump welcomed to the White House this summer. It was the first time since 1985 that the first-round runner-up won Brazil's presidency. Trump's tariffs were meant as leverage over Latin America's largest economy. Instead, Brazilians treated the election as a question of sovereignty and chose not to hand their country to Washington's preferred candidate. Bolsonaro is reportedly refusing to concede, a page from a familiar playbook.
Add Hungary, where Viktor Orbán, Europe's model for illiberal democracy and a favorite of both Trump and Putin, was swept from power in April, and a pattern emerges. The strongman brand of grievance, corruption and foreign patronage is running into a wall: voters who want accountable government. Being endorsed by Putin or embraced by Trump has become a liability, not an asset.
None of these victories is guaranteed to last. Vučić's machine will not disappear overnight, Brazil remains deeply divided, and the hard work of governing starts now. But the lesson for democrats everywhere is clear. Strongmen look invincible until people show up and vote.
Israelis vote tomorrow. Americans vote in nine days.
Your vote is your voice. And it’s powerful!
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Thomas Abt retweeted
Mais uma vez, foi o povo brasileiro que me mostrou que nenhum sonho é grande demais quando a gente caminha junto. ❤️🇧🇷
Foram dias incansáveis. Cada caminhada, cada ato e cada passeata foram muito mais do que momentos de campanha. Foram encontros de sonhos que se transformaram em omo o fim da jornada de trabalho 6x1.
Cada mão estendida e cada sorriso me lembravam por que dediquei minha vida à luta pelos trabalhadores e trabalhadoras deste país.
Saímos dessa caminhada mais fortes, mais unidos e mais mobilizados pela garantia de um futuro melhor.
Obrigado, Brasil, por cada abraço, cada lágrima, cada sorriso e por nunca soltar a minha mão.
Nossa história ainda tem muitas páginas bonitas para escrever.
Amanhã, dia 25 de outubro, vamos escrever mais uma delas. Juntos, pelo Brasil que a gente ama e pelo futuro que o nosso povo merece! ❤️⭐ 1️⃣3️⃣
Foram dias incansáveis. Cada caminhada, cada ato e cada passeata foram muito mais do que momentos de campanha. Foram encontros de sonhos que se transformaram em omo o fim da jornada de trabalho 6x1.
Cada mão estendida e cada sorriso me lembravam por que dediquei minha vida à luta pelos trabalhadores e trabalhadoras deste país.
Saímos dessa caminhada mais fortes, mais unidos e mais mobilizados pela garantia de um futuro melhor.
Obrigado, Brasil, por cada abraço, cada lágrima, cada sorriso e por nunca soltar a minha mão.
Nossa história ainda tem muitas páginas bonitas para escrever.
Amanhã, dia 25 de outubro, vamos escrever mais uma delas. Juntos, pelo Brasil que a gente ama e pelo futuro que o nosso povo merece! ❤️⭐ 1️⃣3️⃣
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Thomas Abt retweeted
And Brazil defeated extremism, guns, environmental destruction, militarization, democratic threat, and organized crime ruling politics. It’s not going to be easy for Lula, he will need to do a very different government, but what a beautiful mobilization of civil society
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Thomas Abt retweeted
After surging in 2020, the homicide rate fell sharply from 2022 through 2026, and it’s now at its lowest level since at least 1900.
This broad reversal has left policymakers, the media, and the public asking: Why? ⤵️
This broad reversal has left policymakers, the media, and the public asking: Why? ⤵️
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Same.
I wish people who embraced loopy crime ideas in 2019-2020 would issue groveling apologies to people who were right all along, but genuinely the most important thing about this is we have won the argument.
slowboring.com/p/dont-get-com…
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"The United States in 2026 will almost certainly have the lowest murder rate ever recorded, the lowest property crime rate ever recorded, and the lowest violent crime rate since the late 1960s." jasher.substack.com/p/crime-has-co…
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Thomas Abt retweeted
It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.
To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically.
Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country.
Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case.
Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve.
In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota.
The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically.
Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country.
Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case.
Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve.
In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota.
The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
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This article by @TahirDuckett describes a promising new development: community safety departments. I'm in favor of exploring these as long as they're understood as a complement to, and not a substitute for, traditional law enforcement. newrepublic.com/article/215910…
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Thomas Abt retweeted
Political threats and violence should be unacceptable. Today they're a fact of life. What's the pattern? Opposition to Trump - doesn't matter whether you're D or a R, if you're against him prepare for an intimidation campaign. Kudos to those standing up to this bully. nytimes.com/2026/10/11/us/…
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Political threats and violence should be unacceptable. Today they're a fact of life. What's the pattern? Opposition to Trump - doesn't matter whether you're D or a R, if you're against him prepare for an intimidation campaign. Kudos to those standing up to this bully. nytimes.com/2026/10/11/us/…
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Thomas Abt retweeted
This is a GREAT opportunity for the right person. Apply now!
The @STLCityGov Department of Public Safety is seeking a Commissioner of the Office of Violence Prevention.
This is a key leadership role in the City's implementation of Save Lives Now!
Apply here: careers.stlouis-mo.gov/careersection/…
Be sure to share this opportunity with your network!
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Thomas Abt retweeted
OUT TODAY: The U.S. has seen a dramatic, unexpected shift in homicide. After surging in 2020, the rate fell sharply from 2022-2026 and is now at its lowest level since at least 1900.
Why has homicide dropped so much, so fast, and in so many places? ⤵️
counciloncj.org/whats-driving-…
Why has homicide dropped so much, so fast, and in so many places? ⤵️
counciloncj.org/whats-driving-…
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Thomas Abt retweeted
The situation for D.C. Courts is getting dire, top officials tell me. Funding from Congress has been stagnant for four years now, while criminal cases have nearly tripled.
It's not just a budget story — this has real life consequences. One nonprofit domestic violence attorney told me her client worked up the courage to testify in court only to be yelled and sworn at by her alleged abuser. But when the judge called for security, none was available. And a packed docket meant the case was delayed anyway.
"It felt like it was retraumatizing our client and the child... it didn’t feel like they had the bandwidth to provide the safety that she needed.”
Read more here:
dc.citycast.fm/public-safety/…
It's not just a budget story — this has real life consequences. One nonprofit domestic violence attorney told me her client worked up the courage to testify in court only to be yelled and sworn at by her alleged abuser. But when the judge called for security, none was available. And a packed docket meant the case was delayed anyway.
"It felt like it was retraumatizing our client and the child... it didn’t feel like they had the bandwidth to provide the safety that she needed.”
Read more here:
dc.citycast.fm/public-safety/…
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For many Americans, the breadth and depth of Trump's corruption has fundamentally moved the goal posts for ethical and legal behavior while in office, challenging their collective ability to be and stay outraged. He has, in a sense, corrupted us all. nytimes.com/2026/10/04/us/…
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