Informationskrieg, tägliche Grauzonen-Aktivitäten, halbjährliche militärische Großmanöver rund um die Insel - Taiwan wird schon längst angegriffen.

Bei Markus Lanz erkläre ich, warum Hoffnung keine Strategie ist und Taiwan nicht fallen darf.

#WennChinaAngreift

Whilst y'all are distracted by the political chaos wrought by the midterms and NVIDIA stock tanking thanks to Jensen's indiscretions, there's been a flurry of unusual PLA buildup and activity around the waters of East Asia.

The Chinese have put more than 100 vessels out to sea arrier strike groups (CSG).

> The Liaoning CSG completely circled the Philippines 🇵🇭 and is now conducting exercises out in the pacific

> The Fujian, China's newest carrier, has been seen out in the South China sea, photographed yesterday showing a full aircraft complement on deck (see below)

Beijing appears to be conducting what is one of the largest naval exercises in Chinese history and the first time we've seen multiple Chinese CSGs out to sea beyond their immediate coast.

China 🇨🇳 maintains it is routine and not aimed at any country (😉), though it has a pattern of timing military pressure around political calendars for psychological, opportunistic effect.

Whether the Chinese activity was deliberately timed to US political distraction or perceived weakness is up for interpretation. The deployments started well before election day and align with routine seasonal training cycles plus the need to work up Fujian and practice multi-carrier operations.

At the same time, conducting a large, relatively unpublicized deployment while the US 🇺🇸 was distracted with elections and the Iran War fits patterns of probing attention and response.

Taiwan 🇹🇼 also faces local elections later in November, another potential factor in the broader gray zone pressure.

Generally these exercises are for practice with a layer of signaling and testing.

Huge breaking news from Lithuania today.

Local media reports that the government asked Taiwan to change the name of the de facto embassy in Vilnius in September. They asked that the name be changed by China's National Day, October 1.

Pekings gegenwärtiges - nicht offen deklariertes - militärisches Großmanöver rund um #Taiwan unterstreicht, wovor ich im April bei #Lanz bereits gewarnt habe. Wir schlafwandeln gerade in die nächste große geopolitische Krise #WennChinaAngreift

Minulý týden jsem se vrátil z pracovní cesty na Taiwan. A víte, co je pikantní? Že už během doby, kdy jsem tam byl, mi přišel email z mise Čínské lidové republiky při EU. V mailu se píše, že mám ctít "princip jedné Číny" - v podstatě šlo o výhrůžku, co mám jako jezdit na Taiwan. k zcela odmítám. Na Taiwan jsem jel proto, že kultivuju vztahy s těmi, a nimiž je to vzájemně výhodné. Z čínských investic v Česku zůstaly jen sliby.

Zur Zeit ist gerade Wahlkampf in Taipeh. Peking lässt die Muskeln spielen.
Gleichzeitig steuert Russland auf eine Niederlage in der Ukraine zu. Hat Xi Angst, dass sich das Fenster der Möglichkeiten bald schließen wird?

Empfehle das Szenario „Wenn China angreift“ von @AMFChina

Lin Te-wang (林德旺), the founder and chairman of the Taiwan People's Communist Party, has been detained incommunicado on suspicion of accepting funding and instructions from China to run in a local election.

Lin was found to have accepted instructions and funding from the CCP (太南里) chief in Tainan's Xinying District.

After questioning Lin, prosecutors sought to detain him on suspicion of violating the Anti-Infiltration Act and Election and Recall Act, citing concerns he could flee or collude with others to destroy evidence, the office said.

The Tainan District Court granted the request and prohibited him from having outside contact.

According to the prosecutors office, the investigation was the result of it joining forces with the Hsinchu District Prosecutors Office after each received information indicating overseas forces had sought to influence Taiwan's Nov 28 elections for local offices.

The joint task force carried out simultaneous searches on Nov 6, questioning 13 suspects in Tainan and one suspect, along with nine witnesses, in Hsinchu.

Beyond its alleged findings of links between the CCP and Lin, who founded the Taiwan People's Communist Party in 2017, the task force also accused him of directing party Central Committee member Chen Zhen-zhou (陳震宙) to run for Wuling Ward chief in Hsinchu City's North District.

Lin was suspected of violating the Anti-Infiltration Act by accepting instructions and funding from an infiltration source, namely China, to run in the election and subsequently direct and fund Chen's campaign, local media reported.

According to prosecutors, the two men also repeatedly recruited eligible voters to travel to China, where they received all-expenses-paid hospitality in what authorities suspect was an attempt to buy votes, which would violate the Election and Recall Act.

Prosecutors also sought to detain Chen, but the Hsinchu District Court ordered him released on NT$50,000 (US$1,525) bail but required him to remain at a registered residence.

The Hsinchu District Prosecutors Office is expected to file an appeal against the ruling.

The remaining suspects and witnesses were released pending further investigation.

focustaiwan.tw/society/202611…

@AMFChina warnt uns vor der Lage um China und Taiwan, wie @DrBabst, @ConStelz, @ClaudMajor, @Woidelko, @CarloMasala1, @jcbehrends, @GresselGustav usw. vor der Lage Russland und die Ukraine. Wann handelt die Politik!

Vielleicht ladet ihr mal @AMFChina ein @ronzheimer & @fpiatov, passend zu seinem Buch

👇👇👇

🚨 中国在168小时内刚刚采取了5项行动。全部围绕台湾。没有一项有名称。

而没有人把这些点联系起来。

行动1：100多艘中国军舰和海警船遍布西太平洋。
台湾11月3日表示，它们已经部署到位。
来自3个战区的4个特混编队横亘在台湾与关岛之间。
一道隔开台湾与其朋友的墙。
宁舰编队位于菲律宾海。
最新的福建舰于11月2日驶离海南，向东航行。
第三艘山东舰于11月1日出坞，进行海试。
航母已经出动。

行动3：仅11月2日一天，中国军机就出动49架次。
其中36架次在台湾岛以南飞行。
天空也加入了海上的行动。

行动4：第二道、更近的包围圈。
至少6艘海警船，外加海军舰艇，环绕台湾本岛。
截至今天早上6点：10艘中国海军舰艇和3艘公务船。
包围圈仍然在那里。

行动5：没有宣布。没有名称。
北京为其最近4次围台大规模演习都起了名称。
ISW：这可能表明中国能够随心所欲地从空中和海上切断台湾与外界的联系。

在这一切之前：
巴基斯坦对所有台湾航空公司关闭了领空。
4艘中国科考船在连接台湾与世界的海底电缆上方停留或减速。

把这些点联系起来：

100多艘舰船 = 关岛之前的一道墙
2艘航母出动 = 外圈
49架次 = 天空中的包围圈
环岛舰船 = 内圈
没有名称 = 下一次没有任何预警

这不是混乱。
这是一场封锁演练。

一艘接一艘。
一圈接一圈。
无需入侵。

一场没有名称的演习就没有结束日期。
台湾每天早上公布新的舰船数量，而我发布动向。关注我，看下一道包围圈如何形成。

Informationskrieg, tägliche Grauzonen-Aktivitäten, halbjährliche militärische Großmanöver rund um die Insel - Taiwan wird schon längst angegriffen.

Bei Markus Lanz erkläre ich, warum Hoffnung keine Strategie ist und Taiwan nicht fallen darf.

#WennChinaAngreift

Pekings gegenwärtiges - nicht offen deklariertes - militärisches Großmanöver rund um #Taiwan unterstreicht, wovor ich im April bei #Lanz bereits gewarnt habe. Wir schlafwandeln gerade in die nächste große geopolitische Krise #WennChinaAngreift

🚨 China may be conducting a major, unannounced military exercise that simulates surrounding and isolating Taiwan. China likely aims to demonstrate that it can cut Taiwan off from air and sea during a conflict, eroding Taiwanese confidence in its ability to resist Chinese over 100 PLAN and CCG vessels were operating in the West Pacific. Data appears to show two main PLAN and CCG concentrations located between Taiwan and its principal partners, simulating isolation operations. The first concentration consists of 4 task forces from 3 different PLA theater commands operating between Taiwan and Guam, including the Liaoning carrier strike group, which moved to the West Pacific via the Basilan Strait in the Philippines between Oct 23 and 26. The second concentration includes at least 6 CCG vessels and an unspecified number of PLAN vessels surrounding Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected 49 air sorties around Taiwan on Nov 2, an unusually high number that included 36 sorties south of Taiwan that may have flown to support the four task forces operating in the West Pacific. Satellite imagery from Nov 2 detected the PLAN’s most advanced aircraft carrier Fujian leaving its base in Sanya, Hainan, due east, possibly toward southern Taiwan. Satellite imagery of Sanya Naval Base suggests that at least three other major surface combatants left the base between Oct 26 and Nov 2. These deployments represent a significant portion of the PLAN’s combat power, including 2 of its 3 carriers and at least 4 of its 10 guided-missile cruisers.

The scale of these deployments suggests that the PLA is conducting a major exercise that simulates isolating Taiwan. The number of vessels involved and the geographic range of their deployment are greater than the PLA’s most recent exercise around Taiwan — Justice Mission 2025. The coordination of surface forces from the Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands is rare. Major PLA exercises targeting Taiwan since 2022 have largely centered around the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, the organization primarily responsible for Taiwan-focused operations. The presence of 4 major surface groups beyond the first island chain from 3 separate theater commands could represent an effort to coordinate the principal surface combatants of all three coastal theater commands in a single far-seas operation. The positioning of major PLAN combatants in the West Pacific, between Guam and Taiwan, and combined PLAN and CCG forces conducting a closer encirclement of Taiwan also follow patterns from previous PLA exercises. Strait Thunder 2025a, for instance, involved an “inner” encirclement of Taiwan alongside a carrier strike group operating between Taiwan and Guam. The recent PLAN maneuvers could improve the PLA’s ability to effectively deter or prevent outside forces from reaching Taiwan during a contingency by preparing its coastal theater commands to coordinate their forces during such an operation.

China’s decision to not announce a major exercise departs from recent precedent and may aim to create the impression that the PLA can isolate Taiwan at will. China normally announces and names major military exercises targeted against Taiwan and has done so for the last four such exercises. China may seek to represent the presence of its forces surrounding Taiwan and in the West Pacific as routine, rather than exceptional. China may also aim to demonstrate an ability to rapidly transition from a peacetime posture to combat operations, decreasing the time adversaries have to detect PLA preparations for a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. The PLA’s recent movements around Taiwan and throughout the West Pacific likely serve as the preparation for a real isolation campaign while creating informational effects that erode Taiwan’s confidence in its own defense / in US willingness to come to its aid and the ability of its allies and partners to support it.

understandingwar.org/research/china…

“Tell them we will declare him *persona non grata*.”

🇯🇵 Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issued this instruction during a meeting with Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and senior officials from 🇯🇵 Ministry of Foreign Affairs in mid-Nov last year, about a week after her n Taiwan at the Lower House Budget Committee on Nov 7. She was referring to 🇨🇳 Xue Jian (薛剑), China’s Consul General in Osaka, who had reacted to the Prime Minister’s remarks by posting on social media: "There is no choice but to cut off that filthy head."

The Prime Minister directed that the Chinese side be informed that unless Xue was recalled promptly, he would be declared *persona non grata* and expelled.

However, the plan did not go as expected. When Masaaki Kanai, Director-General of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau at the Japanese Foreign Ministry, met with his Chinese counterpart, Liu Jinsong (刘劲松; then Director-General of the Asian Affairs Department at 🇨🇳 Ministry of Foreign Affairs), in Beijing to convey that Japan was considering the expulsion, Liu responded by naming Japanese Consuls General stationed in China and warning: "If you expel one of ours, we will expel two of yours."

The Japanese side had envisioned a scenario in which the expulsion of Xue would result in the expulsion of one Japanese Consul General from China — a "mutual loss" that would effectively settle the matter. However, China responded with a "double-fold" retaliation. Upon being briefed, the Prime Minister decided against expelling any Chinese officials. This decision was driven by concerns that a cycle of retaliation would lead to a further deterioration in bilateral relations; it was, in the words of a Japanese government official, "a last-ditch judgment to keep the door open for dialogue."

yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20261…

chosun.com/english/world-…

Very important! China has been practicing blockades in the Pacific for years, including with its maritime militia.

As the post indicates below, the PLA is currently surrounding Taiwan with Naval, Coast Guard and air power. We need to prepare for potential escalation.

Major Chinese Naval Exercise Underway

Involving over 100 vessels from all three Chinese fleets (East Sea, South Sea and North Sea) is unusual and a significant development. Additionally troubling is that the exercise was not announced as has been the norm.

And the current mmand has warned that such exercises/drills can be cover for future hostile action: defenseone.com/threats/2025/0…

See the ISW report here for more: understandingwar.org/research/china…

Read here for why this isn’t unexpected and how to ensure deterrence sustained: amazon.com/Naval-Power-Ac…

A shocking crime in Kraków. On behalf of the Ukrainian people, and personally, I extend my sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims. There can be no justification for this attack, and we trust the perpetrator will face justice.

We wish strength and a speedy recovery to the injured and to everyone affected by this tragedy. Ukraine stands in solidarity with Poland and the Polish people. People have the right to safety.

🚨 NEW: The Government's "Black Sky" contingency plans for a national water or power blackout

- Around 100 BBC staff would be deployed to run an emergency RM radio studio stocked with enough food, water and fuel to keep it running for 3 days

- The BBC would broadcast scripts through the studio, including how to ration water, what to do if toilets stop working and which food to eat first (see scripts below)

- Radio masts would switch to diesel generators to keep broadcasts going for up to 72 hours without electricity

- BBC teams would use satellite phones to stay in contact, with agreed meeting points and backup arrangements if those phones stop working

- They would also report from emergency centres across the UK using satellite-equipped BBC vehicles to help keep information flowing to the public

- Emergency services would have alternative ways to communicate if mobile phone networks stopped working

- The Government is putting £70m towards aircraft that could restore mobile phone and internet coverage across the UK for over a week

Drodzy polscy przyjaciele,
Wyrazy głębokiego współczucia dla ofiar zamachu w Krakowie.
Jesteśmy z Wami!