The Midterms came and went, but what happens next for the Markets overall and for Bitcoin?
The data from 70+ years of midterms (19) gives us a pretty clear answer; here is what I found.
First, midterm years are tough for markets, with October being the worst month of the year.
The data from 70+ years of midterms (19) gives us a pretty clear answer; here is what I found.
First, midterm years are tough for markets, with October being the worst month of the year.
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And while the S&P 500 is showing modest gains on the year, if you peek under the hood, it looks much different.
- 34% of stocks are in a bear market
- 27% are close, down 10-20%
- 39% are within 10% of their high
Bitcoin also historically has a rough year and is currently about 11% better than previous midterms)
But... what does history show us about what comes next?
- 34% of stocks are in a bear market
- 27% are close, down 10-20%
- 39% are within 10% of their high
Bitcoin also historically has a rough year and is currently about 11% better than previous midterms)
But... what does history show us about what comes next?
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It's what comes next that's interesting.
19 for 19, or 100% of the time, the markets were higher 3, 6, and 12 months after.
With a 12 month avg gain of 14.7%, regardless of who won, if it was divided or unified.
And Bitcoin doesn't have the history but still has an avg gain are bad because markets hate uncertainty, and once we are past them, they take off.
my base case it this 19 for 19 odds continue, and it's "not different this time"
19 for 19, or 100% of the time, the markets were higher 3, 6, and 12 months after.
With a 12 month avg gain of 14.7%, regardless of who won, if it was divided or unified.
And Bitcoin doesn't have the history but still has an avg gain are bad because markets hate uncertainty, and once we are past them, they take off.
my base case it this 19 for 19 odds continue, and it's "not different this time"
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The Trump Admin posted about the Reformation, the first US president to do so in almost 90 years, posting about an event that changed the world 500 years ago.
And 500 years from now, there will be presidents posting about the bitcoin white paper which will be seen as world t.
And 500 years from now, there will be presidents posting about the bitcoin white paper which will be seen as world t.
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Exactly this!
But the inheritance cannot just be the assets, it’s has to be the machine and system that built the wealth, the value system that governed it and the rules to keep it.
But the inheritance cannot just be the assets, it’s has to be the machine and system that built the wealth, the value system that governed it and the rules to keep it.
declining your children an inheritance instead of raising them to understand and manage wealth is pure sadistic anti human behaviour
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It makes sense Bitcoin and Crypto were the first to be attacked with AI,
And it’s important to understand none of these attacks could attack Bitcoin, only custody’s solutions.
My custody solutions are multi prong.
My self custody sits in multi sig, too much risk in key manufacturer concentration
I also have BTC in some non custodial accounts.
I also have some in ETFs using previous investment capital that was better suited for this exposure
The point being, similar to how you have more than 1 location you hold your fiat and fiat assets, a decentralized approach to BTC ownership also makes sense.
And it’s important to understand none of these attacks could attack Bitcoin, only custody’s solutions.
My custody solutions are multi prong.
My self custody sits in multi sig, too much risk in key manufacturer concentration
I also have BTC in some non custodial accounts.
I also have some in ETFs using previous investment capital that was better suited for this exposure
The point being, similar to how you have more than 1 location you hold your fiat and fiat assets, a decentralized approach to BTC ownership also makes sense.
Everyday is Zeroday
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The infrastructure for Bitcoin continues to get built.
OG Bitcoiners won’t like Google’s entry but to “cross the chasm” and get the Early Majority and eventually the Late Majority in, this is what will happen.
More on-ramps, more security = more users and more adoption.
OG Bitcoiners won’t like Google’s entry but to “cross the chasm” and get the Early Majority and eventually the Late Majority in, this is what will happen.
More on-ramps, more security = more users and more adoption.
JUST IN: Google unveils a new crypto custody framework to protect digital assets for banks 👀
"Several major financial institutions are already testing it, and Google plans to open it up early next year as stolen private keys has cost the crypto industry billions." 👏
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Before you build or invest, know answer these 6 questions.
I was invited to be a guest judge on the @cypher_tank in Lugano Switzerland this week…
Real founders, building in the Bitcoin ecosystem with real capital, and deals closing live.
After a decade VC investing, 6 years here’s 6 quick filters I use before I invest in a company,
I run it through my "Deal Box."
6 question filter before deeper research:
1. What problem is it solving, why does someone urgently need this
2. Who's the customer, B2B, B2C, how is it being positioned
3. TAM: how big is the addressable market, what's the demand
4. Opportunity switch: does it SOLVE the problem with a new unique mechanism, or just improve it? Improvements don't scale.
5. The technical: how does it actually work, what's the mechanic that makes it defensible
6. Liquidity: is there a credible path to capital coming out. Buyout or listing. How do we get our money back.
Then two filters that kill most of what's left:
Timeframe: most venture is a 5-7 yr lockup, BTC deals are often much longer. I don't want to that long so looking at deals that have shorter runways.
PMF: I want to see some proof of product market fit, if it's still just an idea with no product-market fit, pass.
In 2026 anyone can vibe-code an MVP and test real demand. Selling the product is the founder's job, I don't want my capital spent discovering whether it sells.
Show me you already know the market.
Out of dozens and dozens of deals over 3 days and everything pitched, only 3 fell inside my deal box. The rest got filtered out quickly.
Of course there are many more decisions that need to be made…
These are just my quick filters to move through deal flow fast, so I can go deep on the few that actually fit the box.
Then we dig into:
Team, terms and economics.
Whether you’re a builder or investor, you need to know your own Deal Box.
I was invited to be a guest judge on the @cypher_tank in Lugano Switzerland this week…
Real founders, building in the Bitcoin ecosystem with real capital, and deals closing live.
After a decade VC investing, 6 years here’s 6 quick filters I use before I invest in a company,
I run it through my "Deal Box."
6 question filter before deeper research:
1. What problem is it solving, why does someone urgently need this
2. Who's the customer, B2B, B2C, how is it being positioned
3. TAM: how big is the addressable market, what's the demand
4. Opportunity switch: does it SOLVE the problem with a new unique mechanism, or just improve it? Improvements don't scale.
5. The technical: how does it actually work, what's the mechanic that makes it defensible
6. Liquidity: is there a credible path to capital coming out. Buyout or listing. How do we get our money back.
Then two filters that kill most of what's left:
Timeframe: most venture is a 5-7 yr lockup, BTC deals are often much longer. I don't want to that long so looking at deals that have shorter runways.
PMF: I want to see some proof of product market fit, if it's still just an idea with no product-market fit, pass.
In 2026 anyone can vibe-code an MVP and test real demand. Selling the product is the founder's job, I don't want my capital spent discovering whether it sells.
Show me you already know the market.
Out of dozens and dozens of deals over 3 days and everything pitched, only 3 fell inside my deal box. The rest got filtered out quickly.
Of course there are many more decisions that need to be made…
These are just my quick filters to move through deal flow fast, so I can go deep on the few that actually fit the box.
Then we dig into:
Team, terms and economics.
Whether you’re a builder or investor, you need to know your own Deal Box.
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Bitcoin security, nation state adoption and AI. Always love catching up with Sampson!
They are live right now. 🎤
Catch @Excellion and @1MarkMoss on the Mempool Stage at @LuganoPlanB.
Grab a seat on the floor if you are here, or tune in from anywhere in the world. 👇
rumble.com/v7h94wi-live-f…
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We’ve been buying bitcoin as protection from the existing economy but what if, the bigger opportunity is bitcoin in the new economy
Bitcoin, machines and the future of mining! ⚡
🎤 WAGMI: @1MarkMoss explores “Why Bitcoin Wins the Machine Economy.”
🎤 P2P: Gio presents “MDK: Building the Foundation for the Future of Mining Tools.”
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El Salvador led by @nayibbukele out there “Just Doing Things”
🚨 ACTUALIZACIÓN Y ALERTA MÁXIMA EN HAITÍ 🚨
Fuentes en el terreno me confirman el colapso y la desesperación de las bandas criminales ante la llegada de las fuerzas especiales de El Salvador en Croix-des-Bouquets.
1. COLAPSO DE FACCIÓN CLAVE: Tras una oleada de ataques tácticos con drones y fuego pesado, la base operativa de "Chen Mechan" (aliado crucial en la estructura criminal de la llanura) fue destruida por completo. Su facción ya no existe en la zona.
🩸 2. BAJAS MASIVAS EN LA BANDA DE LANMÒ: La organización de Lanmò San Jou sufrió pérdidas masivas de soldados en los últimos enfrentamientos. El volumen de bajas es tan alto que sus refugios médicos improvisados colapsaron por completo.
🏥 3. INTENTO DE SECUESTRO A MÉDICOS: Ante la desesperación por la cantidad de heridos graves, comandos armados intentaron secuestrar personal médico en el Centro Hospitalario de Santo 22 y en el hospital Sainte Camille para obligarlos a atender a sus hombres bajo amenaza de muerte.
La situación es de extrema volatilidad, las batallas son cuerpo a cuerpo y en el terreno.
Que Dios bendiga a los héroes salvadoreños en la misión más compleja que han tenido que enfrentar.
Pronto más info en 👇
youtube.com/cesarmorenook
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McKinsey projects up to $5 T of Agentic commerce by 2030, and gave us a framework and the steps to get there.
6 distinct tiers of agentic involvement:
- Level 0 (No Automation): The human manually searches, compares, and purchases items.
- Level 1 (Assisted Discovery): AI answers basic search questions.
- Level 2 (Active Curation): AI actively monitors preferences, filters choices, and builds personalized shopping carts.
- Level 3 (Conditional Autonomy): AI acts as a trusted advisor, preparing options and asking, "I found the best match. Should I buy it?"
We've cleared these levels in less than 4 years; what's left?
- Level 4 (High Autonomy): AI manages routine purchases entirely on its own (e.g., auto-replenishing household goods) within set budgets.
were pretty close to this level now
- Level 5 (Full Autonomy / Pure A2A): Your personal agent continuously interacts with brand agents to negotiate custom bundles, dynamic pricing, and optimal logistics without you ever getting involved.
we have real economic actors in need of and creating their own economic system, one built for machines
6 distinct tiers of agentic involvement:
- Level 0 (No Automation): The human manually searches, compares, and purchases items.
- Level 1 (Assisted Discovery): AI answers basic search questions.
- Level 2 (Active Curation): AI actively monitors preferences, filters choices, and builds personalized shopping carts.
- Level 3 (Conditional Autonomy): AI acts as a trusted advisor, preparing options and asking, "I found the best match. Should I buy it?"
We've cleared these levels in less than 4 years; what's left?
- Level 4 (High Autonomy): AI manages routine purchases entirely on its own (e.g., auto-replenishing household goods) within set budgets.
were pretty close to this level now
- Level 5 (Full Autonomy / Pure A2A): Your personal agent continuously interacts with brand agents to negotiate custom bundles, dynamic pricing, and optimal logistics without you ever getting involved.
we have real economic actors in need of and creating their own economic system, one built for machines
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Fidelity manages $20T and has always been early to the Bitcoin game… they see what’s coming next
$150t securitized fixed income is starting to move
$150t securitized fixed income is starting to move
A new source of BTC demand is emerging.
BTC-focused perpetual preferred stocks have accumulated more than 135,000 BTC in just over a year, despite representing only a fraction of the global fixed income market.
What could happen if adoption expands?
🔗 Read our latest AkMvHQD9Ma
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Tether launched in 2014, for this very reason, to allow the user to avoid the fiat on/off ramps and stay in crypto rail.
The tether white paper and descriptions explicitly listed advantages over traditional fiat banking, stating:
“Transact in USD value pseudonymously without middlemen”
The state has control over fiat rails, but game
Over once the world moves to stables.
The tether white paper and descriptions explicitly listed advantages over traditional fiat banking, stating:
“Transact in USD value pseudonymously without middlemen”
The state has control over fiat rails, but game
Over once the world moves to stables.
JUST IN: 🇫🇷 France's parliament advances legislation to impose 31.4% capital gains tax on crypto-to-stablecoin transactions.
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The Battle for the Fate of Humanity seems hyperbolic, but…
read this thread, read what @DataRepublican has put out, and then think through the 3rd, 4th and 5th order effects of this
read this thread, read what @DataRepublican has put out, and then think through the 3rd, 4th and 5th order effects of this
🚨 🚨🚨 I think we're living through a civilizational turning point. And most people haven't realized it yet. 🚨🚨🚨
We keep hearing that the globalist project is collapsing. It isn't. It's alive and well in the European Union, where Brussels keeps marching on as if nothing happened. And in the United States, it didn't die. It mutated.
If you want to see what that mutation looks like, read what DataRepublican just published. According to the audio and the thousands of documents she scraped, a network of former USAID and State Department officials, organized under a group called Renew to Thrive, is working on what they call "the day after tomorrow": what a rewritten American government should look like.
And they're not alone. She reports that this group sits inside a much larger, extremely discreet umbrella, the United Democracy Alliance, which coordinates the major "resistance" NGOs: when protests get deployed, on what timeline, how to respond. Operationalized, according to her, by an organization of 1,600 former military, intelligence and diplomatic officials.
The most chilling part: they've reportedly drafted a list of "red lines" past which the elected federal government should be declared illegitimate. The one they discuss most is invoking the Insurrection Act. And the mechanism doesn't even require governors to sign anything. They just have to refuse federal troops in their state and let the network do the rest.
Senator Mike Lee said he was speechless. Elon replied with one word: "Troubling."
Understand this: for these people, it isn't politics anymore. It's survival. They lost power at the ballot box, so they're building the machinery to contest the very legitimacy of the people who won. Their influence, their networks, their money, their impunity, everything they've built over decades depends on getting back in. So they're going all in.
And this fight is happening at the most decisive moment in human history: the arrival of superintelligence.
Whoever controls the state when AI surpasses humans won't just win an election. They'll win the century.
I only see two scenarios.
Scenario one: the Democrats take back power. Remember what Elon said in 2024: "If he loses, I'm f*cked. How long do you think my prison sentence is going to be?" Everyone laughed. Read those documents again and tell me he was joking. If a movement that pre-writes the criteria for declaring an elected government illegitimate comes back to power, there's a very strong chance Elon gets persecuted. Him, X, and everyone who dared to speak up.
And the world that follows is 1984 with GPUs. A hyper-class owning all the means of production: AI, robots, data, energy. The rest of humanity locked into a form of techno-feudal slavery, on a drip, surveilled, docile. Communism always promised equality and delivered a nomenklatura. With AI, the nomenklatura won't even need the people anymore.
Scenario two: Elon wins with the Republicans. And this deathly project gets dismantled. Not reformed, not slowed down. Dismantled. Every network, every unelected structure, brought into the light. And we finally do what history never had the courage to do: the Nuremberg of communism. The great moral and historical trial of an ideology that killed tens of millions of people and is still trying to sneak back in through the back door.
There is no third way. No lukewarm scenario. The coming decade will decide.
Pick your side while you still have the right to.
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