这样下去的话，下半年内存价格还会涨
但不会像前面那么猛，变成慢慢往上走
明年厂家新增产能有限，供不应求的情况缓解不了多少 #内存
这次的行情会比较长，价格大概率在高位来回晃，不会一下子掉下来
另外他们做的那种比较老但还在用的SLC闪存，行情也会一直好到2027年年底
但不会像前面那么猛，变成慢慢往上走
明年厂家新增产能有限，供不应求的情况缓解不了多少 #内存
这次的行情会比较长，价格大概率在高位来回晃，不会一下子掉下来
另外他们做的那种比较老但还在用的SLC闪存，行情也会一直好到2027年年底
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#德明利 涨停，#佰维存储 大幅反弹，#内存 芯片有站稳迹象
从 芯存比（全球计算芯片和内存企业总市值比例）来看，经粗略估算，目前回落至0.4-0.5之间；历史相对比例为0.6-0.8。
看来，差不多了。我开干 #SK海力士。
从 芯存比（全球计算芯片和内存企业总市值比例）来看，经粗略估算，目前回落至0.4-0.5之间；历史相对比例为0.6-0.8。
看来，差不多了。我开干 #SK海力士。
另类视角：从 #芯存比 看 #内存 #HBM 的上涨空间
历史上，PC时代和移动互联网时代
内存企业的总市值和处理器企业的总市值
一直维持在一个相对稳定的区间内波动：
内存≈0.6-0.8处理器
这有科学道理吗？没有；
有法律/协议约定吗？也没有。
但这大概率是一个社会学的约定俗成：
蛋糕的切割和分配方式，社会和业界默契
谁也不能多占，谁也不愿吃亏
这种现象不仅存在于芯片内存
也存在于其它领域：如金银比/金铜比
不断地在历史长河中微妙地起着作用
那么，现在内存企业总市值是多少？
我们算算：
全球三大内存巨头
美光科技 (Micron)最新总市值：首次突破 1万亿美元。
近期表现：受益于其在美国本土量产先进内存芯片以及AI服务器需求的暴涨，股价在过去一年里翻了8倍。
SK海力士 (SK Hynix)最新总市值：达到 1.08万亿美元（约1624万亿韩元）。
近期表现：作为英伟达（NVIDIA）AI芯片的核心供应商，其高带宽内存（HBM）供不应求，今年以来股价累计暴涨近250%。
三星电子 (Samsung)最新总市值：超过 1.1万亿美元（前两周率先进入万亿美元俱乐部，但市值包含其它业务）。
近期表现：今年第一季度净利润同比大增8倍，全年利润预计有十倍的增幅。
如果加上长鑫闪迪等，现在总市值3万亿+美元
处理器呢？我们也来看看：
全球三大算力巨头市值榜英伟达 (NVIDIA) —— 全球GPU绝对霸主最新总市值：5.18万亿美元。
AMD (超威半导体) —— GPU与CPU双引擎最新总市值：8448亿美元。
英特尔 (Intel) —— 传统CPU王者转型最新总市值：6076亿美元。
三家总市值6.6万亿
芯存比≈0.5，离0.6-0.8已经不远，但还略有空间
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#内存 #DRAM #DDR5 #挖矿
装机佬的噩梦、DDR5内存条再创新高、各大平台D5内存条 32G套条价格再次突破3000+、一线品牌突破4000+
咸鱼16G单根均价1200+、如果RECC ECC内存条价格则还要贵上50%-100%、
这样的价格让各大矿佬叫苦不休、我们来算一笔账；
存条成本要20000元附近、如果在25年初只需要4000块左右。
如果你要配一台游戏机、16G*2根普条则需要2500元、在25年初只需要600块、
显卡价格也好不到哪里去、4090依旧2.3W+稳如老狗、
反而D5主板一降再降、intel和AMD干脆直接懒得发布新款处理器、直接发布前两代产品修修糊弄。
甚至你可以看到5800X3D比7800X3D卖的贵、你也能看到AMD继续上线5系7系这种上代产物。
数码圈变的越来越抽象、厂家钱包越来越鼓、消费者的钱包越来越薄！
装机佬的噩梦、DDR5内存条再创新高、各大平台D5内存条 32G套条价格再次突破3000+、一线品牌突破4000+
咸鱼16G单根均价1200+、如果RECC ECC内存条价格则还要贵上50%-100%、
这样的价格让各大矿佬叫苦不休、我们来算一笔账；
存条成本要20000元附近、如果在25年初只需要4000块左右。
如果你要配一台游戏机、16G*2根普条则需要2500元、在25年初只需要600块、
显卡价格也好不到哪里去、4090依旧2.3W+稳如老狗、
反而D5主板一降再降、intel和AMD干脆直接懒得发布新款处理器、直接发布前两代产品修修糊弄。
甚至你可以看到5800X3D比7800X3D卖的贵、你也能看到AMD继续上线5系7系这种上代产物。
数码圈变的越来越抽象、厂家钱包越来越鼓、消费者的钱包越来越薄！
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1,647
Is memory no longer a blind buy? Morgan Stanley: OEMs > module makers, DRAM > NAND
In its global technology research report released on July 2, Morgan Stanley revised its NAND supply-demand outlook. The firm projects a 60% year-over-year surge in AI-driven NAND demand by 2027, which a 9% supply deficit in the worldwide market. While supply shortages will continue, the market's tightness will become more selective rather than widespread.
Crucially, demand trends are diverging. While server and AI sectors remain strong—shielded from price drops by long-term agreements (LTAs)—the consumer segment is hitting a price ceiling. Inventories are climbing for distributors and module manufacturers, and the smartphone and PC sectors are experiencing squeezed margins and lower sales volumes. In fact, actual order reductions have already started following price increases in the second quarter of 2026.
Consequently, investors should re-evaluate their positioning across the memory supply chain. From a tactical standpoint, DRAM outperforms NAND because of stronger long-term agreement (LTA) terms, clearer demand visibility, and strict supply limits tied to EUV capacity constraints. Additionally, potential HBM4E production could crowd out conventional DRAM supply. Within the NAND space, Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) are a safer bet than module makers due to their superior profit resilience and tighter control over supply.
AI demand remains the dominant driver, with NAND shortages extending into 2027
AI-specific NAND demand is forecast to jump from 205 EB in 2025 to 400 EB in 2026, reaching 609 EB by 2027. Consequently, AI's share of the overall NAND market will expand from 18% to 32%, and ultimately hit 41% over those three years.
On a macro level, total global NAND demand is projected to scale from 1,111 EB (2025) to 1,250 EB (2026), and top out at 1,484 EB in 2027. With projected supply at 1,128 EB, 1,058 EB, and 1,347 EB for those respective years, the market will shift from a 2% surplus in 2025 to severe deficits of -15% in 2026 and -9% in 2027.
These projections demonstrate that the industry's supply crunch is far from over. Even with an anticipated 27% year-over-year recovery in production by 2027, the influx of new capacity will be largely consumed by enterprise SSDs, AI servers, QLC storage, and CSP inventory cushions. Nevertheless, this does not mean NAND prices will climb indefinitely. A sharp divide has formed between AI and consumer demand; while shortages remain tightly focused on the server and AI sectors, consumer-grade products are hitting a wall regarding further price hikes.
Diverging price signals: strong in servers, topping out in consumer segment
Supply chain feedback reveals that third-quarter 2026 NAND prices for enterprise TLC SSDs jumped roughly 30% quarter-over-quarter, contrastingly sharply with flat or minimal growth in consumer lines. Concurrently, server DRAM climbed by about 20% QoQ, while legacy DDR3 and DDR4 prices spiked 30% to 40% as shrinking supply collided with mounting AI demand.
Meanwhile, the adoption of long-term agreements (LTAs) is flattening the industry’s typical price volatility. Current negotiations between memory makers and major clients feature price bands; the established price floors secure vendor profit margins and valuations, while the price ceilings cap any aggressive future price hikes.
Buyer behavior has split by memory type. Customers are willing to accept higher DRAM prices to guarantee supply, but they are resisting NAND hikes due to shrinking margins in consumer electronics.
Inventory metrics also signal caution. While manufacturers maintain historically low stockpiles, inventories have surged among module makers and consumer-grade distributors. According to distributors, underlying demand remains stable, but three consecutive quarters of aggressive price hikes have priced out smaller buyers and slowed down overall transactions, increasing inventory carrying burdens.
The Case for DRAM Superiority over NAND
> Superior Contract Terms: DRAM benefits from stronger long-term agreement (LTA) structures and a higher buyer willingness to pay for guaranteed supply.
> Robust Demand Visibility: AI computing and enterprise server needs provide a highly predictable demand runway.
> Disciplined Supply Expansion: Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography requirements and physical capacity bottlenecks act as a natural barrier to sudden oversupply.
> HBM4E Production Crowding: Shifting manufacturing lines toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM4E) is expected to further restrict standard DRAM output.
Preferring Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) Over Module Makers
Within the NAND ecosystem, IDMs offer significantly more resilient profit profiles and tighter control over physical supply than independent module makers.
> The Flaw in the Traditional Module Maker Model:
Historically, module makers thrived by buying cheap inventory at the cycle's trough and selling it during upswings. However, once this low-cost stock is depleted and margins peak, their stock prices usually face severe pressure.
> Structural Headwinds for Module Makers: Even if a multi-year, AI-driven LTA cycle stabilizes margins more than usual, module makers face distinct limits: their cheap inventory will vanish within the year, consumer price hikes will decelerate in H2 2026, and primary foundries are prioritizing shipments directly to Cloud Service Providers (CSPs).
> Enterprise Market Limitations: Hyperscale clients prefer buying directly from foundries. Because most Asian module makers still rely on consumer SSDs for 80% to 90% of their revenue, they cannot easily pivot to offset consumer electronics weakness.
Three Macro Risks to Monitor
> AI Capex Declines: This is the primary risk for memory valuations. If AI-related capital expenditure continues its upward trajectory, memory profitability could easily stretch past 2027.
> Consumer Sector Resistance: Smartphone and PC manufacturers are pushing back against further price hikes, prompting immediate order cuts and accumulating inventory at the distributor level. This could derail a generalized NAND recovery.
> The 2028 Supply Pivot: If wafer capacity expands prematurely, NAND could face an oversupply crisis by 2028. Conversely, if high-capacity AI inference SSDs (which consume three times the wafer volume of standard SSDs) hit mass production, the supply crunch could intensify instead.
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#存储 #内存 #镁光 #西数 #希捷 #闪迪
作为个人一些建议和看法：就美股现在的表现已经十分不值得投资了、就目前全球投资领域、
疯狂的涌入美股储存和半导体市场、光镁光、闪迪、西数、希捷、这两年来股票几乎上涨几十倍、很多币圈玩家都觉得这玩意儿有搞头有潜力、但是事实上还是需要破一泡冷水、
从去年DDR5内存条 300块可以买16G、到如今需要1000块才能买16G、最高峰值甚至达到1500才能买16G、包括DDR4\DDR3等已经老掉牙的内存条都出现的几何倍的涨价、
因为所以人都认为AI基建会加速内存显存颗粒的需求、必然会推动该类公司的业绩和股价、一窝蜂的去炒作、
但是别忘了、任何公司都是有市值牛市周期和熊市周期、如果在这个周期内去高位进入套在半山腰、极其有可能套住你一辈子甚至直到你嗝屁还没解套、而且这种几率按照目前存储股的趋势是无限接近100%、
虽然我自己也玩美股、但是也观察到了这段时间来的不稳定性和高波动率以及存储板块的市值无序增长、这和现有的规模是无法匹配的、
说句扎心的话：
内存+硬盘=不是什么特别高科技的产品、他远比CPU GPU制造难度更低、
就目前中国存储 长鑫长江扩产和当地政府的加大力度投资、存储供需关系就这一两年时间就会得到缓解、并且按照国内厂家的节奏只会卷价格、
不要老是听信什么存储空缺几年得不到缓解、这些话术无非是操作市场的油头、还是要多一些自我的判断、
比如你觉得镁光希捷闪迪西数达到多少万亿美金的市值、你觉得你现在是山顶还是山腰、不要抱着侥幸心理、
但凡一支股重仓挂山腰、那就真的是解套无望。
BTC跌下去可能涨上来、他本质是没有任何市值预估空间、BTC也本身不产生业绩也不和主流金融市场评估市值体量。
作为个人一些建议和看法：就美股现在的表现已经十分不值得投资了、就目前全球投资领域、
疯狂的涌入美股储存和半导体市场、光镁光、闪迪、西数、希捷、这两年来股票几乎上涨几十倍、很多币圈玩家都觉得这玩意儿有搞头有潜力、但是事实上还是需要破一泡冷水、
从去年DDR5内存条 300块可以买16G、到如今需要1000块才能买16G、最高峰值甚至达到1500才能买16G、包括DDR4\DDR3等已经老掉牙的内存条都出现的几何倍的涨价、
因为所以人都认为AI基建会加速内存显存颗粒的需求、必然会推动该类公司的业绩和股价、一窝蜂的去炒作、
但是别忘了、任何公司都是有市值牛市周期和熊市周期、如果在这个周期内去高位进入套在半山腰、极其有可能套住你一辈子甚至直到你嗝屁还没解套、而且这种几率按照目前存储股的趋势是无限接近100%、
虽然我自己也玩美股、但是也观察到了这段时间来的不稳定性和高波动率以及存储板块的市值无序增长、这和现有的规模是无法匹配的、
说句扎心的话：
内存+硬盘=不是什么特别高科技的产品、他远比CPU GPU制造难度更低、
就目前中国存储 长鑫长江扩产和当地政府的加大力度投资、存储供需关系就这一两年时间就会得到缓解、并且按照国内厂家的节奏只会卷价格、
不要老是听信什么存储空缺几年得不到缓解、这些话术无非是操作市场的油头、还是要多一些自我的判断、
比如你觉得镁光希捷闪迪西数达到多少万亿美金的市值、你觉得你现在是山顶还是山腰、不要抱着侥幸心理、
但凡一支股重仓挂山腰、那就真的是解套无望。
BTC跌下去可能涨上来、他本质是没有任何市值预估空间、BTC也本身不产生业绩也不和主流金融市场评估市值体量。
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讲个鬼故事👻：
整个资本市场的流动性几乎都被卖硬件的抽干了，而不是被AI抽干了💦
仅内存一项：美国美光 + 美国闪迪 +韩国海力士 +韩国三星 + 日本凯侠 ＞ 5万亿美金
AI才起步，资本市场的钱已经被硬件抽干了，支持把价格打下来，合理发展AI还给真实世界🌎
#AI #内存 #芯片 #硬件 #海力士 #美光
整个资本市场的流动性几乎都被卖硬件的抽干了，而不是被AI抽干了💦
仅内存一项：美国美光 + 美国闪迪 +韩国海力士 +韩国三星 + 日本凯侠 ＞ 5万亿美金
AI才起步，资本市场的钱已经被硬件抽干了，支持把价格打下来，合理发展AI还给真实世界🌎
#AI #内存 #芯片 #硬件 #海力士 #美光
这个世界有点 “癫” 了，一个做内存的既然市值超过了做社交矩阵的🪡
事出反常必有妖，这泡泡吹的有点大，这一波硬件吸血了整个资本市场，那么到底是谁在买单❓
这难道是最后的疯狂嘛❓
随着美光科技大涨📈，Meta小跌📉，完成了市值位置互换，美光超越Meta排名全球第11
全球市值前十大上市公司：
3⃣️Apple
4⃣️Microsoft
5⃣️Amazon
6⃣️TSMC
7⃣️Broadcom
8⃣️SpaceX
9⃣️Saudi Aramco
1⃣️0⃣️Tesla
11.美光
12.Meta
#美光 #meta #美股
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