Think back to 2006, last midterm w/ an unpopular war/GOP president. Where were the biggest House upsets? Places like IN, IA, KS, MN (Tim Walz!), NH, OH, WI, Upstate NY.

That's why I think the Midwest & places w/ lots of secular white voters are especially ripe for surprises.

New @CookPolitical: Amid ad uproar, #OHGOV moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/gover…

My personal hunch: if you're looking for upsets, they're more likely to be in places w/ lots of secular whites & independents (i.e. the Midwest) than in the Deep South.

Not totally unrelated: my lunch locale today.

New @CookPolitical: 19 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including six seats from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

New podcast: I took a look ahead at the key midterm races w/ @loujacobson & @MichaelLeePope in partnership w/ @Center4Politics. open.spotify.com/episode/6ewFCW…

New @CookPolitical: 11 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including five GOP seats from Likely R to Lean R. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

Look forward to discussing @CookPolitical’s midterm outlook on @cspanwj at 8am ET. Have a question about a competitive race? Be sure to call in.

A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that have swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest pro-Dem swings this year.

👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district):

Blake Gendebien (D) 46%
Anthony Constantino (R) 42%
Undecided 8%

Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.

New @CookPolitical: 18 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including four GOP incumbents from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

New @CookPolitical: Dems inch closer to Senate majority as three races move in their favor.

#KSSEN: Lean R to Toss Up
#NHSEN: Toss Up to Lean D
#NCSEN: Lean D to Likely D

Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…

New @CookPolitical: GOP on track to lose House majority as 15 race ratings shift towards Dems. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the "doubly disenchanted" - the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren't (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

New @CookPolitical: with less than six weeks to go, the fight for the Senate is a true Toss Up, with three races shifting towards Dems:

#GASEN: Lean D to Likely D
#KSSEN: Likely R to Lean R
#SCSEN: Solid R to Likely R

Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…

Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.

NEW @CookPolitical: our battleground district poll shows a seven point swing to Democrats in the most competitive House races vs. 2024, putting them in excellent position to win the House majority. Full analysis by @amyewalter and Carrie Dann: cookpolitical.com/analysis/surve…

In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.

cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.

cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…