Philip Aldrick retweeted
On Thursday I wrote about the 2014 injunction Russell Brand obtained against a woman who accused him of assault.
I've now obtained the final order. It's breathtaking.
She had no lawyer. No trial. Yet she was silenced for life - even barred from speaking to the police.
🧵:
I've now obtained the final order. It's breathtaking.
She had no lawyer. No trial. Yet she was silenced for life - even barred from speaking to the police.
🧵:
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
A core part of diagnosing Britain's malaise is that our post-2007 slowdown in productivity growth was much worse than our peers.
That may no longer be true. New ONS data suggests we actually had the *second-fastest* rate of productivity growth in the G7 between 2007 and 2019.
That may no longer be true. New ONS data suggests we actually had the *second-fastest* rate of productivity growth in the G7 between 2007 and 2019.
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
Burnham budget hopes for the best in turbulent times for the UK bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @PhilAldrick @Joe_Mayes
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
***BLOOMBERG BUDGET ANALYSIS***
John Healey’s modest budget achieved his main aim of avoiding an adverse market reaction.
But the cost-of-living support is small and will be swallowed up by coming rises to bills.
It is a long way off Andy Burnham’s pledge to rip up 40 years of neoliberalism and transform the economy.
And it could be out-of-date within days if Trump escalates against Iran and causes another energy price shock.
The question is: does this budget really meet voters’ expectations of the change Burnham is promising and mean Labour’s popularity continues to improve? Or will it mark a turning point as Healey struggles to live up to the PM’s rhetoric within the constraints of the manifesto, global headwinds and fiscal reality?
The IFS characterises the budget as “lots of fiddling, short-term things.” The Resolution Foundation says Healey has “spread the jam thin.” Kemi Badenoch asks: “Is that it?” Will this narrative take hold, or will Britons continue to be won over by the force of Burnham’s personality?
It also seems fair to ask what happened to his big ambitious ideas? There was not much on “public control” and nationalisation today. The council house building programme isn’t so revolutionary. There were no major reforms to council tax, capital gains tax, stamp duty, a land value tax, cutting the personal tax threshold, as he’s previously floated.
Healey’s commitment to spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030 won immediate praise from Zelenskyy and NATO. But deferring the decision on how to fund it means the next year will be very tough for the government. The spending review and next budget look painful, with big welfare cuts and tax rises likely needed.
The immediate fear in cabinet is Trump and Iran. UK officials believe it is likely the US military campaign is going to resume shortly. Resolution suggests that if there is serious escalation there it would wipe out Healey’s £15 billion headroom: “He doesn’t have enough to survive one bad roll of the dice.”
It leaves Burnham’s fate in the hands of Trump. That gives a whole new meaning to his strategy of “hope.”
With @PhilAldrick: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
John Healey’s modest budget achieved his main aim of avoiding an adverse market reaction.
But the cost-of-living support is small and will be swallowed up by coming rises to bills.
It is a long way off Andy Burnham’s pledge to rip up 40 years of neoliberalism and transform the economy.
And it could be out-of-date within days if Trump escalates against Iran and causes another energy price shock.
The question is: does this budget really meet voters’ expectations of the change Burnham is promising and mean Labour’s popularity continues to improve? Or will it mark a turning point as Healey struggles to live up to the PM’s rhetoric within the constraints of the manifesto, global headwinds and fiscal reality?
The IFS characterises the budget as “lots of fiddling, short-term things.” The Resolution Foundation says Healey has “spread the jam thin.” Kemi Badenoch asks: “Is that it?” Will this narrative take hold, or will Britons continue to be won over by the force of Burnham’s personality?
It also seems fair to ask what happened to his big ambitious ideas? There was not much on “public control” and nationalisation today. The council house building programme isn’t so revolutionary. There were no major reforms to council tax, capital gains tax, stamp duty, a land value tax, cutting the personal tax threshold, as he’s previously floated.
Healey’s commitment to spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030 won immediate praise from Zelenskyy and NATO. But deferring the decision on how to fund it means the next year will be very tough for the government. The spending review and next budget look painful, with big welfare cuts and tax rises likely needed.
The immediate fear in cabinet is Trump and Iran. UK officials believe it is likely the US military campaign is going to resume shortly. Resolution suggests that if there is serious escalation there it would wipe out Healey’s £15 billion headroom: “He doesn’t have enough to survive one bad roll of the dice.”
It leaves Burnham’s fate in the hands of Trump. That gives a whole new meaning to his strategy of “hope.”
With @PhilAldrick: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The borrowing figures as a share of GDP that Healey revealed at the start of his speech suggest borrowing will be higher in every year than forecast in March. He still meets his fiscal rules as the deficit falls between years 2 and 3 of the forecast, but from a new higher level.
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
BREAKING: Bank taxes will rise less steeply than feared by industry, with surcharge set to increase from 3% but not return to 8% rate it was before
Measure will also be temporary, as revealed by @alexwickham @Joe_Mayes @PhilAldrick
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Measure will also be temporary, as revealed by @alexwickham @Joe_Mayes @PhilAldrick
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: John Healey’s bank tax rise will be temporary and come in at less than 8%, Bloomberg understands
The hike is less steep than feared by the City
Story on @TheTerminal with @Joe_Mayes @PhilAldrick
The hike is less steep than feared by the City
Story on @TheTerminal with @Joe_Mayes @PhilAldrick
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
I say again: the best wealth tax is building more damn houses.
New from me:
Until recently, the gap between comfortably-off and just-getting-started could plausibly be crossed in a decade or two of hard work.
Growth in asset prices means that’s no longer true.
My column on moving from income world to wealth world: ft.com/content/6a3550…
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With Andy Burnham reopening the possibility of free movement to secure closer ties and a better deal with the EU, it might be worth revisiting these two pieces @BloombergUK published in the summer
First: how the options stack up
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
First: how the options stack up
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Second: how the politics and economics has unfolded over the past decade
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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A Swiss-style deal (possibly with some kind of free movement migration brake) seems plausible
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
🚨Today I'm launching a new Substack — The Political Economy of AI 🚨
Writing in a personal capacity, I'll be taking some foundational economic and policy concepts and stress-testing them against a world being reshaped by AI.
I'll be particularly focused on assessing things through an open economy lens and focused on the implications for countries outside of the US or China, such as the UK.
There is already a huge amount of interesting work thinking about AI's economic impact, but much treats it as a closed-economy problem, usually focused on the US.
The distributional question many ask is "which workers gain and which lose?" The question I think is underdiscussed is: which countries gain and which lose? That's the focus of the first piece, and it's a question that matters a lot for countries like the UK and India. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/raoulrupar…
Writing in a personal capacity, I'll be taking some foundational economic and policy concepts and stress-testing them against a world being reshaped by AI.
I'll be particularly focused on assessing things through an open economy lens and focused on the implications for countries outside of the US or China, such as the UK.
There is already a huge amount of interesting work thinking about AI's economic impact, but much treats it as a closed-economy problem, usually focused on the US.
The distributional question many ask is "which workers gain and which lose?" The question I think is underdiscussed is: which countries gain and which lose? That's the focus of the first piece, and it's a question that matters a lot for countries like the UK and India. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/raoulrupar…
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read
Andy Burnham confronts the nightmare of being PM under Trump. Does he have a plan?
— He might want to focus on domestic issues but the Ukraine crisis has pushed foreign policy to the top of his agenda. Privately government officials talk about a dark reality: Trump is simply not on the UK’s side on the fundamental issue of European security.
— It’s brought the special relationship to its lowest point in recent memory and poses Burnham a premiership-defining challenge, one senior official says. Even Churchill would find it difficult dealing with these global problems without Britain’s main ally and we have a novice in No10 by comparison, they say.
— The early Burnham-Trump relationship has been difficult. While Trump was polite in front of the cameras at their first meeting, behind-closed-doors he railed against Britain’s lack of support for his Iran war, sources say. On Fairford, Trump and the White House have said things, ie that a joint US-UK operation tailed the suspects and that they planned a spectacular drone attack, that just aren’t true, they add.
— Trump’s latest shift toward Russia leaves questions that Burnham’s government is struggling to answer, not least what is his strategy to handle the president and ensure Ukraine is not pressured into accepting an unjust outcome to the war.
— On taking office, Burnham decided to follow the Keir Starmer/Jonathan Powell approach of pursuing quiet diplomacy to persuade Trump into taking less hostile positions towards Europe. Advocates point to counterfactual scenarios that would have been much worse: Trump didn’t try to take Greenland by force, he hasn’t left NATO, he hasn’t stopped all intel and military support for Ukraine, he hasn’t fully sided with Putin.
— The UK’s key foreign policy aim beyond Ukraine is ensuring the transatlantic alliance does not collapse because that would realise Russia’s overarching strategic objective, an official said. Burnham and Britain’s role are more important than ever now Macron and Merz are declining powers, they say.
— But right now it’s hard to argue the strategy is working. Officials say the change of government means diplomatic relationships have had to be restarted from scratch. No10 has announced no phone call between Burnham and Trump since the diesel deal, nor any call between the PM and other European leaders. Officials note the lack of progress under the Coalition of the Willing format in recent months. UK pledges to secure more air defences for Ukraine, including from the US, have yet to deliver.
— If you ask the government what Britain is doing to help Ukraine, what conversations it’s having with the US to get them into a better place, what Burnham is doing with Macron and Merz, what’s happened to the coalition of the willing and where are the promised air defences, there is no answer.
— It is very important to say that veteran UK officials do not see the situation for Ukraine as dire. The US appears to have been pressured by Zelenskyy into restoring Starlink. Ukraine retains the ability to strike Russian oil refineries even without US support. Russia is militarily and economically weak and desperate, and that is why Putin is so keen for Trump to up pressure on Zelenskyy, they add. Britain is sending more Storm Shadows.
— Burnham told Bloomberg in Kyiv in August that he sees a progressive resurgence across the world in response to failed populism, including possibly in the US. In other words, he’s looking forward to a post-Trump world. But he still has to find a way to deal with him now. And the reality is, even if it’s Trump’s fault, an adverse outcome in Ukraine would be what Burnham’s premiership is remembered for.
With @ChaplainChloe: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Andy Burnham confronts the nightmare of being PM under Trump. Does he have a plan?
— He might want to focus on domestic issues but the Ukraine crisis has pushed foreign policy to the top of his agenda. Privately government officials talk about a dark reality: Trump is simply not on the UK’s side on the fundamental issue of European security.
— It’s brought the special relationship to its lowest point in recent memory and poses Burnham a premiership-defining challenge, one senior official says. Even Churchill would find it difficult dealing with these global problems without Britain’s main ally and we have a novice in No10 by comparison, they say.
— The early Burnham-Trump relationship has been difficult. While Trump was polite in front of the cameras at their first meeting, behind-closed-doors he railed against Britain’s lack of support for his Iran war, sources say. On Fairford, Trump and the White House have said things, ie that a joint US-UK operation tailed the suspects and that they planned a spectacular drone attack, that just aren’t true, they add.
— Trump’s latest shift toward Russia leaves questions that Burnham’s government is struggling to answer, not least what is his strategy to handle the president and ensure Ukraine is not pressured into accepting an unjust outcome to the war.
— On taking office, Burnham decided to follow the Keir Starmer/Jonathan Powell approach of pursuing quiet diplomacy to persuade Trump into taking less hostile positions towards Europe. Advocates point to counterfactual scenarios that would have been much worse: Trump didn’t try to take Greenland by force, he hasn’t left NATO, he hasn’t stopped all intel and military support for Ukraine, he hasn’t fully sided with Putin.
— The UK’s key foreign policy aim beyond Ukraine is ensuring the transatlantic alliance does not collapse because that would realise Russia’s overarching strategic objective, an official said. Burnham and Britain’s role are more important than ever now Macron and Merz are declining powers, they say.
— But right now it’s hard to argue the strategy is working. Officials say the change of government means diplomatic relationships have had to be restarted from scratch. No10 has announced no phone call between Burnham and Trump since the diesel deal, nor any call between the PM and other European leaders. Officials note the lack of progress under the Coalition of the Willing format in recent months. UK pledges to secure more air defences for Ukraine, including from the US, have yet to deliver.
— If you ask the government what Britain is doing to help Ukraine, what conversations it’s having with the US to get them into a better place, what Burnham is doing with Macron and Merz, what’s happened to the coalition of the willing and where are the promised air defences, there is no answer.
— It is very important to say that veteran UK officials do not see the situation for Ukraine as dire. The US appears to have been pressured by Zelenskyy into restoring Starlink. Ukraine retains the ability to strike Russian oil refineries even without US support. Russia is militarily and economically weak and desperate, and that is why Putin is so keen for Trump to up pressure on Zelenskyy, they add. Britain is sending more Storm Shadows.
— Burnham told Bloomberg in Kyiv in August that he sees a progressive resurgence across the world in response to failed populism, including possibly in the US. In other words, he’s looking forward to a post-Trump world. But he still has to find a way to deal with him now. And the reality is, even if it’s Trump’s fault, an adverse outcome in Ukraine would be what Burnham’s premiership is remembered for.
With @ChaplainChloe: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
UK’s Miliband calls for Brexit reform and better EU relations bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @PhilAldrick
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
BOE’s Bailey berates social media platforms for allowing fraud bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @PhilAldrick
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
UK needs to slash spending to fund its defense buildup, the IMF warns bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @PhilAldrick
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Philip Aldrick retweeted
IMF’s Tenreyro tells the UK to ‘stay the course’ on its fiscal plans bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @PhilAldrick
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The "breathing space" budget it shaping up to be one of short-term giveaways to preserve long-term fiscal discipline. Temporary support for households and businesses (6mths perhaps) costs less and doesn't hit the fiscal rules. as @Joe_Mayes writes today bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The Treasury has tweaked the OBR arrangements to make the process more manageable. It told the OBR to prepare a "round zero" forecast before starting the 10 week budget run-in. Previously the chx had to wait almost 2 weeks to see what he was working with. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Britain has a “strategic and economic vulnerability” from its reliance on US cloud providers, where UK holds tax, health and defence data. Washington had the power to switch public services off and demand personal data under overarching US law.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Science, innovation and tech committee chair Chi Onwurah, AI minister Kanishka Narayan and ONS director general James Benford have warned of threats to UK sovereignty
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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