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McCullough: This Hike Will Look Like A Policy Mistake
🔊
On the Free Edition of The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough covered why the Fed is set up for a policy mistake.
Inflation reports lag the economy, and the next couple are still ticking up, which raise rates in December.
As Keith put it, that hike “is going to look like a policy mistake,” because it lands just as the AI bubble and the credit tied to it start to crack.
Raising rates into a slowdown is how a wobble becomes a panic, and when that panic hits, the Fed does what it always does, cuts rates, which only makes it worse.
The tell is in the bond market.
Longer-term yields are already falling because they see growth and inflation slowing ahead.
Keith also flagged the timing, the last major cycle peaked in October 2007, the same month he was fired from Carlyle for being too bearish, right before the crash.
Watch the full episode of The Macro Show here: app.hedgeye.com/insights/18940…
🔊
On the Free Edition of The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough covered why the Fed is set up for a policy mistake.
Inflation reports lag the economy, and the next couple are still ticking up, which raise rates in December.
As Keith put it, that hike “is going to look like a policy mistake,” because it lands just as the AI bubble and the credit tied to it start to crack.
Raising rates into a slowdown is how a wobble becomes a panic, and when that panic hits, the Fed does what it always does, cuts rates, which only makes it worse.
The tell is in the bond market.
Longer-term yields are already falling because they see growth and inflation slowing ahead.
Keith also flagged the timing, the last major cycle peaked in October 2007, the same month he was fired from Carlyle for being too bearish, right before the crash.
Watch the full episode of The Macro Show here: app.hedgeye.com/insights/18940…
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Cyber November is when our best deals of the year happen.
Shop the sale: app.hedgeye.com/su/Cyber2026
Shop the sale: app.hedgeye.com/su/Cyber2026
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BREAKING: Healthcare, $XLV, pushes +2.7% to new all-time highs for #HedgeyeNation
Healthcare remains our Largest Sector Allocation.
Healthcare remains our Largest Sector Allocation.
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Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough has called every stock market crash since 2008.
Now he’s calling the next Quad 4.
“First half of 2027, that’s pretty definitively Quad 4.”
Read the full note 👇
Now he’s calling the next Quad 4.
“First half of 2027, that’s pretty definitively Quad 4.”
Read the full note 👇
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Hedgeye retweeted
Phone ringing off hook.
Watch this below from 1 month ago to see how to trade AI and what is going to happen next.
@KeithMcCullough
@Hedgeye
For free on YouTube
The AI Bubble and the Market Risks Ahead w/ Mike Ta... youtu.be/UGq4BsQAsvQ?is… via @YouTube
Watch this below from 1 month ago to see how to trade AI and what is going to happen next.
@KeithMcCullough
@Hedgeye
For free on YouTube
The AI Bubble and the Market Risks Ahead w/ Mike Ta... youtu.be/UGq4BsQAsvQ?is… via @YouTube
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Is the economy strong or weak? Wrong question.
Is growth accelerating or decelerating? How about inflation?
That's the GIP Model.
Two rates of change, four Quads, and a different set of winners and losers in each.
The Quads are global too. Different countries can sit in same time.
Three questions run the whole framework. Where are we? Where are we headed? How should we be positioned?
Full guide below. Start learning the process at app.hedgeye.com/education
Is growth accelerating or decelerating? How about inflation?
That's the GIP Model.
Two rates of change, four Quads, and a different set of winners and losers in each.
The Quads are global too. Different countries can sit in same time.
Three questions run the whole framework. Where are we? Where are we headed? How should we be positioned?
Full guide below. Start learning the process at app.hedgeye.com/education
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🇮🇩 Indonesian stocks have crashed -17.6% in the last month alone.
Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough added $IDX
as a short in ETF Pro Plus on September 21.
Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough added $IDX
as a short in ETF Pro Plus on September 21.
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Learn more about our Go-Anywhere investing process: app.hedgeye.com/insights/18940…
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"These walls are funny. First you hate 'em. Then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, you get so you depend on 'em." - Red, The Shawshank Redemption
Same goes for bubbles.
First you hate getting squeezed by one. Then you start buying the damn dips in it. Enough time passes, you depend on it.
Then the walls close in.
That's how the Macro Tourist gets institutionalized. Every bubble. Every cycle.
Andy Dufresne didn't wait for the walls to close before he started digging. He had a plan years ahead of time.
Yours can be a lot simpler than a rock hammer and a poster. Know your MAX size before you buy. Know your TRADE and TREND lines. Know exactly what you do when both break.
Same goes for bubbles.
First you hate getting squeezed by one. Then you start buying the damn dips in it. Enough time passes, you depend on it.
Then the walls close in.
That's how the Macro Tourist gets institutionalized. Every bubble. Every cycle.
Andy Dufresne didn't wait for the walls to close before he started digging. He had a plan years ahead of time.
Yours can be a lot simpler than a rock hammer and a poster. Know your MAX size before you buy. Know your TRADE and TREND lines. Know exactly what you do when both break.
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