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ANNOUNCING

Today, we're launching the $100M Anthology Fund, an Anthropic and Menlo Ventures partnership to fund Seed and Series As of the next generation of AI startups around the world, with unique benefits!

There's never been a better time in technology to be building.

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The last 18mos has seen an insane nearly ~$200B of AI startup exits via M&A.

The median age is 4yrs old.

It is absolutely possible to return a multibillion dollar venture fund with phenomenal IRR, even if you aren’t in big AI! This is one of the hottest liquidity markets ever.
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Replying to @deedydas
This does not include the $250B SpaceX-XAI merger and several non AI acquisitions (Armis, Chronosphere, Semrush)

I wonder, if such large returns happen through M&A, much of which is strategic and not tied to fundamentals, how should that change how VCs think about investing and valuations?
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There is no faster city for flying than San Francisco.

9:10pm: Leave house
9:32pm: Arrive at SFO
9:40pm: Get to gate
9:43pm: Boarding starts
9:48pm: At seat

I’ve never done a 38min house-seat time before.
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Zuck learning the bitter lesson:
Mark Zuckerberg pretending to enjoy Guinness is my new favourite thing.
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I made a short 5 min documentary on the greatest moments of Indian history from 1947 to today
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Replying to @deedydas
made with clopus 5.5, music on eleven, narrated with gemini, bfl flux for upscaling and colorizing
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Meta Muse's retention is out, and it's almost as good as ChatGPT!

It's higher than ChatGPT at D7 (>30%) and just lower at D14 (22%). Not quite in the elite D14 tier of WA (67%) YT (59%) Insta (54%) or TikTok/Snap (37%), though.

Muse is one of the highest retaining AI products!
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Replying to @deedydas
source: sensortower
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Met a kid today who taught himself AI with LLMs at 14 while barely speaking English, worked a 1yr long internship in a top AI company, flew across the world to attend a top 10 US undergrad, dropped out in 2 weeks, and has 5 ~$1M+ job offers from the top neolabs in SF at age 17.

Traditional education is so dead.

The young kids today are just built different.
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Replying to @deedydas
One of my favorite things he said to me when I asked him why not finish college is "SF vibe just hits different. I feel like everyone is so cracked and wants to do the same kind of things I do. I just want to learn. I don't care at all about the money."
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Replying to @deedydas
Keeping him private!
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The smartest Indians continue to come to build in the US for the simple reason that the economic incentives are far far better.

Perplexity ($20B), Skild ($14B+), Baseten ($13B), Together ($8B), Glean ($8B), Modal ($5B), Rubrik ($25B), Harness ($5B), Blacksmith, Parallel, Greptile, CodeRabbit, Composio, Distyl ($2B), Resolve, Luma, Cartesia, Wispr, dMatrix, Arize and many more - all started by at least one Indian-born founder.

The US is a far easier to raise capital in with far less dilution. Most Indian companies are switching where they're domiciled to get access to the US capital markets. Every single Indian venture firm is trying very hard to invest in the US or risk not participating in the AI race (ironically, the management fees of venture firms are so high in India relatively that this is the one group that net of carry actually has incentive to be in India because they take home well north of a living wage whether or not funds perform do)

While Zomato ($35B now, $8B at IPO) might be the biggest outcome in Indian venture, Cursor ($60B), Reflection (potentially $20B+), World Labs ($8B), OpenRouter ($8B), HuggingFace ($12B) and of course the $1T+ big labs quickly make those outcomes seem small and happen on a much smaller time scale, with much higher IRR.

Engineers at these startups regularly get paid $1M/yr, and make $10M+ on exit. Even in BigTech, it is trivial to pull up levels fyi and see that if you're L6/L7+ with ~10 years of experience, you're making $1M/yr there too. And of course, we all know the slew of Indian CEOs of companies here, not to mention a huge bench of lesser known executives across the board in public and private companies.

I say all this because every time there is a slight immigration hiccup in the US, I hear the online pleas to "build in India", I struggle to understand why most engineers, academics or founders would do that net of desire to be close to family, failure to obtain visa and devout patriotism.

This is not a superiority thing or a US v India thing. The economic incentives at least for technologists to being in the US outweigh India by at least an order of magnitude.
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Replying to @deedydas
And to those who worship the church of PPP, no, for obvious reasons of career headroom, I do not think making 50lpa in Whitefield is the ultimate checkmate against the argument of economic incentives.
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Replying to @deedydas
Yes, immigration is harder than it's ever been.
Yes, more Indians want to stay back in India today than ever before.
Yes, there are actually are plenty of phenomenal opportunities in India.
And yes, obviously you can also make tremendous amounts of wealth in India.

These are exceptions. On average, the economic incentive to being in the US still greatly exceed that of India. This is why I empirically see so many founders, academics and engineers continue to desire to move here even though online rhetoric might have you believe no one does that any more.
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I used Opus to convert OR's public token stats into $$ stats.

A whopping ~$1.5B annualized run rate (week x 52) gets processed on OpenRouter, putting it at ~1% by dollars of total inference.

This week, Anthropic took 36% of spend, OpenAI 18% and open-weight models took 26%!
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Replying to @deedydas
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OpenAI tells investors their annualized revenue is $50B for end of September, up from $30B in July, short of the $70B previously reported.

Anthropic was at $65B annualized end of July.
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Replying to @deedydas
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The US DoL has suspended new and pending PERMs from prominent WITCH Indian IT companies (Wipro, Infosys, TCS, Cognizant, HCL, Capgemini) and Microsoft and Adobe.

This means their H-1B employees will be subject to a 6yr cap with no extensions and not have a green card pathway.
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Replying to @deedydas
This is justifiable for IT companies, although the list of offenders is far larger than the top 6 companies listed here.

It’s far more surprising that Microsoft and Adobe were affected. Wasn’t clear why they were particularly singled out.
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